Corepuncher's Account Talk

[ContrarianJeff]

I don't know about you guys, but every time the government has voted on anything, the market has headed south. If we happen to have an anticipatory rally Friday, I might sell out. Also, it's pretty obvious the upside potential is limited at this point.

You're right. It's been very easy to make a lot of money shorting this market anytime the government has taken action. But I wonder at what point that trade becomes too easy. The market loves frustrating the most amount of people possible. Right now, I see a lot people betting on another leg down, and hardly anyone expecting a meaningful rise. Bears have made a killing by shorting government intervention--easy money. But at some point, this strategy is going to fail big-time. The question, of course, is when? I have no idea.

 

[Corepuncher]

Strong words from our friend Karl...



President Bush Is Still In Office

From RTT:

"(RTTNews) - President Barack Obama warned Thursday that the nation is facing a recession so deep that, without action, it could turn into one that "we may not be able to reverse." The threat of an irreversible recession that could "linger for years" is very real, Obama said, urging Congress to pass his economic recovery act."
​

"Do what I demand or the entire nation is irretrievably screwed."
How long will it be before you threaten Congress with Martial Law - you know, tanks, rifles, shooting civilians?
I thought that sort of crap left office on January 20th with Paulson and Bush.
Where's my CHANGE Barack?
Your credibility with the American People is GONE; the non-partisan CBO says your "stimulus" is nothing more than a pork-filled sop to Pelosi and Reid and will actually DAMAGE GDP; your claims otherwise are lies.
Change your last name to "Bush-Hoover-Nixon"; that's not what America voted for (myself included) but it sure as hell is what we got.
Short the market at will and head to the store for another rifle to protect your family - we'll be lucky if a Treasury market implosion, tax revolt or worse doesn't take place before our "President of Change" has the opportunity to stand for a second term. In fact if this sort of horsecrap keeps up out of DC I give the markets about two weeks before critical support levels are lost and we have an all-on crash.
Your Presidency is

and it only took you two weeks to do it.
That has to be a record; how long before you do this Barack?

 

[Corepuncher]

We've got several things brewing. Possible head and shoulders (LS=Mid Dec, Head=Early Jan, Right shoulder=now).

Also, Jan 28th (873) and Today(??) could be a double top...in which we would likely sell back down to low 800s.

Plans to be unveiled next week....oh boy, can't wait! Not a believer.

We will have spiraling credit card and other loan defaults very, very soon....mark my words on that one. Companies such as JPM Chase are clamping down hard, right now. I was just forced to close an account b/c of their draconian measures...and my mother, who runs a small business, cannot afford her payment on a card she relies on for her store. We are losing half a million jobs PER MONTH...with no signs of slowing down. This will become a negative feedback mechanism and God forbid the dollar crashes because of those in Washington who think they can spend their way out of this with money we don't have. G baby!

Dang it...this is a ZERO SUM GAME! You can't spend money you don't have on making "3 million jobs", and say it is "fixed" because we replenished the jobs that were lost. The "money" has to come from somewhere, and it will come out of our A$$, the dollar will suffer horribly.

 

[JTH]

Hello CP

I concure with your view on AGG and I'm watching it like a hawk looking for signs of a turn-around-entry-point.

If money isn't going into bonds and stocks are in a trading channel, then show me the money!

 

[Birchtree]

The blessing is that if the dollar drops the I fund will rise from the ash pile. If you were to say that a rally in a longer term prediction will eventually find resistance at the 200-day moving avergae and the rise comes to a halt in a couple of months from now - I could be a believer. The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. We are getting set for (finally) the mother of all short squeezes.

 

[Corepuncher]

The blessing is that if the dollar drops the I fund will rise from the ash pile. If you were to say that a rally in a longer term prediction will eventually find resistance at the 200-day moving avergae and the rise comes to a halt in a couple of months from now - I could be a believer. The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. We are getting set for (finally) the mother of all short squeezes.

I just hope that the mother of all short squeezes happens TODAY!!!

 

[Gumby]

Dang it...this is a ZERO SUM GAME! You can't spend money you don't have on making "3 million jobs", and say it is "fixed" because we replenished the jobs that were lost. The "money" has to come from somewhere, and it will come out of our A$$, the dollar will suffer horribly.

