Ebb is moving into the I-fund today (Mon, 09/24/07) because of pattern 2 ( 19 hits; +0.67, +0.64, +5.88, +4.54, +6.77 ) being on tap for Tuesday. But pattern 3.2 is terrible ( 2 hits; +0.00, +0.00, -1.97, -1.93, -1.30 ) and, since I don't have a lot of time today, I'll sit things out in G.
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Dr Faustus's Account Talk
- Thread starter DrFaustus
- Start date
USNAVYRETIRED
Member
Ahoy thar Matey!
I surley enjoy reading your analysis of Ebb's combined patterns and their history.
Good job and please continue when time permits!
I surley enjoy reading your analysis of Ebb's combined patterns and their history.
Good job and please continue when time permits!
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Thanks Navy! I got into the office late yesterday and had an early meeting, so I didn't have a lot of time to do analysis, etc. When that happens, or when I know I'm not going to be near a computer, I typically go to G as I feel its better to hang on to what I've gained as opposed to betting on the market for two days or more in advance.
According to the EbbChart, we have pattern 4 on tap for tomorrow. Pattern 4 is generally good ( 23 hits; +0.25, -0.18, +1.61, +0.22, +6.63 ) but, as Q noted, pattern 2.4 is kind of lukewarm ( 2 hits; +0.00, -0.26, -0.30, -0.64, +0.71 ). But again, there have been only 2 hits on this pattern.
The I-fund looks like it is struggling today and the USMs are fighting to break the surface of the water as well. This might mean that they are going to do well tomorrow, but ... I can't explain it ... I feel something bad is on the horizon. So I'm going to continue to sit on the sidelines in G.
( Geez, I gotta stop watching "Squawk on the Street" in the AM .... I'm starting to sound like a 'real' market analyst )
According to the EbbChart, we have pattern 4 on tap for tomorrow. Pattern 4 is generally good ( 23 hits; +0.25, -0.18, +1.61, +0.22, +6.63 ) but, as Q noted, pattern 2.4 is kind of lukewarm ( 2 hits; +0.00, -0.26, -0.30, -0.64, +0.71 ). But again, there have been only 2 hits on this pattern.
The I-fund looks like it is struggling today and the USMs are fighting to break the surface of the water as well. This might mean that they are going to do well tomorrow, but ... I can't explain it ... I feel something bad is on the horizon. So I'm going to continue to sit on the sidelines in G.
( Geez, I gotta stop watching "Squawk on the Street" in the AM .... I'm starting to sound like a 'real' market analyst )
Show-me
Well-known member
lol ... thanks, Show-me!
The EbbChart has pattern 7 on tap for Thursday. Its compounded performance is quite poor ( 14 hits; +0.17, -0.71, -1.58, -1.78, -3.21 ) but ... and this is interesting ... this is mainly due to the contributions of two two-day patterns: 1.7 ( 5 hits; +0.08, -0.53, -3.97, -4.03, -4.65 ) and 6.7 ( 2 hits; +0.08, -0.53, -2.10, -2.45, -1.98 ).
The results for pattern 4.7 are somewhat different ( 3 hits; +0.00, 0.36, +1.79, +2.49, +0.87 ), this leads me to thinking that going into the S fund might be the way to go tomorrow (thursday, 9/27/07).
My bad vibes from yesterday don't seem to be panning out as the USMs are opening into positive territory. So ... I'm going into the S-fund for tomorrow.
The EbbChart has pattern 7 on tap for Thursday. Its compounded performance is quite poor ( 14 hits; +0.17, -0.71, -1.58, -1.78, -3.21 ) but ... and this is interesting ... this is mainly due to the contributions of two two-day patterns: 1.7 ( 5 hits; +0.08, -0.53, -3.97, -4.03, -4.65 ) and 6.7 ( 2 hits; +0.08, -0.53, -2.10, -2.45, -1.98 ).
The results for pattern 4.7 are somewhat different ( 3 hits; +0.00, 0.36, +1.79, +2.49, +0.87 ), this leads me to thinking that going into the S fund might be the way to go tomorrow (thursday, 9/27/07).
My bad vibes from yesterday don't seem to be panning out as the USMs are opening into positive territory. So ... I'm going into the S-fund for tomorrow.
On EbbnFlow's system, what do you mean when you say, "Pattern 3.2" and "Pattern 4.7?" I understand the number before the decimal. But I'm not following the number after the decimal.
I've examining two day patterns on the EbbChart. When I say Pattern 3.2, that means pattern 3 followed by pattern 2. For example, for thursday, the EbbChart is indicating pattern 7. For Wednesday, the EbbChart indicated pattern 4. Thus ... 4.7.
While I'm on the subject, when I list performance data, it is always in the form of ( # occurences, G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund ). I've lapsed into shorthand on the last few posts because it was getting redundant to type (for the G, F, C, S and I funds respectively ).
