- Reaction score
- 2,095
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Dr Faustus's Account Talk
- Thread starter DrFaustus
- Start date
Robo5555
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 8
Seems like the right place to be considering the latest action.
caymanbrac12
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 9
The market has become very oversold based Friday's action. Also the TRIN closed way above the 3.0 level on Friday which indicates a lot of panic from investors. Thus it appears an oversold bounce is nearing and could develop by Monday or Tuesday.
The best thing that could happen on Monday would be for a gap down right at the open which would give us a more favorable entry price. However it's possible the market could gap up substantially at the open as well so if that happens there really isn't much we can do about it. 
The USM Futures today are predicting a bounce for the market. However, it's too late for any of us to take advantage of it. At least the G should pay today.
Based on Bollinger Banding, the F fund appears to be overbought and the stock funds (C,S and I) appear to be oversold. With all of the sliding that has been happening however, I am going to wait for a clearer signal to get in. Right now, I like the G and the F funds. I am still 100% at this point however, unless someone can talk me into doing something else.
Based on Bollinger Banding, the F fund appears to be overbought and the stock funds (C,S and I) appear to be oversold. With all of the sliding that has been happening however, I am going to wait for a clearer signal to get in. Right now, I like the G and the F funds. I am still 100% at this point however, unless someone can talk me into doing something else.
Barney
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 5
Dr. Faustus,
I will be posting my interpretation of these Bollingerbands in my account talk after this message. I also see the F-Fund is overbought and went above the 3SDEV.
Check out my charts.
Um ... I meant 100% G.
Well, we're seeing a bounce in the early going today (it's 10:23 EST as I write this). Is this the beginnings of a turn-around in the USMs? Based on Bollinger Banding, there is a buy signal for the C and S funds today (well, actually yesterday), but neither the C or S fund prices have climbed above the 20 day moving average.
Based on this, I think there might be some cause for optimism that the markets are starting to turn, but it is just too risky to get in now given our new found freedoms (uh, sorry .. limitations) in the TSP. So I am going to remain in G for now.
Based on this, I think there might be some cause for optimism that the markets are starting to turn, but it is just too risky to get in now given our new found freedoms (uh, sorry .. limitations) in the TSP. So I am going to remain in G for now.
qibovin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
I didn't think this was to take place until April (if it does.) Did you get a letter?
No, no letter yet. But I expect one any day.
The F-fund is still going like gang-busters but we may be seeing the beginnings of a downturn in that fund, especially if stocks come back. However, neither the C or S funds have broken the 1-sigma bollinger band, so I wouldn't buy into those just yet. The I-fund **may** be breaking that line, but it is still on an overall downward trend, so right now I would consider that risky.
IMHO, If you're in F ... stay in F. Otherwise, switch to G.
IMHO, If you're in F ... stay in F. Otherwise, switch to G.
12%ayear
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 30
5 stars for you
I would stay in the F-fund until the price goes below the 10 DMA. Another sell indicator might be if the price falls below the +1 sigma on the bollinger band. Pick whichever one suits your palette.
Well, it looks like the market is going to get beat up today, so staying out stocks remains a good idea as all will be well below their buy indicators if the futures hold.
At 12.03, the F-fund remains above the 10 DMA figure of 11.99. Given the USM futures today, I don't believe we're in jeopardy of going below that figure.
The C-fund had a healthy return yesterday but at 16.03, it remains below the -1 sigma bollinger band value of 16.06. Based on today's futures, I don't believe we are in danger of crossing that boundary. In addition, the price trendline is still showing a healthy down-slope. So I wouldn't consider this a buy indicator yet.
The S-fund had a good day yesterday as well, closing at 18.64, but the story remains similar to that of the C-fund. The only difference between the two is that the S-fund is further away from the -1 sigma value of 18.90.
At 24.02, the I-fund actually crossed the -1 sigma value of 23.95 yesterday. But the trendline of this fund is still showing a healthy negative slope. Also factor in that there was a huge +FV yesterday and that the OSMs are showing some big losses today. Therefore, this doesn't look like a good buying opportunity either.
So, the sum of all of that is this: If you're already holding the F-fund, I'd continue to stick with that ... otherwise, go to G.
At 12.03, the F-fund remains above the 10 DMA figure of 11.99. Given the USM futures today, I don't believe we're in jeopardy of going below that figure.
The C-fund had a healthy return yesterday but at 16.03, it remains below the -1 sigma bollinger band value of 16.06. Based on today's futures, I don't believe we are in danger of crossing that boundary. In addition, the price trendline is still showing a healthy down-slope. So I wouldn't consider this a buy indicator yet.
The S-fund had a good day yesterday as well, closing at 18.64, but the story remains similar to that of the C-fund. The only difference between the two is that the S-fund is further away from the -1 sigma value of 18.90.
At 24.02, the I-fund actually crossed the -1 sigma value of 23.95 yesterday. But the trendline of this fund is still showing a healthy negative slope. Also factor in that there was a huge +FV yesterday and that the OSMs are showing some big losses today. Therefore, this doesn't look like a good buying opportunity either.
So, the sum of all of that is this: If you're already holding the F-fund, I'd continue to stick with that ... otherwise, go to G.
At 12.08, the F-fund remains above the 10 DMA figure of 12.02.
The C-fund continues its downward slope and, at 15.81, remains below the -1 sigma Bollinger Band figure of 16.00. This makes it a risky investment, IMHO, one that I would avoid.
The outlook for the S-fund isn't any better. At 18.34, it is well below it's -1 sigma Bollinger Band value of 18.78 and has a negative slope on it's price trend as well. I think the same advice for C holds for this fund as well ... stay away.
The I-fund flirted with a buy signal but was totally destroyed on Friday, it's current value of 23.67 lying well below the -1 sigma BB value of 23.92. On Thursday, the slope of the pricing trend looked like it might be turning positive but that turned out to be a false hope as it is still significantly negative.
I hate to sound like a broken record ... but I continue to say what I've said before: If you're in F, stay in F. Otherwise, run to G.
The C-fund continues its downward slope and, at 15.81, remains below the -1 sigma Bollinger Band figure of 16.00. This makes it a risky investment, IMHO, one that I would avoid.
The outlook for the S-fund isn't any better. At 18.34, it is well below it's -1 sigma Bollinger Band value of 18.78 and has a negative slope on it's price trend as well. I think the same advice for C holds for this fund as well ... stay away.
The I-fund flirted with a buy signal but was totally destroyed on Friday, it's current value of 23.67 lying well below the -1 sigma BB value of 23.92. On Thursday, the slope of the pricing trend looked like it might be turning positive but that turned out to be a false hope as it is still significantly negative.
I hate to sound like a broken record ... but I continue to say what I've said before: If you're in F, stay in F. Otherwise, run to G.
The_Technician
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 15
Yeap, F fund has been outperforming the others quite significantly since the 27 of Dec......up 2.4% verses 9-10% down for the S and 2% or so down for the I and 6.5% down for the C....
Shaky is the word for the markets right now....I'b be looking for some further comments soon on Carnac's Corner.....
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