Corepuncher's Account Talk

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I know I'm missing something, but does your spreadsheet deal with the effect of paying the loan back with after tax dollars?
 
Warrenlm said:
I know I'm missing something, but does your spreadsheet deal with the effect of paying the loan back with after tax dollars?
Click to expand...

The way I see it, the money you are paying back to TSP is coming from the same pot you are paying your credit card or car loan with...so since both loans are paid with after tax dollars, taxes should not matter in that way.
 
I find it very interesting that we've had a marked increase in volume the last 2 trading days...yet...have only gone sideways on a closing price basis. This may mean there is a sort of "equlibrium" at this 850 level. Indeed...850 has been tech support for quite some time.

Remember the "bolllinger band method" i have been spouting over the past several months. It has worked every time since July 2007.

I knowingly took a chance by buying 50% C the other day at 843...being that it was the low bol penetration. Playing only for a bounce...possibly approaching 880 or the 20 day SMA. I think we will fall short of that goal...so any upside into the 860s or higher, I will sell for a small profit. Then, pounce on a big down day in early February when the jobs report comes in smoking death.
 
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I am nervous. Bond yields are rocketing up...that won't help interest rates. I locked at 4.75 and now they are already 5.125. Bank of America is at 5.94 a share as I type. Could you have imagined that just a few months ago.

Trying to decide whether to cut my losses and run. Currently in 50%...so a 3% down day would mean -1.50% for me. Actually less since I now have a tsp loan outstanding.

I might be slightly patient and see if we can get back to 850. If we do really tank it...I'll just throw in the other 50%. My objective for the other 50% is < 741.
 
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Just got back from Disney World. Had a great time, but was stranded at DFW for 2 days. That royally sucked...no luggage either. Man my socks stunk. Was supposed to fly back to OKC Monday night...ended up Wednesday afternoon.

How long will this "bad bank" idea rally last? I"m inclined to think it will last longer than it should. Being only 50% invested at this time, I think I will let it ride. Preliminary sell target is 915, but hell, we could see 950 before we bounce back down. IRX short term T bill yield is the highest it's been since November 13th on a closing basis. This means some short term money is coming out of those bonds and may go into the market. Wednesdays rally was impressive to me as we went through the 850 support/resistence level AND closed 20 and 50 day SMA. Two tech levels sliced and diced in one day.

The real gotcha moment will be when bond yields rocket up...that will be oh so much fun for all. Bring your popcorn and peanuts. When will it happen?
 
Here is my problem with the whole thing, they are rallying because they know they are getting the free money. Tax payer will buy (cough cough) give away good freshly printed money for worthless assets at full price.

I got a deal for you tax payers, I bought some stock at $1000 a share and it is now worth $5 a share and I need a bailout. The company is broke and they product I make is plentiful, so there are no sales and won't be for a very long time.

Send money to..............
 
Treasuries are selling off hard. Don't know if this is a trend or just a "fad" as the new "thing" seems to be short treasuries.

The IX yield has been steadily rising...

big.chart


So, it seems that some short term money may be getting ready to "pounce" on the market.

A bad thing though, is that mortgage rates are skyrocketing. I got 4.75 0/0 a few weeks ago...now, rates are > 5.50% !!! Boy am I glad I jumped on that. New home inventories rising, at a new high of 12.9 months. Given rising rates, this will just compound the issue, and cause more write offs. IF that government takes those bad assets though, banks may not feel it as much pain as normal but that just means the U.S. budget is going further down into the dumps. Falling dollar may ensue.

Sorta wish I sold the other day but maybe we can get 900.
 
Today's investor sentiment seems to be on the UPSIDE...

So I'm thinking...humm...what should I do??? If I go in now and then have to bail soon - I'm OUT the whole month.

Over Seas Markets tell me 'this is just the calm before the storm'

...so I'll try to be increasingly patient and not go in on the first substantial drop..but hopefully wait for an even better one...


It's been many years since I went to Disney World..glad you enjoyed it.
 
Corepuncher said:
IE 8 is out...it seems a bit better to me. I like the "button bar" it has now...like firefox.
http://www.microsoft.com/windows/Internet-explorer/beta/default.aspx
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Thanks for the heads up CP. Keep us posted about your experience using this "beta" version of IE 8. I don't like being Microsoft's guinea pig. I'm not knocking the products they put out. Except for Vista, the most recent one's have been good, but their track record is bad for releasing stuff before all the bugs are worked out. :)

View attachment 5618

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Corepuncher said:
Actually, I uninstalled the dang thing. It was messing up my GMAIL (images would not show up). Buggy.
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Thanks again CP. I was afraid of that...the first thing I noticed was that they bragged about it having better "privacy" protection and being "more secure". That means they tampered with the previous version's security settings. Hopefully, the bugs will be addressed soon and then it might be "new and improved". :suspicious: It usually goes back to that old cliché, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". :D

After you posted earlier, I hit the Windows update site and found a new 'high-priority' update was ready to be installed. What gripes me is the size of the download...248 MB's! That's a lot of crap for a routine update. Hope it's worth it.:notrust:

View attachment 5621

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I am somewhat encouraged by the rise in short term treasury yields. The IRX is shooting up...

big.chart



This is one of the reasons I have chosen to stay 50% invested at this time. Preliminary buy target 750...sell 900.

And as luck would have it, I got my old stuff back and my laptop data was all on there...thus, the STARS system is intact and it took a long time but I got it up to speed:

stars_090202.JPG
 
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turbo23dog said:
Sorry Corepuncher, but what's this say'n?

What I think I see is mostly down, then flat.
Click to expand...

There aren't too many matches, so like the matches from 2/3 show very large negative numbers...but yeah all in all, they are saying down.

I don't know about you guys, but every time the government has voted on anything, the market has headed south. If we happen to have an anticipatory rally Friday, I might sell out. Also, it's pretty obvious the upside potential is limited at this point. Looking at technicals, we are making ever so slightly higher-lows now..(804, 806, 813, 820...)similar to what we did back in mid/late December 08. That resulted in a small rally that had to be sold quick. We'll be lucky to see 900 and if you do, sell it. Also, the triangle formation "tip" is around 860. Breaks to the downside. OH yeah, remember too that the autos are toast.
 
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