Corepuncher's Account Talk

[ATCJeff]

Yeah, I pretty much agree ATC. Since I can't buy in anymore this month...maybe being a little stingy on selling my 50% is the right call.

My call is for a feeble rally back to the 20 day SMA.

SELL TARGET: Low 880s

agree but now Apple is pushing futures down........I knew Jobs was sick!

 

[Corepuncher]

I can't seem to find the post but I guaranteed anyone who got out at least a 10% gain (or 10% increase in shares) and it has occurred (sell 930s buy 840s).
For those of you who took my advice, congratulations, I hope you are enjoying your bounty.

The current charts look amazingly similar to my forecast made on 1/9.

Current:

forecast...

Just saying, it's obviously still a bear market and there is no reason to be bullish.

 

[JTH]

I can't seem to find the post but I guaranteed anyone who got out at least a 10% gain (or 10% increase in shares) and it has occurred (sell 930s buy 840s).
For those of you who took my advice, congratulations, I hope you are enjoying your bounty.

Hey, you're number 4 on the tracker, that's awesome! I can't say you didn't warn me huh? Oh well, I'll be looking for my sell target some time after the Obama fizzle. Or I'll just be stuborn and stay in untill I make a profit (of course that could take 2-3 years.) :suspicious:

Either ways, good call. Considering the volitility of this market, You've made some great calls this past year.

 

[HedgeHog]

If the Obama fizzle could only be like FDR's. Look at this quote from an article about new presidents effects on the market that was written just prior to Clinton being sworn in Jan. 1993 . Found it on a yahoo search.

"The exception was the first 100 days of Franklin D. Roosevelt, when the Dow rose a phenomenal 43 percent as the new president remade the battered economy in a whirlwind of legislation that is unlikely to be repeated by Bill Clinton or anyone else".

It of course would be to good to be true to see an Obama bounce like this. There are some similarities though. hh From this link:

http://iht.com/articles/1993/01/08/wall.php?page=1

 

[Corepuncher]

Nice intraday turnaround! Even had some volume behind it. But don't be fooled.

Background pattern remains the same...bear market. As is common over the last year or so...we sometimes get a bounce off the lower bollinger band up to test the 20 day SMA. Currently, that would put is into the lower 880s. I'm thinking we'll hit some serious molasses 870-880. Shorts wil attack anything CLOSE to 900 with full fury, and drive the market back down. The bears can smell the blood of a retest of the lows.

Let the Obama bounce happen, if it is going to happen. I will gladly sell my 50% C fund holding. I"m going with the past chart performance here...a bounce to the 20 SMA and then within 1-2 weeks, a new leg lower.

BTW...great call those of you who recently went S fund...great gain today!

 

[Boghie]

Sell 930s Buy 840s!!!

Sell 930s Buy 840s...
For those of you who took my advice, congratulations, I hope you are enjoying your bounty.

Figured it out myself - albiet a bit late. I was figuring off the C Fund price - buy at $9.70, sell at $10.30. However, using the C Fund pricing is too slow.

Regardless, my brilliant Market Timing Instincts natuarally got the best of me. Got greedy. Thinking we were in "The One's" market boomlet and didn't even use my own criteria. Watched it go up and up and away to $10.52. Then didn't pull the trigger on the sale till $10.08. Missed the trade by a couple of days.

Now, with your spread based on the index I can watch things easier...

Will I market time the buy!!! Probably... So, my guess is that my next comment will be "Missed it by that much" - yuk, yuk...

Thanks CorePuncher

 

[Corepuncher]

Just a thought here. If you believe that we will suffer from deflation, then it makes sense that you should NOT expect to make any money in the equity markets. So if you know there is to be deflation...holding in G, even holding in "matress"...is a good move. No wonder everyone is going into bonds for near zero return.

I still feel a test and break of 741 is certain...probably this year. Not going to risk more than 50% at any one time.

Circuit City gone. 500+ store liquidating. Hmm...that's gonna put a dent in commercial real estate prices.

Good chance Citibank and the rest go to zero stock price. XLF/financials are not participating in this "rally"...this "infrastructure rally". Without financials, how can the markets work right? FUBAR.

 

[Show-me]

I agree, the jobs numbers are going to kill the next two months.

 

[Corepuncher]

I agree, the jobs numbers are going to kill the next two months.

We'll probably lose as many jobs as Obama "creates." If that is a "push", then we are left in the same place we are now...except even more debt.

If I hear one more thing about stimulating the consumer, I'm gonna puke. Seriously...how irresponsible and idiotic can you get? Give the crack addict more crack to solve the problem when using crack IS the problem? Do you see what is going on here? THEY want to stimulate the consumer. THEY do not care if you are in debt until you die. THEY just want to save themselves. THEY are the ones who have the big bucks. Banks, Congress. They are taking care of their own...ALL IN THE NAME OF "MAIN STREET" but that is BS.

Debt Meter: FULL

And that is why banks are not "lending"...there is nobody to lend TO! Rates already zero...banks going down...back's against the wall. You can stock the store full of bicycles with a price of 1 cent...but if no one in town has legs, it won't matter. Government can buy those people bikes to "stimulate" the economy...but it's like a weekend at Bernies. YOU are the one making Bernie move, not Bernie. "Please Bernie...wake up, I NEED YOU TO MAKE MORE MONEY!" - Signed, those with the big bucks.

 

[Show-me]

I love the new article that Chrysler Financial is going to lend a ton of the $1.5 B at ZERO interest up to 5 years and on low MPG vehicles like truck and vans. LOL

 

[Show-me]

They sucked me into their website for just a second and then I got sticker shock and went away.

 

[Corepuncher]

They sucked me into their website for just a second and then I got sticker shock and went away.

