Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Just put in an application to refi a 30yr fixed at 4.75 0/0 (no pts)....and my 2nd mortgage goes to 5.75%.

Sure...rates could fall another 0.5%...but I'm not going to get greedy and chance it!

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/07/business/yuan.php

 

[Birchtree]

The Fed was in the market today buying CMOs from Fannie and Freddie as well as Ginnie May - rates are coming down again.

 

[JTH]

Just put in an application to refi a 30yr fixed at 4.75 0/0 (no pts)....and my 2nd mortgage goes to 5.75%.

Sure...rates could fall another 0.5%...but I'm not going to get greedy and chance it!

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/07/business/yuan.php

I'm sitting at 6.25%

I Applied for a 4.75% loan, but they would only approve 5% and it would have tacked on nearly 4,000.

I deceided I'd rather not, since I don't plan on living there long. Best of luck!

 

[Corepuncher]

We all know that the government is big and bulky and in-efficient. Unfortunately, it is the government we are all relying on. Middle class welfare....crushing the animal spirits.

My theory is that once the Government stops buying bonds and such, China will pull out. Why would they want to lend us so much money, when A) they need stimulus themselves and B) we are just going to dole it out in welfare checks? Refi ASAP....low rates probably won't last..despite a near depression.

------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 1/8/09
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2009 YTD Return:+1.65%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: < 860 is a partial buy...all in near 750.
------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Final: -10.90% ...took a gamble and lost...but also won.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[JTH]

Why would they want to lend us so much money, when A) they need stimulus themselves and B) we are just going to dole it out in welfare checks?

China wants me to have a welfare check. After all most poor people shop at Wallmart and about 70% of their stuff is made in China.

Just try finding something there that's made in America. It's really disturbing... :worried:

 

[wv-girl]

Middle class welfare....crushing the animal spirits.

quote]

Middle class..what middle class....I consider myself upper poor thankyouverymuch.:laugh:

 

[RPM]

Just put in an application to refi a 30yr fixed at 4.75 0/0 (no pts)....and my 2nd mortgage goes to 5.75%.

Sure...rates could fall another 0.5%...but I'm not going to get greedy and chance it!

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/07/business/yuan.php

Corepuncher:

Where did you get your refi at that rate? in CA where I live, the cheapest I can find is still at 5%...

Thanks,

 

[Corepuncher]

Corepuncher:

Where did you get your refi at that rate? in CA where I live, the cheapest I can find is still at 5%...

Thanks,

Bank of Oklahoma.

 

[Corepuncher]

Sorry "DOW Theorists". Dow Transports one of the worst performing sectors today...and that is despite falling oil prices. Airlines as well. In addition, the "january effect" looks like it will be a negative one this year.

Everything is down. Breadth is impressive. Jobs report wasn't even as bad as feared. All I see is PONZI and TAX EVASION and SCANDAL and STIMULUS. Home builders also getting killed...despite record low rates. Deflate deflate deflate! Time for some more market sifting. I'm looking at 815-850 for an initial (partial) buy.

Now someone please give me half as many reasons for a bullish case...other than hand waving and comparing to the past. The government IS the economy right now. Bleak.

No reason to buy in today...that would be jumping the gun. Let some more **** poor earnings come out...even prior to inauguration day (if you think that is somehow a positive).

 

[gonefishin]

Hello Corepuncher, just noticed your location. I guess Norman is kinda gloomy today after last night. I spent alot of time in Norman when I worked with the Postal Service, really like the town, just not enough hills and water for me. Me and my G are happy as can be.

 

[Corepuncher]

Hello Corepuncher, just noticed your location. I guess Norman is kinda gloomy today after last night. I spent alot of time in Norman when I worked with the Postal Service, really like the town, just not enough hills and water for me. Me and my G are happy as can be.

Luckily I went to school at KU so I'm not too upset about the Sooners...although it was a really poor performance. 2 1st and goals that they had horrible play calling on...unbelievable. Time for some house cleaning on those sidelines!