Dan
whitemingo
Member
It is a combination of two patterns. 4.7 would be pattern 4 today going to pattern 7 tomorrow. Go back on the Ebbchart historically and find this combination of two patterns and look at the at outcome when this combination happened.
Hey Dr. F, Ebb's thread keeps talking about pay-for-view and how much his viewers will pay, and when he is going to start. I guess that's all well and good cause he has put a lot of time into it and his charts are very successful. I like where you are at with including more parameters into the equation. I also like 'charmed' idea of including more than just the last years data in the equation. It's too bad that you guys can't get together and come up with the very best of products. That would help all of us in TSP maximize our retirement goals. I know that you have tried, and I'll give you an ada-boy for that. But I will still watch where you go before placing my IFT. Thanks for your efforts also.
Good luck!! (luck is where preparation meets opportunity!!!)
Good luck!! (luck is where preparation meets opportunity!!!)
Dang Dr. F, you did it again. I was stuck with a a minimal .08%, while you were in the thick for .73%. But, we both missed out on the +1.38 I fund. Along with most of the TSPTalk players. I've been out of town, without the Web, and couldn't keep up with the threads. Oh well. I will try to pay more attention. My retirement welfare depends on it.
hessian
Member
Dear Dr. F,
I think I caught on, thanks! You're saying 7.2 is in store for Friday because Thursday was pattern 7 (In previous post, I got confused since Monday happens to be pattern 7 also.
OK, so now that I'm clear (I think). What would then the prognostication be for Monday? - if I got it correctly, then Monday being a 2.7? - what is the result/meaning in terms of that day's play for being in the market (staying in stocks for Monday)?
VR,
(PS Nice system - it helps with double-checks & balance)
I think I caught on, thanks! You're saying 7.2 is in store for Friday because Thursday was pattern 7 (In previous post, I got confused since Monday happens to be pattern 7 also.
OK, so now that I'm clear (I think). What would then the prognostication be for Monday? - if I got it correctly, then Monday being a 2.7? - what is the result/meaning in terms of that day's play for being in the market (staying in stocks for Monday)?
VR,
(PS Nice system - it helps with double-checks & balance)
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well, lessee ... pattern 7 is on tap for Monday. its overall performance so far is ( 15 hits; +0.25, -0.45, -1.18, -1.06, -1.88 ). It is a weak pattern, one that is trending slightly downward. We had pattern 2 on Friday, making Monday's pattern 2.7. Its overall performance is ( 1 hit; 0.00, -0.09, +0.96, +1.09, +1.00 ). That means that this double pattern has only occured once since Jan 17 and is therefore not a good foundation on which to make a decision.
But, since I am currently in the I fund, a decision must be made. I think I am going to run back to G.
But, since I am currently in the I fund, a decision must be made. I think I am going to run back to G.
Contemplating ... that's a good word for it. Yes, I am contemplating ... but am leaning towards no at this time (lots of reasons - too many to list right now) But I might feel differently on Monday.
This isn't to say that I haven't made any money with Ebb or that I don't think his system is worthwhile. I would have liked to work the two-day patterns a bit more - I really think there is something to those if I can get enough data.
This isn't to say that I haven't made any money with Ebb or that I don't think his system is worthwhile. I would have liked to work the two-day patterns a bit more - I really think there is something to those if I can get enough data.
Dr. F, I am kinda in the same quandry!! I don't understand Ebb's patterns enough to really be sold on his system even though it is doing really well. But, we have missed some substantial earnings the past few weeks by hiding in the G fund with him. Ebb's return is not as good as several others according to the new tracker system. I wish he would collaborate with you to improve his record. I am wondering if there is a more profitable system out there. Do you know anything about the RevShark's system? The sentiment survey is out performing ebb right now, according to the new tracker information. What do you think?
Craig
Craig
hessian
Member
Dr. F,
Thanks for the reply yesterday. Basically, I liked the doublechecks that your double/decimal provided to EbbChart's single calls. Personally, I don't think Ebb is ready for prime-time (pay-service), by itself. I add my vote in hoping for anything that can extend your efforts to enhance his. I agree I'd like to see it worked out TOGETHER - and will not be paying for that service alone. I hope this will not mean the the end of your added balance.
BTW, is there alot of patterns like 2.7 that have only 1 hit, or no historical occurrences, as yet?
Thanks Again!
VR
Thanks for the reply yesterday. Basically, I liked the doublechecks that your double/decimal provided to EbbChart's single calls. Personally, I don't think Ebb is ready for prime-time (pay-service), by itself. I add my vote in hoping for anything that can extend your efforts to enhance his. I agree I'd like to see it worked out TOGETHER - and will not be paying for that service alone. I hope this will not mean the the end of your added balance.
BTW, is there alot of patterns like 2.7 that have only 1 hit, or no historical occurrences, as yet?
Thanks Again!
VR