How about that new Camaro!

http://www.chevrolet.com/camaro/

Although, from GM's website they don't even link to the camaro page...and they dont' even show it as one of their cars when you flip through the cars. IDIOTS!

Seriously, go here: http://www.gm.com/vehicles/results.jsp?brand=chevrolet they don't show it. So they leave their premiere car off the website. Good grief!

 

[Boghie]

Treasury Getting Rev'd Up to Raid 'G Fund'!!!

Current Federal Debt Ceiling: $11.3 Trillion
Current Federal Debt: $10.7 Trillion
Another 'Stimulus': $875 Billion

Do the math, assume Congress will posture on the debt ceiling (what a joke), and you get the biannual bailout of the Federal Government's credit card mavens by holders of the 'G Fund'.

By the way, here is an article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/07/AR2006030701736_pf.html

And, two years prior: http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/1004/101404cdpm1.htm

Just another fiscal 'emergency'.

I have also noticed that the 'G Fund' return has been shrinking. Who makes that call???

Me, I will have no money for the biggest bad debtor to borrow from in the February/March timeframe. They will have to increase the debt ceiling, finance the normal annual deficit, and finance the bi-annual 'stimulus' package - me thinks there is some risk in that, eh... They must love the IFT limitations, eh...

Finally, I think we are deflating right now and will be doing so for some time. Like CorePuncher stated, who is running out there to borrow money for a meal at Outback or to buy a car to replace the 5 year old one in the parking spot? Then, we get massive inflation!!! A season of joy.

 

[budnipper1]

How about that new Camaro!
http://www.chevrolet.com/camaro/

Looks good, but I hate how all the newer cars hide the engine under all the shroudings.
They try their damdest to make it impossible for shade-trees to do their own tune-ups!

View attachment 5461
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[mick504]

I haven't heard anything from the Obama camp that will fix the economy...and I believe 2009 will be the 'year of layoffs' and some business closures, maybe that's what we need is to clean house. The problem is that the real problem of overpriced=overvalued houses still exist. The banks aren't lending as cash still isn't available. I thought the main problem was the mortgages and overvalued houses which have not being addressed. Maybe that will take a separate bailout of a few trillion or so. Isn't there a 'business plan' anywhere! Maybe they need to call in the greatest business minds around....and forget the politics to solve the crisis! I expect the S & P to fall based on all the layoffs and bad news further...after Obama mania and swearing in!!!!!!!!!

 

[Corepuncher]

We hear about how too many houses were built and how there are too many credit card accounts out there...but also imagine how many unneeded stores companies built/overexpansion that went on during the cheap money "boom". It was enabled by super high leverage...but that is gone. This deleveraging is nowhere near over...and it will take down thousands of stores and jobs with it. It is deleveraging that MUST and WILL occur, unless home prices suddenly rocket back up.

Game Over.

I'm 50% in stocks and if we manage to get some sort of inauguration bounce of 1-2%...I'm soooo out...again.

 

[malyla]

We hear about how too many houses were built and how there are too many credit card accounts out there...but also imagine how many unneeded stores companies built/overexpansion that went on during the cheap money "boom". It was enabled by super high leverage...but that is gone. This deleveraging is nowhere near over...and it will take down thousands of stores and jobs with it. It is deleveraging that MUST and WILL occur, unless home prices suddenly rocket back up.

Game Over.

I'm 50% in stocks and if we manage to get some sort of inauguration bounce of 1-2%...I'm soooo out...again.

I agree with you. Just wanted to say that your posts have become a must read for me. Thanks for sharing. Good luck next week.

 

[Show-me]

We hear about how too many houses were built and how there are too many credit card accounts out there...but also imagine how many unneeded stores companies built/overexpansion that went on during the cheap money "boom". It was enabled by super high leverage...but that is gone. This deleveraging is nowhere near over...and it will take down thousands of stores and jobs with it. It is deleveraging that MUST and WILL occur, unless home prices suddenly rocket back up.

Game Over.

I'm 50% in stocks and if we manage to get some sort of inauguration bounce of 1-2%...I'm soooo out...again.

I think you are spot on, and the lenders know it too. That is why credit is still tight. Think about it, if you knew you had more write offs coming down the pipe and you absolutely knew the weak economy was going to cause defaults on tons of commercial real estate.

Would you lend out your cash reserves that you just got from the taxpayers shore up you balance sheets? Come on, the writing is on the wall.

The nightmare is just beginning, $55 TRILLION in Credit Default Swap floating around the world, plus the actual mortgages, plus all of the other US debt and obligations. The horse is dead and now we are just pushing it deeper into the ground. Lets not forget credit card and revolving credit as a whole in default.

I live in the rural Midwest and historically we are the last to feel the effects of a economic crisis. Huge lag here in all aspects. Last week the layoffs and plant shut downs began in earnest. Hours cut back to 32 a week or less for those still with a job.

Local newspaper folks that set type are scared of loosing jobs because ad revenue and disappeared.

Farmers cutting back on fertilizer and chemicals to tough it out for a year and see what happens.

The writing is on the wall and this is the inauguration lull before the storm. People are stock up of goods and spending little on extras.

I keep hearing the idiots on TV saying this is the bottom. Fact is NOBODY can call the bottom! The bottom is in place when you look back three months and go "oh, there it is". None of the baseline moving averages have turned up and it is as simple as that.

 

[justbizness45]

CP, I just wanted to echo Malyla's sentiment. Your thread is a daily must read for several of us. Thanks for continung to post.

 

[Corepuncher]

CP, I just wanted to echo Malyla's sentiment. Your thread is a daily must read for several of us. Thanks for continung to post.

Thanks you two :embarrest: