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Direction of F Fund ?
- Thread starter GTO1970
- Start date
vectorman
Active member
SkyPilot said:
I agree, as much as I dislike the F fund, even today the bonds yields are down and prices are up, but the AGG is showing red ( as of 11 est ) that doesn't make sense. The AGG seems to be bouncing off some support at 98.06 ( looking back 3 months), and even though the AGG is showing red today; the 2 , 5, 10, and 30 year bond yields are all down and the prices are up. http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter/
The F fund may continue to trend down, but in the short term I look for it to climb back up to at least 99.00, using the AGG chart. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG
Sure it's not alot of money, but for those in the G fund, alittle in the F fund at this time may not be as risky while their waiting for the next penny, next monday. But once again the F is in a down trend ( only an up trend is your friend ), and this may only be a small bounce if the earning reports don't mess everything up.
Last edited:
vectorman
Active member
" Technical Gauge
The notes climbed as a technical indicator traders use to predict price changes indicated they were poised to rally.
The 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of momentum, for 10-year securities fell as low as 27.5 on April 7. A level below 30 or above 70 suggests the price may change direction.
``The bond market got very oversold,'' said Richard Gilhooly, senior bond strategist in New York at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., one of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade directly with the Fed. ``To expect a technical bounce is reasonable.''
Treasury yields also fell as gasoline prices reached a six- month high, a trend with the potential to slow consumer spending on other items.
Each time the average retail price of gasoline has reached a new high in the past two years, 10-year yields have declined. In 2004, 10-year yields peaked at 4.90 percent in June and then rallied to 4 percent by October after gasoline climbed to $2.10 a gallon in late May. The average retail price of gasoline was $2.73 as of April 10, the highest since October, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
The notes climbed as a technical indicator traders use to predict price changes indicated they were poised to rally.
The 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of momentum, for 10-year securities fell as low as 27.5 on April 7. A level below 30 or above 70 suggests the price may change direction.
``The bond market got very oversold,'' said Richard Gilhooly, senior bond strategist in New York at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., one of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade directly with the Fed. ``To expect a technical bounce is reasonable.''
Treasury yields also fell as gasoline prices reached a six- month high, a trend with the potential to slow consumer spending on other items.
Each time the average retail price of gasoline has reached a new high in the past two years, 10-year yields have declined. In 2004, 10-year yields peaked at 4.90 percent in June and then rallied to 4 percent by October after gasoline climbed to $2.10 a gallon in late May. The average retail price of gasoline was $2.73 as of April 10, the highest since October, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
The_Technician
Active member
I noticed today that there was a doubling of volume on the AGG in 20 or 25 minutes around noon today......
:blink: :worried: :embarrest:
:blink: :worried: :embarrest:
The_Technician
Active member
Further review of the F fund indicates that the accumulation of the AGG has increased by over 10% in the positive direction....a definite change of direction since Feb of this year.....
could be a future for the F yet.....
could be a future for the F yet.....
vectorman
Active member
Robo suppilied this link in another post. Pretty interesting
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...281D-4DA4-9ED2-4A9535A5C9E4}&link=&keyword=go
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...281D-4DA4-9ED2-4A9535A5C9E4}&link=&keyword=go
The_Technician
Active member
Received another large vol on the AGG this morning.....at least 3 times the morning vol in 30 minutes.....approx at 98.05 on the AGG....could be a buy point......
Two days in a row that this large vol trading has occured.....I ponder if they are getting ready for a market drop overall and are in acquisition mode for bonds and such....
Two days in a row that this large vol trading has occured.....I ponder if they are getting ready for a market drop overall and are in acquisition mode for bonds and such....
The_Technician
Active member
vectorman
Active member
Treasuries May Rise Before Report Showing Oil Costs Are Denting Confidence
April 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries may advance for a third day before a report today that is forecast to show consumer confidence declined this month amid higher gasoline prices and interest rates.
Ten-year notes are poised for the longest run of gains since February on concern rising energy costs will curb spending and companies' profit in the U.S., the world's largest oil importer. Demand for debt may reduce borrowing costs for the government as it sells $47 billion of notes this week.