It is going to take a long, long time to replenish the jobs lost. The government'a method is to "rob Peter to pay paul" with their approach. Issue more new bonds to pay interest on the old ones. How long can they keep interest rates at historically low prices? The taxpayer is caught up in a huge Ponzi scheme with no end in site. Just wait until this bubble explodes.

 

[Birchtree]

The jobs number is about the same as the 1982 bottom - only now there are many more people employed. So the situation is by no means dire and our eventual return to growth will provide ample job opportunities.

 

[Corepuncher]

Consumer credit numbers come out in 20 min...I will bet they are much worse than expected (-XX billions). Expected is -3.5 billion.

 

[Corepuncher]

Consumer credit numbers come out in 20 min...I will bet they are much worse than expected (-XX billions). Expected is -3.5 billion.

-6.6 Billion vs. consensus -3.5 Billion. November revised to -11.0 Billion from -7.9 Billion. Market ticked down. Closing rally may be in jeapardy. My only hope is that a bunch of people have been waiting in the wings to buy...and will buy at 860-863...for a ramping close to 880! Booyah!

 

[Gumby]

The jobs number is about the same as the 1982 bottom - only now there are many more people employed. So the situation is by no means dire and our eventual return to growth will provide ample job opportunities.

So the situation is by no means dire....

If the situation is NOT dire...then why are the Senators running around like a bunch of chickens in a Tyson factory trying to approve a massive "spending bill" to create jobs?

 

[Corepuncher]

If the situation is NOT dire...then why are the Senators running around like a bunch of chickens in a Tyson factory trying to approve a massive "spending bill" to create jobs?

We are losing half a million jobs per month for the last 3 months now...and this latest month was the worst. If you assume 500K a month is a .4% decrease in employment, then we'll be at 10% unemployment rate by August.

 

[Birchtree]

Because they will have to pay more unemployment compensation and won't be collecting any taxes. It reduces their potential for social welfare policies and that consitutency is very important to the Donkey.

 

[Corepuncher]

Currently 100% G and willing to wait a while. We could very well rally to 900 or so but I'll sit this one out with a small profit and be happy.

I bet we will break back into the 700s on the S&P before the end of March. Once we hit 804 again, chalk it up, we're breaking lower. That means a minimum of 9% to be gained if you sold today. In reality, I'm looking for 750ish to buy some stocks.

That will be a nice 16% gain when I buy back at 750.

 

[Birchtree]

Peter Schiff is sitting out on one of my tree limbs - it's time to saw it off.

http://safehaven.com/article-12533.htm

 

[Gumby]

Peter Schiff is sitting out on one of my tree limbs - it's time to saw it off.

http://safehaven.com/article-12533.htm

I would say Schiff is right on target.

 

[Corepuncher]

Latest output. Turned more "green" today.

The 2 "best" matches are Mid January 2001, and late March 1982.

In 2001, the market rallied 3.5% over the next 2 weeks from January before falling 17% down by mid April.

In 1982, the market rallied 6% by May, then bottomd in August, approximately 10% down from March levels.

In analog-land, that would put us in the 900-920 range before tanking again. BE QUICK OR BE DEAD.
==================================================================

 

[JTH]

Peter Schiff is sitting out on one of my tree limbs - it's time to saw it off.

http://safehaven.com/article-12533.htm

You my friend are correct. I've got nothing against Peter, but let us not forget he is an AVID gold collector.

Therefore, he has a vested interest in wanting this market to bomb. :suspicious:

 

[Boghie]

Peter Schiff's in a rut...

He has his vision...

A Grand and Unified theory.

Is he now living in his timeline...

Or, is this, his timeline, a was...

Reading the link BirchTree posted, I get the feeling that this chap is waiting for his projected Black Swan to finish crapping on us. He wants completeness to his mathmatic model. He expects beauty.

To me, a far more thoughtful review and look forward was offered by Ray Dalio (whom I have never heard of) in:

"Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long" ( http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html?mod=djemWR&page=sp )

I got that article from Paul Kedrosky's blog (another person I have never heard of). ( http://paul.kedrosky.com/ )

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Peter Schiff's in a rut...

To me, a far more thoughtful review and look forward was offered by Ray Dalio (whom I have never heard of) in:

"Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long" ( http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html?mod=djemWR&page=sp )

I got that article from Paul Kedrosky's blog (another person I have never heard of). ( http://paul.kedrosky.com/ )

That was an EXCELLENT article, thanks!
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html?mod=djemWR&page=sp