Dr Faustus's Account Talk

[SkyPilot]

Bears? Birchtree! Where's that coming from? I'm a newbie and wouldn't presume to even pretend to have any amount of technical knowledge like you seem to possess, only that - we like bears, don't we? Bring 'em on. The more bears the merrier, right? Among others, I've been reading your posts too, and say...
- surf's up!
One day, a dull one at that, is just a little rest, an opportunity, to get ready for the big set coming!! I think Dr F was just saying he likes volatility (I agree). It creates opportunity.

BTW, Dr. F, I have been playing stocks as spreads, based on Ebb and you, etc., -rather than individual funds daily - alot like you did today.

Overall - I'm wondering why TSPtalk in general doesn't play this sort of strategy more? For example, I often lags C & S by a day (just a follow-the-leader play) Any thoughts, or worth a separate post/forum topic??

Yep, it's just that easy... why didn't we think of that?

 

[DrFaustus]

Arrrrgh for those of you keeping track .. I misread today's pattern. (thanks Hessian!) Should have been pattern 8 ... I read it as a 7. [Insert lame apology] Sorry - have been kind of stressed out lately.

5.8 3 hits; +0.08, +0.26, +3.16, +3.20, +4.31
8.1 3 hits; +0.17, +0.18, +0.45, +1.16, +0.71

Again, I'm sorry

 

[DrFaustus]

Bears? Birchtree! Where's that coming from? I'm a newbie and wouldn't presume to even pretend to have any amount of technical knowledge like you seem to possess, only that - we like bears, don't we? Bring 'em on. The more bears the merrier, right? Among others, I've been reading your posts too, and say...
- surf's up!
One day, a dull one at that, is just a little rest, an opportunity, to get ready for the big set coming!! I think Dr F was just saying he likes volatility (I agree). It creates opportunity.

BTW, Dr. F, I have been playing stocks as spreads, based on Ebb and you, etc., -rather than individual funds daily - alot like you did today.

Overall - I'm wondering why TSPtalk in general doesn't play this sort of strategy more? For example, I often lags C & S by a day (just a follow-the-leader play) Any thoughts, or worth a separate post/forum topic??

I've noticed that myself and have played that way several times. Personally, I think its because the US leads the way!

 

[Wolverine]

LOL........Paladin

 

[budnipper1]

If a bear poops in the woods and there's no one around, does it still smell?

Uh, yeah...a bear smells, and that poop stinks like $#!& !
..'specially later on, while your scraping it off the bottom of your shoe.

 

[hessian]

OK,
e'nuf already about smelly bears, what do ya think? Great one Paladin, all just having some fun with Birchtree/his comment - I think desire was to cheer up Dr F. Definitely, no disrespect intended! Maybe we should get back to business.

Dr F's efforts and advice has been a great asset for many of us. Seems Ebbchart hasnt given us a post for today (guess the free ride is over) - so wondering what happens next! Personally, I'd love to have Dr. F's added double-pattern for tomorrow, and for coming weeks and months (and assume I'm speaking for many other's as well).

I wish I had a suggestion for Dr F., but I'm at a total loss what to suggest. I definitely see more value with Dr, F's double patterns than Ebb's single calls. (The latter always seemed to me to be needing more work/missing something - all the x-checks, "contrarian" plays, substitute calls, not to mention "off plays". I know no system will ever be perfect, but...). Just MHO. Sometimes it really needs to be said: Thanks Dr F.

 

[DrFaustus]

Mmmmm .... looks like we might make some money today based upon the way the markets are moving. So what is going to happen on Friday? The 5-day charts for each of the equity funds doesn't look promising ... After the big move on Monday, the C fund is trending slightly down, S is relatively flat, and the I fund seems to be trending down as well. So we appear to be a volatile stage in the market. The US markets have gone below the opening value but have come back - its possible they might cross it again. But maybe not. Either way, I'm thinking ... run to G. So its 100% G for me on Friday.

 

[DrFaustus]

Man, I missed the train on Friday. Guess that's the way it goes sometimes. Since transactions that would have been processed tonight will be processed Tuesday night, I'm stuck in G until then.

Stock futures are coming down this morning, but the overall market looks pretty strong. Might be a good opportunity to buy in. But I'm going to wait until Tues morning to decide upon that.

 

[hessian]

Dr F:
Going to try a cut&paste from a different post that I made (hope this works). Basically, below provides rational why I think your move to "G" Friday may have been good. (Its what I did also for Tues, but for reasons below...)
_________________________________________________________

hessian

vbmenu_register 10-05-2007, ("postmenu_120704", 11239 true); Newbie Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7

Re: 12%ayear's Account Talk
Jeff, 350,
While its important whether/not a future rate cut is coming, it seems almost futile trying to out-guess the Fed (look at last time) - i think its how they want it. Just focusing just on Tuesday's FOMC minutes, and trying to figure out the effect of the minutes for next week (or 2)...
Here's what we know:
- their last 50/50 cuts were largely intended to resolve "confidence" - people's & corporate uncertainty in the market;
- All "hard" issues are still out there.

Speculation:
- Fed's hope was, and still is, to buy time (maybe problems resolve themselves over time), in either case current problems are pushed down the road to to sometime (hopefully, maybe) where conditions may be more condusive to resolution.
- Just 2 months ago the Fed's main concern was inflation - there are negative effects of cuts, and this on their radar (though they won't admit it publicly).
________________________________________

How much of this will be alluded to in the FOMC minutes is unknown (as 350 suggested). If (big if) some of this comes out, how would the market respond next week (or 2)?
I expect that mintues will say - they will be monitoring all this closely - could be taken to mean a tightening move is NOT off the table - depends how things look [at next meeting]! Again, how will the market respond ??

Mostly, my thinking was worry on reaction to those FOMC Minutes on Tues. Since the abve post, I also heard that Fed's Poole and another "Fed Open-Mouth-Commentor" will be speaking Tuesday - basically confirming "G" move, since you know as well, the usual effect of these mouths on the Market.

Basically, I'm with others that feel a pull-back here, short-term at least, maybe thru all next week (/longer?) - but looking this a coming opportunities to DCA-in! (Right now the longer term market is looking OK, but at same time I'd suggest vigilence for a larger-than-expected drop). Another postee commented to what I'd said - that the "Big-Boys" may also press numbers to move Markets down (to get another rate cut). Sorry for length of this post, but seems were on our own (we even apparently lost Tom's commentary now due to pay-services).
VR

PS If accurate note* Ebb's calls was $ for Monday & $ for Tuesday (courtesy Tom) - will those eat crow?)

 

[Wildboar53]

Ebb may have said $ monday and $ tuesday but as ya'll have seen by now it will end up $ for both days. And from the way the market is right now seems that was not the best prediction :worried: .

As another post said ---"Time will tell !!"

 

[SkyPilot]

Ebb may have said $ monday and $ tuesday but as ya'll have seen by now it will end up $ for both days. And from the way the market is right now seems that was not the best prediction :worried: .

As another post said ---"Time will tell !!"

I think we are supposed to avoid discussing specific IFT's from paid services... :worried:

 

[crhuss]

It sure gets frustrating when you are trying to follow the leaders and make your IFT accordingly, based on the success of the various systems, and the "communication" of those leader's IFTs get garbled in the translation to the message board. That is why we need to keep the site as literary accurate as possible. I guess I'm from the old school, and I certainly am not in favor of any legal jargon, but articulating accurately would sure help. This ain't no dummies chat room.

 

[SkyPilot]

It sure gets frustrating when you are trying to follow the leaders and make your IFT accordingly, based on the success of the various systems, and the "communication" of those leader's IFTs get garbled in the translation to the message board. That is why we need to keep the site as literary accurate as possible. I guess I'm from the old school, and I certainly am not in favor of any legal jargon, but articulating accurately would sure help. This ain't no dummies chat room.

The only way to make IFT's based on the success of various (paid)systems is to subscribe to those systems, pays your money and takes your chances...

 

[hessian]

It sure gets frustrating when you are trying to follow the leaders and make your IFT accordingly, based on the success of the various systems, and the "communication" of those leader's IFTs get garbled in the translation to the message board. That is why we need to keep the site as literary accurate as possible. I guess I'm from the old school, and I certainly am not in favor of any legal jargon, but articulating accurately would sure help. This ain't no dummies chat room.

Check what I just posted in 12%'s Account Talk - feeling same BS

 

[crhuss]

Skypilot, What you say is very true. And even the pay for view services can mess up the IFT moves on occasion. Nothing is a sure thing. I look at all the systems because I feel that there is wisdom both inside and outside the pay for views. My reference was toward ensuring proper and accurate articulation in our communications, not 100% accuracy in our IFTs. The later is a crap shoot no matter how accurate the articulation.

 

[Wildboar53]

My apologees if I overstepped the boundries of paid service disclosure.
I was following the conversation of the previous post that stated the same information that I had edited out of my post.
This same information as far as I can see was a moot point. If that impression on my part is wrong please explain why to me.
Thank you

 

[SkyPilot]

My apologees if I overstepped the boundries of paid service disclosure.
I was following the conversation of the previous post that stated the same information that I had edited out of my post.
This same information as far as I can see was a moot point. If that impression on my part is wrong please explain why to me.
Thank you

Disclosure of any IFT's paid service past or present without the express permission of the owner is likely inappropriate.

We may see in the future that the creators of those systems may publish older records, but until they do, it is a presumption for a subscriber to decide when and if this information is released.

Moot or not, it is not up to individual discretion.

 

[Wildboar53]

Thank for that info and therefore my lips are sealed concerning Ebb's system .

 

[Birchtree]

Nice to see another "Live Free Or Die".

 

[Wildboar53]

On a more technical note --

Is the share price history going to post numbers for today? Be it tonight or sometime Tuesday?