``Oil prices above $70 will hurt consumer confidence,'' said Lee Boon Keng, a market strategist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, Southeast Asia's biggest lender. ``The slowdown will happen in the second half. Our trajectory is for lower yields.''
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.98 percent at 9:53 a.m. in Singapore, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP.
The price of the 4 1/2 percent note due in February 2016 rose 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 96 11/32. The 10-year yield may fall to 4.7 percent by the end of the year, Lee said.
The Conference Board's index probably fell to 106.2 from 107.2 in March, according to the median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The March figure was the highest since May 2002.
Crude oil futures reached a record $75.35 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contracts traded at $73.12 today, 20 percent higher than at the start of the year.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Shamim Adam in Singapore sadam2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 24, 2006 21:55 EDT
April 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries may advance for a third day before a report today that is forecast to show consumer confidence declined this month amid higher gasoline prices and interest rates.
Ten-year notes are poised for the longest run of gains since February on concern rising energy costs will curb spending and companies' profit in the U.S., the world's largest oil importer. Demand for debt may reduce borrowing costs for the government as it sells $47 billion of notes this week.
``Oil prices above $70 will hurt consumer confidence,'' said Lee Boon Keng, a market strategist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, Southeast Asia's biggest lender. ``The slowdown will happen in the second half. Our trajectory is for lower yields.''
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.98 percent at 9:53 a.m. in Singapore, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP.
The price of the 4 1/2 percent note due in February 2016 rose 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 96 11/32. The 10-year yield may fall to 4.7 percent by the end of the year, Lee said.
The Conference Board's index probably fell to 106.2 from 107.2 in March, according to the median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The March figure was the highest since May 2002.
Crude oil futures reached a record $75.35 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contracts traded at $73.12 today, 20 percent higher than at the start of the year.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Shamim Adam in Singapore sadam2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 24, 2006 21:55 EDT
The_Technician
Active member
F Fund made it across a mid term average, the trend is up when this happens when the fund itself has been in this low of a trough....considering that the fuelies will dampen the economy, I expect interest rate increases to cease therefore "fueling" the F fund....expecting some major moves upward for a while...... so get your transfer button ready towards the F fund!!!
Hey Birchy, maybe we can catch the other funds for short bursts at the right time in between things.....
Hey Birchy, maybe we can catch the other funds for short bursts at the right time in between things.....
We have talked a lot on this board about "fair valuation" with respect to the I-fund. Is there something similar going on with the F fund?? Yesterday AGG was up 0.377% but F fund was up 0.19%, almost exactly half of the index gain. The arguments used in the I Fund case about currency moves after market close don't seem to apply. Anybody got an idea of what is going on??
sugarandspice
Well-known member
I noticied the same thing at the same time but I have also noticied it happening in the other direction. Today was down hard but the 10 yr was up.
What will happen?
What will happen?
ayla
Member
from: http://tinyurl.com/ofrwg ( on today.reuters.com)
"Financial markets widely expect the Fed to raise rates yet again at its upcoming policy meeting on May 10, but are closely divided on whether another increase will follow at the subsequent meeting in late June. They will be eyeing Bernanke's testimony closely for clues on the Fed's intentions."
Given that this article is correct (maybe a big "if"):
My question: if everyone knows there will be an interest rate increase again in May (even if there is an expected decrease in June), doesn't that mean the F Fund will take a hit with the announcement by Bernanke tomorrow?
"Financial markets widely expect the Fed to raise rates yet again at its upcoming policy meeting on May 10, but are closely divided on whether another increase will follow at the subsequent meeting in late June. They will be eyeing Bernanke's testimony closely for clues on the Fed's intentions."
Given that this article is correct (maybe a big "if"):
My question: if everyone knows there will be an interest rate increase again in May (even if there is an expected decrease in June), doesn't that mean the F Fund will take a hit with the announcement by Bernanke tomorrow?
The_Technician
Active member
We should be experiencing another down draft for a short period due to the Feds......whether or not it drops twice is to be determined....but overall, the F could start on it trek upwards soon....so we should expect temporary dissatisfaction with a longer term relief.....
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