Direction of F Fund ?

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The F fund is a nice play if you believe the Iranian situation will worsen (as I believe it will). I may add more to my bond position after the G fund pays out the next penny and continue to watch the equities side of things closely for a pullback.
 
More bond news, from Bloomberg..... ``There's no sign of the economy slowing down and Fed officials should continue to be hawkish,'' said Yasutoshi Nagai, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. in Tokyo. ``It's a misconception that long-term yields will fall further.''

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 5 percent by the end of 2006, Nagai said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
 
Fund directions

I think its important to step back and get an overall view whats happening in the markets....without confusion.

Some of you know I have been developing some new analysis so that this can be done. Here is the sum of the analysis.

The indication of the CSI funds will be a mixed daily return for a while with a negative bias and they have been for a week or so (since around Jan 11). The F fund will be progressing but currently is taken a break.....

Comment:
Using the current economics that we have everyday I wouldn't put any other bias on the above indication of the CSI funds. It seems it will be controlled by the "oil wrench" and interest rates, and a poor govt report of inflation.

Considering the F fund, it will mainly be biased with the rate increases, inversion curves and the economics.....


Things probably won't change much over the next couple of weeks, and the "oil wrench" will not go away....expect more manipulation.
 
The higher oil climbs, the more inflation we will see. I want to be in F a few days before the inflation reports come out. But I is the place to be with a falling dollar. Will the dollar trade at 105Y after the hikes are over with? Time will tell.
 
This might be a stupid question but here goes. It looks like the ten year note is down about .25 but the yield is also down from 4.7 to 4.5. How does that work?

Dave
<><
 
Large vol reported

Yesterday, I saw a large change in vol in the AGG at or about 2:00pm, it went from 90000 to 142,000 in 20 minutes.... better than a 50% increase from the entire mornings volume.... and its not a daily trend either.........

I'm not really sure why it happened, but given it is low I'd bet it was a position play.....

If you take a look back at the AGG in Jun 04 thru Sept 04, I believe you will see a similar trading pattern showing up......back then, the F fund jumped 4% or there abouts in a matter of a couple of months.....while the other funds had problems gaining much at all...

I'm not really sure if it will happen here due mainly to diffferent economics..... but.....I wouldn't discount it...
 
I think you are missing the point of my question, how can both the price and the yield move in the same direction?

Dave
<><
 
Again vol change

this morning.....at or about 10:24 to 10:53, vol jumped double from mornings entire volume, from 27000 to 64000 right at this mornings low....., again I speculate a position move....today and yesterday were the first two days I have ever noticed such large changes in vol occuring ....rather impulsive to me
 
10 yr is sitting at 4.52% at the moment.
2 yr is sitting at 4.49% at the moment.
5 yr is sitting at 4.43% at the moment.

USD falling and falling hard in the deep month contracts.

Greenspan is handing Berknake a stick of lite dynamite.

He hoofed and poofed to get the long side to move up for over 2 years and failed.

Good luck trying to sell the 150B of debt left to be sold in this quarter. :eek:
 
I believe

we're to get a poor performance out of the F fund .....for a period....I firmly believe that the inflation is not being properly reported therefore interest rates will be going up until the consumer runs out of money....

Consumer spending is going up not from just buying more products, but because everything is costing more.....in effect due to inflationary pressure....(have you bought a 2x4 lately???)

I think I would apply a more sudden adjustment to the rate increases to quickly head off inflationary practices by corps and individual contractors....this slight increase that Greenspud has initiated isn't sudden enough to properly keep inflation in check.....
 
"F" fund up .38% at 11:15 EST. :eek: Not a good sign for indices!!:eek: :eek: Down Boy, Down Boy, get outa here!
 
F fund up even more so far....

Might get .05 today? Maybe this week we'll have seen the low and high for its near term trading range...
 
It's about time the "F" fund paid SOMETHING!! Every time I DONATE to the "F" it's just that a DONATION.:mad:
 
I've been waiting for this dog of a fund to pay off for over a month now (should've sold as soon as it cleared $10.70 a few weeks ago). Patience... :p
 
That's why they named it the "F" fund, kinda like the "F" Chord when playing guitar, hard to do but worth it when you need it!! :rolleyes:
 
Today's WSJ has article titled "Forecast for Overseas Rates Pushes U.S. Yields Upwards" - suggesting as European Central Bank just raised rates (and Bank of Japan expected to start same soon), U.S. rates will have to track upwards to keep current levels of foreign holding of U.S. debt.

If correct, F fund won't like it. U.S. housing won't like it either.
 
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