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Dr Faustus's Account Talk
- Thread starter DrFaustus
- Start date
View attachment 3072 View attachment 3073
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These charts didn't come out as well as I would have liked ... guess I have some work to do to get them to import well. (the reduction process was not kind) As you can see however, the F-fund is still performing very wel, the C and I funds are flirting with a buy signal and the S fund just can't seem to find any traction.
Based on this, I have to say ....
sssssst ... sssssst .... [broken record imitation] ... If you're in F, stay in F ... otherwise, go to G.
View attachment 3074 View attachment 3075
These charts didn't come out as well as I would have liked ... guess I have some work to do to get them to import well. (the reduction process was not kind) As you can see however, the F-fund is still performing very wel, the C and I funds are flirting with a buy signal and the S fund just can't seem to find any traction.
Based on this, I have to say ....
sssssst ... sssssst .... [broken record imitation] ... If you're in F, stay in F ... otherwise, go to G.
tspgo_com
Active member
Dr F....I'm new to the site and have reviewed some of your posts...good stuff. I'm looking for some friendly advice from the folks out there. I've got 15 years to go in my Govt service. I've never really taken time to evaluate the different options in the Thrift plan....with that, and considering the current environment, would anyone consider moving to one of the L funds? If not, what funds are the best bet right now?
Thx
Thx
Thanks M59M ... glad you like the information we're presenting!
What I would do first is take a look at the current level of your TSP and compare that to where you want to be when you retire. This will give you an idea of what kind of returns you will need to generate to get where you want to go. Once you have that information, you'll have a better idea of where to put your money.
The L-funds are good investments for those people who don't want to actively manage their money. Multiple factors can influence this decision: market knowledge, level of sustainable effort, etc. Personally, I prefer to control my funds myself. At least I have only myself to blame if I blow it. Given the current environment ... I wouldn't touch the L-funds with a 10-foot pole. But, that's me.
As for what funds are the best right now ... well, that depends on whether you mean in the short term, mid term or long term. In the short term, well ... you have to decide what fund is going to do well tomorrow. You have to weigh the news, the trends, etc. Two people can look at the same data and come up with different results. In the Mid-Term (a couple of weeks), well ... the F-fund is doing very well right now. I would define long term as being a year or more and for that, I would choose some mix of the stock funds.
As for me, I was doing well as a market timer (one of the 3000!) until the TSP Board decided to clamp down on us. Now I'm trying to learn how to invest for the mid-term, which is why I've been putting together my own charts, etc. I would love to be in the F-fund right now but I can't make myself buy it right now since it's above the high bollinger band. So I'm sitting on the sidelines in G.
Sorry ... didn't mean to get preachy. There are a lot of folks on this board who are more knowledgeable than me: Griffin, Tom (tsptalk), TspGo, Birchtree, Show-Me, James, etc. They are all pleasant to talk to and willing to help.
Good Luck!
Dan
Thanks Dan...great insight. I've moved everything to G (50%) and F (50%). I agree with your outlook. I myself would prefer to be aggressive knowing that I've got close to 20 years before I'd want to touch the $$...but I'm panicking a bit seeing my Thrift getting hammered! Guess I need to stop being a chicken!
I have some 20 years to go myself. Started life as a Fed in '84 at White Sands but I took a job with Raytheon in Tucson in late '04 due to life circumstances. Due to the SS component of my retirement package, I am looking to retire at 67, but I am working hard to reduce my dependence upon SS. I consider anything I get there to be gravy.
I've always had a hands-on approach to my TSP, even more so since I moved. I currently have a goal of 12% per year - but I try for about 15; the idea being that if I go for 15, I can be more assured of reaching 12.
This MB has helped me a lot over that time. My sister, God love her, was trained in International Finance and is always pushing me into a 'buy and hold' position or to use Dollar Cost Averaging. But I'm a whole hog kinda guy -- I'm either all in a fund or I'm all out.
(Besides, she doesn't know a thing about the TSP anyway)
Great meeting ya on the board ... look forward to reading your posts in the future!
Dan
I've always had a hands-on approach to my TSP, even more so since I moved. I currently have a goal of 12% per year - but I try for about 15; the idea being that if I go for 15, I can be more assured of reaching 12.
This MB has helped me a lot over that time. My sister, God love her, was trained in International Finance and is always pushing me into a 'buy and hold' position or to use Dollar Cost Averaging. But I'm a whole hog kinda guy -- I'm either all in a fund or I'm all out.
(Besides, she doesn't know a thing about the TSP anyway)Great meeting ya on the board ... look forward to reading your posts in the future!
Dan
Well, what can I say ... the F fund continues to perform well. The C and I funds had been flirting with a buy signal but got beat down yesterday and it looks likely that will continue today. The S-fund ... well, all I can say about it is that I believe it is building potential. The mantra continues ... if you're in F, stay there. Otherwise, catch the G train.
Hallatauer
Member
Hunkered down in the F Fund... hopefully this storm will pass soon.. I mean soon as within a year, and we can get back to business.
Rod
Well-known member
I was 50 (F) and bailed... don't trust what may impend the bond markets.
I would say so ... the F-Fund hasn't crossed the 10-DMA sell signal that I've been looking at, so that's why I've been suggesting that if you hold it, continue to hold it. I can't make myself buy right now because of the downside potential but man, am I itching to do so!
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Hey Doc,
I sure appreciate your updates.
CB
I sure appreciate your updates.
CB
Hey Doc,
I sure appreciate your updates.
CB
LOL ... well, I wish there were more to say. The F-fund continues to remain above the 10-DMA line while everything else is crashing through one basement level after another.
I wish I could buy the F-fund but, and this is kinda wierd to say, its current strength is preventing me from doing so. If I were to buy today, what would happen if it lost steam in the next couple of days? We'd hit the sell signal and I'd be out bux.
So, while the G fund isn't making money hand over fist, it sure as hell isn't losing anything. And in this market, that aint so bad.
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Yeah, I got yesterdays nice little bump in the F fund, but I moved to the g for today, just for the reason you mentioned, the F Fund is pretty high, so I figured this is going to be a lean year and to do as much CP as possible and try to pick my spots.
CB
CB
Hallatauer
Member
I've been in the F Fund for over two weeks now and have enjoyed a nice gain/recovery with it. But, I agree, it may be time to get out while the gettins good. I'm going to IFT today to the G Fund for tomorrow.
Well, that was quite a day yesterday! And it looks like the I fund is going to follow suit today, the FTSE was up 250 points as I was leaving the homestead.
Due to yesterday's huge bounce, the S fund is now flirting with a buy signal. It is just 2 cents below the -1 sigma value of 17.86 cents and the trending curve is showing a turn around as well. If the S fund is looking good at around 11:30 Eastern today, I will probably buy.
As of today, I am up 0.24% this year, due to my sitting on the sidelines in the G fund while wishing I had gotten into the F in late Dec.
View attachment 3145
Due to yesterday's huge bounce, the S fund is now flirting with a buy signal. It is just 2 cents below the -1 sigma value of 17.86 cents and the trending curve is showing a turn around as well. If the S fund is looking good at around 11:30 Eastern today, I will probably buy.
As of today, I am up 0.24% this year, due to my sitting on the sidelines in the G fund while wishing I had gotten into the F in late Dec.
View attachment 3145
