Corepuncher's Account Talk

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Thanks much to the upstream posts on credit card changes and fees. I have several relatively inactive cards and routinely discard disclosure notices. Now I have a heads up that I should look at them closely and be prepared to decline changes.
 
CP - In my view the Markets are long overdue to take a significant fall. You had mentioned 850 as a point of strong resistence; where it is hard to me to see that.

I feel that weakness in the Markets is only now beginning to happen and they have not substantially dropped to realistic levels. Once the 'real drops' begin to take place I see it going below 850.

If you only have 1 IFT - I'd say hold on and wait for a bigger drop.

***********************************************************

As for the Chase Credit Cards - (and all Credit Cards)

Banks are needing money and they are going to find ways of getting it. Chase has repeatedly offered me VIP Status along with various means of Protection - but the FINE PRINT - shows annual fees and a reduction of my current benefits.

I have NO ANNUAL FEES AND GET 5% Back on all purchaces for gas, groceries, pharmacies...

Always be on the Look Out - and let the MB know when something happens. Thanks everyone
 
Resisted the urge to buy today. Thought about 25% but then I figured what's the use if it's only that much. I'll play the larger scale waves.

The way we have reversed the recent rally so quickly is a bad sign. Don't stick out your hand or you might get impaled.

Also...I figured there might be a chance of a end of day rebound given modest volume. That could take us back to 890 or so. I'll wait for a follow through day that is solidly down through the 20 day SMA. Small Caps are not that solidly through it yet...but soon. Dow Transports look horrible.
 
Corepuncher said:
Resisted the urge to buy today. Thought about 25% but then I figured what's the use if it's only that much. I'll play the larger scale waves.

The way we have reversed the recent rally so quickly is a bad sign. Don't stick out your hand or you might get impaled.

Also...I figured there might be a chance of a end of day rebound given modest volume. That could take us back to 890 or so. I'll wait for a follow through day that is solidly down through the 20 day SMA. Small Caps are not that solidly through it yet...but soon. Dow Transports look horrible.
Click to expand...


CP

I think you are looking at this market and may possibly have a good feel for where it is headed. :)
 
I developed a spreadsheet that will help you decide whether it is worth it to take out a TSP loan in order to pay off another loan. The bottom line is that the "answer" is highly dependent on what you expect your TSP to earn. You may expect it to earn 2% in G over 12 months or 7% in C over 60 months. The only pitfall is, you really don't know. It's a gamble. But, this calculator will give you some good estimates.

I took into account how much the loan amount WOULD have made had it stayed in TSP. I also calculate the compounding interest your PAYMENT BACK into TSP will make, as well as the 50 dollar loan fee.

For the loan you want to pay off, I allow for a fixed monthly payment and also an annual or monthly fee, which many cards are starting to do. Unfortunately, I am not able to calculate a loan with a dynamic minimum payment amount (I have not gotten into programming loops in visual basic/excell yet).

Anyway, you can download it here:

http://www.corepuncher.com/misc/tsploan_public.xls

Enjoy!

PS...I found that it was a good idea for me to do my TSP loan. If the calculator says it is NOT a good idea...try decreasing your loan payback time until it says it's a good idea...then determine if you can afford that min. payment.
 
Corepuncher said:
Resisted the urge to buy today. Thought about 25% but then I figured what's the use if it's only that much. I'll play the larger scale waves.

The way we have reversed the recent rally so quickly is a bad sign. Don't stick out your hand or you might get impaled.

Also...I figured there might be a chance of a end of day rebound given modest volume. That could take us back to 890 or so. I'll wait for a follow through day that is solidly down through the 20 day SMA. Small Caps are not that solidly through it yet...but soon. Dow Transports look horrible.
Click to expand...
I resisted as well. I only have ONE IFT for entry into stocks this month. I need to make it count for what I feel is a bottom (or some semblance thereof) and do not have the luxury of averaging down. This TOTALLY s*cks.
Freakin' restrictions, man. :notrust:

The C broke decisively down through both the 20 and 50 SMAs and is likely headed to the bottom boll. band @ approx. 850.
The S is sittin' right on the 50 SMA....shall it bounce - or merely tease us here a couple days before further droppage?