 

[nasa1974]

Luckily I went to school at KU so I'm not too upset about the Sooners...although it was a really poor performance. 2 1st and goals that they had horrible play calling on...unbelievable. Time for some house cleaning on those sidelines!

I feel your pain. OH........IO Go Bucs....................

 

[Corepuncher]

I did a little analysis tonight. I see several down catalysts coming our way. The more immediate ones include poor earnings over the next couple weeks (short term)...and longer term, commercial real estate as well as a consumer credit DISASTER. Not to mention I think job losses will ACCELERATE soon.

Still 100G...waiting to buy. Target for 50% C = just shy of 850...while a break of 850 will make me wait for < 820. Now, here's why:

 

[JTH]

Great post CP, if your trying to depress me, it's working.

I have some homework to do this weekend, thanks for pointing those things out.

 

[Gumby]

CP

Excellent analysis....thanks for sharing with us.

 

[turbo23dog]

I completely agree that your study provides ample cause for concern, but I feel its more in the intermediate term rather than near term...

The markets hardly reacted to the bad news on jobs yesterday (Fri 09 Jan). One can only assume that near term bad news is already priced in.

Also, what about an Obama bounce in the near term?

 

[Corepuncher]

I keep hearing talk about some "rally" that might occur soon. Some say it's an "Obama bounce"...others just wave their hands and say we are due, or spout some other type of nebulous crap.

The unemployment rate is increasing at 0.5% PER MONTH...and earnings estimates are on the way down and going lower. We are flooding the system with liquidity, yet it is not flowing. Why? Because the only people who NEED this money are the same folks who SHOULD NOT get this money because they are not credit worthy. Passing the fogged mirror test will not work any longer...unless they just get utterly STUPID and give out money for free to anyone, knowing they will not get it paid back.

I'll tell you something...banks are not stupid and it does not matter what the government says, I think banks would rather not take government money than have to lend it to unworthy applicants. Despite the government saying "LEND LEND LEND!!", the banks are saying "Screw You!" and instead demanding even more money from their debtors. Take me for example...just 2 days ago...I was informed by JP MORGAN/CHASE that my min payment on my credit card is increasing by 150%. That's right...it is now 2.5 TIMES the original. WHY? Because they lent to me at a fixed 2.99%...and are not making any money off me. IN ADDITION...they are charging a 10 dollar/month fee...JUST TO HAVE A CREDIT CARD ACCOUNT OPEN!! And by the way, I have excellent credit and have never missed a payment in my life.

So, that is telling...the banks are taking it from the people, instead of lending it. I'm fairly well-to-do...I can only imagine what happens to average Joe when his min payment goes from 100/month to 250/month...PLUS FEES!

Anyway, I'm personally taking out a TSP loan (at 2.125%) and paying off that garbage CHASE CARD, and I will NEVER return to them! Here's another example...my friend works for MER and makes about 300K per year or something similar. He was a couple days late on a mortgage payment...then got a letter from Citibank saying they are cutting off his card because he is now too risky!!!! Get ready, it's going to happen to everyone.

This is going to put a serious crimp on consumer spending, don't you think?! Meredith Whitney is right...they are going to rein in those credit lines. Too bad, so sad. Thousands of stores will close, commercial real estate will bust, deflation...deflation...job losses...etc. Not good and I feel very comfortable taking out a TSP loan for 1.5 years.

Markets will go sideways...at best. For at least 2009 if not 2010 as well. Allocate accordingly.

 

[wv-girl]

I keep hearing talk about some "rally" that might occur soon. Some say it's an "Obama bounce"...others just wave their hands and say we are due, or spout some other type of nebulous crap.

The unemployment rate is increasing at 0.5% PER MONTH...and earnings estimates are on the way down and going lower. We are flooding the system with liquidity, yet it is not flowing. Why? Because the only people who NEED this money are the same folks who SHOULD NOT get this money because they are not credit worthy. Passing the fogged mirror test will not work any longer...unless they just get utterly STUPID and give out money for free to anyone, knowing they will not get it paid back.

