Direction of F Fund ?

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cowboy wrote:
If you were in on the stocks then how can you say you lost money all u lost was paper, tomorrow you could lose more or gain more. The next time your in it you gain twocents what are you going to call it? A gain right! I make bad moves all the time and so does everyone else, there is no right and wrong way to play. Did you read my posts yesterday I lost big gains because of a faulty transfer whats past is past look to the future. Can you say I should have yesterdays C gain because I should of been in it.
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Cowboy,

Of course not. If your order didn't go through, you've swung and missed. It's happened to me too.

The reason I can say I've recently gotten ripped in the F is that I made a 1 day move last Friday into stocks (good move), but was back in the F Monday for a 4 cent drop (bad move). A 4 cent drop in the F fund is a bigger hit than a 4 cent drop in the I Fund.

I only count gains and lossesafter I make an interfund transfer. I was up .06 for the year heading into Monday. The 4 cent drop makes me down about .35. Ouch. Went 100 I for COB Wed.

If this is a temporary move, I'll head to the G Friday since there was a 4 day turnaround this week. I'll probably avoid the F, but you never know.

Good luck.

RC
 
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Mr Bubbles is not working. 10 year is going the wrong way. If he is not careful we will have a yield inversion. That would WRECK the markets. Last time we had a yield inversion was March 2000. History does repeat itself. F Fund MAY have a good day today. The guy wants the long rates to move up and he just can not get the job done. He is a national treasury...
 
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rajun cajun wrote:


cowboy wrote:
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If you were in on the stocks then how can you say you lost money all u lost was paper, tomorrow you could lose more or gain more. The next time your in it you gain twocents what are you going to call it? A gain right! I make bad moves all the time and so does everyone else, there is no right and wrong way to play. Did you read my posts yesterday I lost big gains because of a faulty transfer whats past is past look to the future. Can you say I should have yesterdays C gain because I should of been in it.
Click to expand...
Cowboy,

Of course not. If your order didn't go through, you've swung and missed. It's happened to me too.

The reason I can say I've recently gotten ripped in the F is that I made a 1 day move last Friday into stocks (good move), but was back in the F Monday for a 4 cent drop (bad move). A 4 cent drop in the F fund is a bigger hit than a 4 cent drop in the I Fund.

I only count gains and lossesafter I make an interfund transfer. I was up .06 for the year heading into Monday. The 4 cent drop makes me down about .35. Ouch. Went 100 I for COB Wed.

If this is a temporary move, I'll head to the G Friday since there was a 4 day turnaround this week. I'll probably avoid the F, but you never know.

Good luck.

RC
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I don't know but 4 cents is four cents regardless. Lets see what your telling me. Suppose you were in I and you lost 4 cents yesterday and gain it back today and then some you didn't have a loss. But if you were in F and it losses 4 cents and you go back to I and it gains some it cost you more! What if I fund went down 6 cents why you were in F did you lose 2 or gain 2? Forget about what could have been, concentrate on tomorrow! Too often were licking wounds and not concentrating on the next move. If it goes against you and you get lemons make lemonade!
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cowboy wrote:
rajun cajun wrote:
Cowboy,

I said I've been retreating to the F fund for safety the last 2 weeks. I was fully in stocks last Friday for the runup. I've just been bailing to the F instead of the G, and it hasn't worked well at all.

RC
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Thats the risk of playing the game! I haven't done too well in it but when it starts to deliver maybe it will be the right move. I believe about time we get out of it, it will start delivering the goods. If you were in on the stocks then how can you say you lost money all u lost was paper, tomorrow you could lose more or gain more. The next time your in it you gain twocents what are you going to call it? A gain right! I make bad moves all the time and so does everyone else, there is no right and wrong way to play. Did you read my posts yesterday I lost big gains because of a faulty transfer whats past is past look to the future. Can you say I should have yesterdays C gain because I should of been in it.
Click to expand...


I believe about time we get out of it, it will start delivering the goods.I sense some nevousness now maybe F will make a move while stocks head down. I said maybe!

I made both of these quotes earlier the F fund is going to make a move. I am thinking that S & C are going to range trade and Ifundwill keep going up. If I am wrong, it is a very good thing for everyone as we will break ressitance in the US markets. Only today or tomorrow will tell the story.
 
imported post

cowboy wrote:
cowboy wrote:
rajun cajun wrote:
Cowboy,

I said I've been retreating to the F fund for safety the last 2 weeks. I was fully in stocks last Friday for the runup. I've just been bailing to the F instead of the G, and it hasn't worked well at all.

RC
Click to expand...