Every day's a mystery.....dangnabbit.
 
Hmmm, futures are down again this morning and Europe is down hard. Not much buying yesterday...the short cover at the end of the day was weak. My initial target has long been 850. However, if we hit 850, that also means we will hit the lower Bollinger Band...and we all know what that has meant (7 for it's last 7...means we will have a leg own soon).

The only play I see, is kinda risky...and that is to sell a possible 1 or 2 days after "Bollinger Bounce" back up to the 20 SMA. This seems to occur most times...but it never last long and you can always just wait a few more days and get in at a lower price.

How are the market metrics right now. The YEN is up again. Oil looks to be down again. Europe down hard. Bonds look like they might be staging a comeback. Futures already down over 1%.

I guess I could dip my toes in a little but look at the chart...do you think 850 will hold? Not with everything simultaneously doing down like it is. Gotta have some kind of leadership. The financials are CRAP. Oil is CRAP. Retail is MEGA-CRAP. What will lead? Utilities or some CRAP like that? Not inspiring. Looking to buy...but maybe not yet. 1 IFT to buy left for JAN. Want to let the blood flow a little more. More bad earnings coming up this month...a better time to buy is coming I think before the end of next week. There are some good ones on Thursday...sure to inspire a rally...NOT! Let everyone get depressed THUR. Friday, well, we are going into an extended holiday weekend...with inauguration the first trading day (Tue) next week. I have decided to fore go my old 850 buy target for a lower one, more like 820.
 
I updated the loan spreadsheet again...now you can enter your loan payment as a percentage of the balance (as is common with credit cards)....download at the link below.
 
Bollinger Band Warning!

I went 50C/50G.

We have hit the lower Bollinger band today! As previously shown, this has resulted in a lower buying point very soon. So why did I buy? Well, after the 1st penetration, it typicaly BOUNCES the very next day! Check it out...

Times we bounced (1st day after penetration)....

10/22/07
1/07/08
5/27/08
9/05/08
11/13/08

Will it be 1/15/08 now?? Some indicators are oversold. I'm hoping for a CLOSE at the lows at or below 820. I feel lower 800s will be good support...for now.
 
Corepuncher: Buy might be too soon. The market can typically slide along the BB bands as they turn downward, or completely step outside for 3-5 days. IMO it is not a reliable indicator by itself. When used with RSI, new highs/lows, VIX and sto, as well as chart channel pattern, it would give a better picture. Anyhow, you have taken a gutsy move!
 
Uptrend said:
Corepuncher: Buy might be too soon. The market can typically slide along the BB bands as they turn downward, or completely step outside for 3-5 days. IMO it is not a reliable indicator by itself. When used with RSI, new highs/lows, VIX and sto, as well as chart channel pattern, it would give a better picture. Anyhow, you have taken a gutsy move!
Click to expand...

Totally agree it is too soon...but I'm playing for a bounce THU or FRI..that is it! If I get caught in during a slide...well, I'll throw the other half in after 2/1...which isn't that far away. I'm long term bearish so I can always buy in lower at a later time.

Well, my last few moves since 10/30...

Sell 931
Buy 892
Sell 910
Buy 880
Sell 932
Buy today. We are down 10% from 932...so I feel pretty good about securing 50% of that move in my account.
 
CP - This is personal - just my gut - but exactly how I like it.

Had the Markets kept diving throughout the day... it would seem more likely the sell off would continue tomorrow.

They crashed wonderfully -- rode on the bottom and stayed there... that makes me believe the odds of a bounce is much better.

I think most of us realize we are still in a Bear Market and will likely go down quite a bit before it's all over. But days like this are rare. :cool:
 
ATCJeff said:
I agree...though I may only sell half
Click to expand...

Yeah, I pretty much agree ATC. Since I can't buy in anymore this month...maybe being a little stingy on selling my 50% is the right call.

My call is for a feeble rally back to the 20 day SMA.

SELL TARGET: Low 880s
 
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