I'll tell you something...banks are not stupid and it does not matter what the government says, I think banks would rather not take government money than have to lend it to unworthy applicants. Despite the government saying "LEND LEND LEND!!", the banks are saying "Screw You!" and instead demanding even more money from their debtors. Take me for example...just 2 days ago...I was informed by JP MORGAN/CHASE that my min payment on my credit card is increasing by 150%. That's right...it is now 2.5 TIMES the original. WHY? Because they lent to me at a fixed 2.99%...and are not making any money off me. IN ADDITION...they are charging a 10 dollar/month fee...JUST TO HAVE A CREDIT CARD ACCOUNT OPEN!! And by the way, I have excellent credit and have never missed a payment in my life.

So, that is telling...the banks are taking it from the people, instead of lending it. I'm fairly well-to-do...I can only imagine what happens to average Joe when his min payment goes from 100/month to 250/month...PLUS FEES!

Anyway, I'm personally taking out a TSP loan (at 2.125%) and paying off that garbage CHASE CARD, and I will NEVER return to them! Here's another example...my friend works for MER and makes about 300K per year or something similar. He was a couple days late on a mortgage payment...then got a letter from Citibank saying they are cutting off his card because he is now too risky!!!! Get ready, it's going to happen to everyone.

This is going to put a serious crimp on consumer spending, don't you think?! Meredith Whitney is right...they are going to rein in those credit lines. Too bad, so sad. Thousands of stores will close, commercial real estate will bust, deflation...deflation...job losses...etc. Not good and I feel very comfortable taking out a TSP loan for 1.5 years.

Markets will go sideways...at best. For at least 2009 if not 2010 as well. Allocate accordingly.

I agree. I gotten a couple of letters lately, from Capital One telling me they are closing my cc due to inactivity. My cc have been paid off for years and have no balance, but the acct was still open. Guess they figured they couldn't make any money off me. They said within 60 days(hint, hint). I cut it up and threw it in the trash. But your right about tsp. Thank goodness, if a loan is needed, you can borrow from yourself and pay yourself interest. Can't get any better than that. Also enjoy reading your post.

 

[malyla]

I agree. I gotten a couple of letters lately, from Capital One telling me they are closing my cc due to inactivity. My cc have been paid off for years and have no balance, but the acct was still open. Guess they figured they couldn't make any money off me. They said within 60 days(hint, hint). I cut it up and threw it in the trash. But your right about tsp. Thank goodness, if a loan is needed, you can borrow from yourself and pay yourself interest. Can't get any better than that. Also enjoy reading your post.

Both Chase and BofA tried to charge me a monthly fee for an inactive cc. In one instance, I had the options of refusing this fee by writting a letter saying NO Thankyou. That worked and BofA has not 'taxed' me for having their card. Chase required a phone call. I have not seen any fees yet so time will tell. Anytime you receive an update letter with new information on your account (all written in eye straining and brain numbing type/language), it pays to read the fee changes and interest changes paragraph. I was surprised that BofA gave the option to refuse with a written letter (I made a copy for my records). I do remember this happening about 6-7 years ago during the last recession. CC consumers are the easy targets. Be careful out there.

 

[wv-girl]

Both Chase and BofA tried to charge me a monthly fee for an inactive cc. In one instance, I had the options of refusing this fee by writting a letter saying NO Thankyou. That worked and BofA has not 'taxed' me for having their card. Chase required a phone call. I have not seen any fees yet so time will tell. Anytime you receive an update letter with new information on your account (all written in eye straining and brain numbing type/language), it pays to read the fee changes and interest changes paragraph. I was surprised that BofA gave the option to refuse with a written letter (I made a copy for my records). I do remember this happening about 6-7 years ago during the last recession. CC consumers are the easy targets. Be careful out there.

Thanks Malyla
I will double check on my chase card now. It too has no balance, but, as of yet. I had not seen any attempts to charge me a fee.