Dr Faustus's Account Talk

[buda]

Craig,

Ebb's return is ONLY 20.09% for the first 9 months of the year. Ebb is trailing the EbbChart simply because he did not personally follow all of the EbbChart recommendations earlier in the year. However, the EbbChart itself leads the pack at 27.39% and at this pace is on track to earn 36% or more by the end of the year. Look at all the rankings from #1-145 and decide which person or system has done the best so far this year. Don't base your results only on the past few weeks, but look at the performance over the entire year.

You are right each system to its own down days and each will have its days in glory.

lets look at Barbaro at the point of the implosion of his leg any nag could of beat him . Nothing against Barbaro, but that day wasn't his day and his life shouldn't be judged by his last race, but of the life leading to the great stage.

I want to reach that stage...and by taking bits and pieces here and there we all can be successfull and carefull enough not to explode something.

buda

buda


buda

 

[DrFaustus]

Well, lets see ... where to go for Tuesday. The EbbChart has pattern 5 on tap for that day. Pattern 5 is another weak indicator ( 17 hits, +0.25, +0.36, +0.32, +0.68, -0.94 ) with no clear direction either way. Pattern 2.5 was a big loser in its first and only time out though ( 1 hit, +0.00, +0.26, -2.31, -2.33, -2.41 )

Ebb says that he is going to the S-fund, probably because it has been the highest compound earner over the 17 times Pattern 5 has come up. The two-day analysis seems to indicate that the F fund is the place to be but of course you can't tell anything with one data point.

So, what to do? The USM futures are indicating a flat opening today and TSPLookup isn't giving me a good feeling on what is going to happen tomorrow either.

Based on all that ... I think I'll go 50G / 50F.

 

[DrFaustus]

Dr. F,
BTW, is there alot of patterns like 2.7 that have only 1 hit, or no historical occurrences, as yet?
VR

Patterns with 0 hits: 2.3, 5.6, 7.7, 8.7 and 4.8
Patterns with 1 hit: 6.2, 8.2, 5.3, 7.3, 8.4, 2.5, 6.5, 7.6, 2.7, 5.7, 1.8 and 3.8

Everything else has 2 or more

Dan

 

[DrFaustus]

I don't understand Ebb's patterns enough to really be sold on his system even though it is doing really well.

I don't know what is going into developing Ebb's patterns either. I just learned over the weekend that he is using lunar cycles as part of his trend analysis. While I thought that was kind of wierd at first, I finally realized that it didn't matter - I don't care if he's using lunar cycles, motorcycles, sunspot cycles or menstrual cycles. All I care about is whether he's able to pick out those days which generate more gains than losses.

But, we have missed some substantial earnings the past few weeks by hiding in the G fund with him. Ebb's return is not as good as several others according to the new tracker system.

You're going to get that kind of thing sometimes when you're using a system. Sustained performance is really all that counts.

Do you know anything about the RevShark's system?

I don't know anything about RevShark. But his track record doesn't give me a warm fuzzy.

Dan

 

[DrFaustus]

I've been reading a lot about Ebb over on TSPStrategy egroup on Yahoo. Anyone know what Sarah's beef is with Ebb? She really has her knives out for him. Did he leave her at the altar in a past life?

 

[ATCJeff]

I've been reading a lot about Ebb over on TSPStrategy egroup on Yahoo. Anyone know what Sarah's beef is with Ebb? She really has her knives out for him. Did he leave her at the altar in a past life?

You mention the name that is not to be spoken.........

 

[DrFaustus]

Arrrgh ... the combo pattern for Tuesday is 7.5, not 2.5 ( thanks, Hessian! ) .... ok, lets see if that modifies things. Pattern 7.5 has the following stats: ( 2 hits; +0.00, -0.27, +2.20, +1.96, +1.94 ) Wow ... a complete reversal from 2.5. This pattern indicates that C is the place to be. Maybe C will pop tomorrow .. what the heck, I'll go for it. I didnt feel strongly about the 50G/50F move I was going to make. This makes me feel better about getting into stocks.

100% C for Tuesday

 

[DrFaustus]

Just read that Citi group is likely to declare a 60% plunge in earnings. Hope this doesn't affect the C fund tomorrow ( but I am sure it will ) arrrrrghhh....

 

[clester]

That came out before the open I think. Bad news is good news now.

 

[BeaverState]

Just read that Citi group is likely to declare a 60% plunge in earnings. Hope this doesn't affect the C fund tomorrow ( but I am sure it will ) arrrrrghhh....

Must be a good time to buy Citi. If you can hold it for two years you should do well.

 

[budnipper1]

I've been reading a lot about Ebb over on TSPStrategy egroup on Yahoo. Anyone know what Sarah's beef is with Ebb? She really has her knives out for him. Did he leave her at the altar in a past life?

comment:>> http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=119681&postcount=41

 

[DrFaustus]

Well, pattern 2.7 called it on Monday ... I only wish I had been smart enough to listen. Now ... where to go for Wednesday ...

According to Ebb, Pattern 8 is on tap for Wednesday. Pattern 8 is a strong positive pattern ( 17 hits; +0.33, +0.18, +5.24, +4.82, +6.41 ), as is the combo pattern 5.8 ( 3 hits; +0.08, +0.26, +3.16, +3.20, +4.31 ). So, if you are working the EbbChart system, the I-fund is the place to be for Wednesday.

While I am on the subject ... I think I will subscribe to the EbbChart system but its going to take me a little while to get my affairs in order ( my life is in flux at the moment ). Does someone want to take on the job of continuing to tally statistics for the double patterns? I'd be willing to pass along my spreadsheet (its a small one) to anyone who wants it.

Dan

 

[autiger83]

What do you mean by Monday (10/1/07) "called it?" We earned zero in G-Fund. I-Fund earned 1.35% that day.

 

[DrFaustus]

What do you mean by Monday (10/1/07) "called it?" We earned zero in G-Fund. I-Fund earned 1.35% that day.

See http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=119101&postcount=134

You'll see that pattern 2.7 had a past history of +1.09% for the S fund ... but since it has only occured once since Jan 17, 2007, I didn't think there was enough data to justify putting money into the S-fund.

If only ...

 

[autiger83]

OK. I understand. You meant you should have listened to your own research of the one-time-occurence of 2.7, rather than following the EbbChart.

 

[DrFaustus]

Well darn ... I just don't know what to do here.

Ebb was nice enough to put another day's spin-chart up -- pattern 1 is on tap for Thursday. Pattern 1 is a strong positive indicator ( 38 hits; +0.85, +2.59, +7.41, +9.51, +7.58 ) and so Ebb is going 100% S for obvious reasons.

We are coming off of Pattern 1, so Thursday's combo pattern is 7.1, which isn't bad either ( 3 hits; +0.00, -0.18, +0.38, +1.04, +0.89 ).

Though the markets are down so far this morning, it looks like they are trying to find traction; C rebounded almost back to 0 yesterday and is trying to rebound from the early losses today. S rebounded into positive territory yesterday and is rebounding off of early losses today.

So what does this tell me? I'm seeing some strength in the markets, I think they might climb tomorrow. But I am not going to put all of my eggs into one basket. Instead, I'm going to try spreading things around some. I'll use the percentages on the 7.1 chart to guide me: 0.38 / (.38+1.04+.89) = .165 (call it .17) 1.04/(.38+1.04+.89) = .45 .89/(.38+1.04+.89) = .385 (call it .38) So that'll be 17% C, 45% S, 38% I for me on Thursday.

 

[crhuss]

Hi Dr. F So...... you are one of my main men (and women) when it comes to figuring out what to do for my IFT each morning. I like the way you analyze the statistics out loud and help us all figure out how and why. What is your plan now that Ebb is pay for view? Can I still rely on you to help guide me through the maze?

 

[DrFaustus]

Well, I am considering signing on to Ebb at some point but for now I guess I'll go back to what I was doing before. Unfortunately for anyone that is following me, that may mean a short suspense on making an IFT as there are occasions when I've barely made it under the wire.

I like volatile markets ... if the market is doing a lot of up/down swings and it opens low one morning, chances are that is going to go up the next. And of course it is easy to make money in a bull market. For us, the bear markets are where we can lose a lot of money.

 

[Birchtree]

Do you smell a bear in the woods, yet?

 

[hessian]

Bears? Birchtree! Where's that coming from? I'm a newbie and wouldn't presume to even pretend to have any amount of technical knowledge like you seem to possess, only that - we like bears, don't we? Bring 'em on. The more bears the merrier, right? Among others, I've been reading your posts too, and say...
- surf's up!
One day, a dull one at that, is just a little rest, an opportunity, to get ready for the big set coming!! I think Dr F was just saying he likes volatility (I agree). It creates opportunity.

BTW, Dr. F, I have been playing stocks as spreads, based on Ebb and you, etc., -rather than individual funds daily - alot like you did today.

Overall - I'm wondering why TSPtalk in general doesn't play this sort of strategy more? For example, I often lags C & S by a day (just a follow-the-leader play) Any thoughts, or worth a separate post/forum topic??