Thats the risk of playing the game! I haven't done too well in it but when it starts to deliver maybe it will be the right move. I believe about time we get out of it, it will start delivering the goods. If you were in on the stocks then how can you say you lost money all u lost was paper, tomorrow you could lose more or gain more. The next time your in it you gain twocents what are you going to call it? A gain right! I make bad moves all the time and so does everyone else, there is no right and wrong way to play. Did you read my posts yesterday I lost big gains because of a faulty transfer whats past is past look to the future. Can you say I should have yesterdays C gain because I should of been in it.
Click to expand...


I believe about time we get out of it, it will start delivering the goods.I sense some nevousness now maybe F will make a move while stocks head down. I said maybe!

I made both of these quotes earlier the F fund is going to make a move. I am thinking that S & C are going to range trade and Ifundwill keep going up. If I am wrong, it is a very good thing for everyone as we will break ressitance in the US markets. Only today or tomorrow will tell the story.
Click to expand...


Now we have told the story. But what did it tell us? Here is my thoughts and I have been wrong just as many times as right. The C seems to have broken resistance and there is a lot of comments that the C is leading the S, so why aren't they getting into S. Why not jump into S like Namor did do.

The market is telling me right now that C broke resistance and S is still range bound. I believe S is the stronger market than the C, so my thought is the C may have given a false signal. I fund could be up or higher monday but do you want to chance that. I didn't play F fund cause it is up along with stocks and G may pay that .01 Monday everyone loves so much. If not it will pay it Tuesday. Will I be there. Don't know, S may go up and I may jump on Namor's train. Have a good weekend everyone.
 
imported post

vectorman wrote:
Good volume noticed in the AGG chart for friday. F fund appears to have bottomed, now starting an up ward climb. Now maybe a better time to have a little in the F fund if you don't mine the risk.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG
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If you look at the charts for AGG long enough (and the W%R, RSI, Bollinger Bands, etc.), it looks like the F fund might be looking at a up to 2% possible increase in the next week or so. Especially look at the Bollinger Bands -- right now the price line is below the lower band. Everytime that has happened in the last few months, AGG's price has gone up 1-2% within 5 days. The problem is that it drops from that point pretty rapidly so it is hard to get out in time--darn the TSP interfund transfer lag.

Realize that this analysis is from a technical viewpoint and who knows how the market psychology will react to all the reports coming this week.
 
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Looks to me the F fund is high at the moment and it could be several weeks before it would be time to jump in......

Any body else have anything on this....???

:^
 
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The Technician wrote:
Looks to me the F fund is high at the moment and it could be several weeks before it would be time to jump in......
Any body else have anything on this....???
:^
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Some time ago I read that waiting until the F went <99 would be the wisest thing. Then it did, and I didn't get in because I got into a debate w/myself as to why on earth anyone would get into F anyway. Thanx to all of you, (remember, Tech?) my mind was cleared - too late , then to get in!! ..am watching & waiting - again.....
mouseandswisspluto.jpg
 
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Grandma, lets see if this may help.....I looked further into the F fund since the last post and it looks like we might have a 4-6 day window to get in....seems to be dropping this morning and I'd give it a couple more days....but it has outperformed the G fund since I mentioned that the last time.....it would be nice if we could just stay with the G and get the penny till Tuesday but I don't think we may have that option.....the F will return a larger percentage anyway.....

:dude:
 
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Here's an interesting observation for you Grandma.....looking back at the historical data on the Funds at the TSP gov site and in 2002 the F fund return a really impressive return...but in Jan of 2003 it immediately started to greatly reduce its return.....start of year switch maybe.....anditdid the same form 1999-2000...a Jan start of year switch....from a non return to a good return.....

look at what I have been speculating on the market in general...start of the year downturn.....a switch......;)

This invites a strong possibility that at the start of the year the F fund should start bringing on some really good returns....;) an inverse to the market return here...

I think I would be in the F fund by start of year.....which also coincides my recent analysis of a few more days....:shock:
:dude:
 
imported post

F fund has made a move recently since early Decand is preparing today and tomorrow to make a jump...when the Ffund does this, it has a tendency to jump sharply with a 1.5 - 2%+ gain over a short period right after..;)

Looking for the jump to start on the 3rd.....in the mean time, the other funds should be suffering....:shock:

:dude:
 
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Well we missed out on the G fund adjustment for the end of year....I guess next year I'll anticipate this and so should everyone else....

I see the F fund made the drop from its high the other day and now I fully expect that the fund will start making some returns like it did right after 1999....unfortunately I believe the other funds are toast.....except for the G of course.....

A penny saved is a penny earned....how true how true...

:dude:
 
F fund Vol

I noticed the F fund vol has been accelerating in Dec....set an all time high vol on 28 Dec....maybe this is a tell tale sign of things coming...:D
 
Dim light.....

Dave M said:
I am smiling, Tech. Suddenly I see you in a different light. D
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Must be a dim light.....seems the fund started good today and petered out....but I'm still expecting that increase soon....
 
This is a record week for debt being sold. It could be a rocking week for the F fund.
 
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