Gumby
Active member
I agree.
The Obama rally won't last. I am on the sidelines in TSP.....just bought some more SDS @ $69 in my trading account.
When will Bernake and Paulsen learn you can't spend your way into prosperity?
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Corepuncher's Account Talk
- Thread starter Corepuncher
- Start date
I agree.
The Obama rally won't last. I am on the sidelines in TSP.....just bought some more SDS @ $69 in my trading account.
When will Bernake and Paulsen learn you can't spend your way into prosperity?
With me being the riverboat gambler mentality, I had decided to get risky on the history of Jan. 2, being a big winner. That is coupled with the fact that new administration is in, new party, a whole new outlook with new ideas, Wall Street should be rockin'? Earlier the futures were up and looking good. G-25%, C-50%, S-15%, I-10%, I wish a Happy New Year to all and keep updating often!! FEAR THE TURTLE
Mista_Magee
Member
I wish I had known about the history of Jan. 2nd earlier. Wishing all the best in 09.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I don't know about you, but the only reasons I see behind this rally are the following...
1) It's a new year
2) We are all happy it is a new year
3) We will have a new president
4) Some of us are happy we have a new president
Not exactly good fundamentals to go on here. I don't trust this low volume "rally". The entire world economic system is very unstable...expect an explosion of volatility within 1-2 months.
1) It's a new year
2) We are all happy it is a new year
3) We will have a new president
4) Some of us are happy we have a new president
Not exactly good fundamentals to go on here. I don't trust this low volume "rally". The entire world economic system is very unstable...expect an explosion of volatility within 1-2 months.
Warrenlm
Well-known member
I think you're being somewhat facetious, but, for the near term there are other positives, aren't there? (Ignoring the long term effects). Why won't the combining effects of these drive the market higher and continue the "rally" for a couple quarters?
-huge coordinated multi-government stimulus and intervention
-huge coordinated central banks all-out commitments
-huge amount of money moved out of equities, now earning mostly zero interest
-risk-free zero return encourages equities investment, zero Treasuries pushing to corporate bonds and MBS
-this is America, with all that means, somewhere, sometime, a free human will see opportunity and build
-historically low P/E
-LIBOR under control
-banks past 31 Dec and should be shifting to lending in January
-mortgage rates forced down by Fed
-huge coordinated multi-government stimulus and intervention
-huge coordinated central banks all-out commitments
-huge amount of money moved out of equities, now earning mostly zero interest
-risk-free zero return encourages equities investment, zero Treasuries pushing to corporate bonds and MBS
-this is America, with all that means, somewhere, sometime, a free human will see opportunity and build
-historically low P/E
-LIBOR under control
-banks past 31 Dec and should be shifting to lending in January
-mortgage rates forced down by Fed
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Huge coordinated stimulus = printing money.
As for huge amount of money moving out of equities, a portion of that has been vaporized...never to return to the market.
If the money suddenly moves out of treasuries, then rates will skyrocket...further crimping spending that won't happen anyway.
Low P/E? Only because it is based on forward earning estimates that are too high...using the "old way" of an over-leveraged system which no longer exists. As earnings estimates come down over the next several quarters, the market will look more and more expensive at current levels.
Also, we better hope there is not a treasury dislocation before the FED can force down rates...or else they will not be able to come down.
Those are my predictions. You can't compare today to history...the game has changed. Way too much government intervention. Even if you did compare to previous bear markets....there should be a retest of the bottom so why not get out and wait for it...at the very least. Give it time and get your guaranteed positive return in G.
CP,
Yesterday I posted the following in another thred as an effort to shed some perspective on the markets. The time horizon in events is also important to consider. Hope this helps.
Re: P&F Chart School
Happy 2009 for all!
James,
No doubt the pure technical indicator is a good sounding board to be considered. The SPX has risen above the the 20 and 50 DMA, which were previous resistance to the upside. We have broken above them and held so far. Hopefully the 20 and 50 DMA will become strong support to avoid going down much. There will be corrections but I believe these are pretty good support areas. (No guarantees of course!). If we go down next week, I plan to buy in a bit more from my current 80G/20C. Best of wishes!
P.S.
I am not sure exactly what it means, but perhaps someone can pitch in to contibute a bit of clarity to the following. Somewhere I learned that a W pattern that is broken to the upside is quite bullish. Isn't this the case of the SPX breaking out to the upside in a W formation? Of course, all of these are technical analysis concepts that can drown in a Sea of fundamental analysis and/or any surprises in global political problems, etc.
Yesterday I posted the following in another thred as an effort to shed some perspective on the markets. The time horizon in events is also important to consider. Hope this helps.
Happy 2009 for all!
James,
No doubt the pure technical indicator is a good sounding board to be considered. The SPX has risen above the the 20 and 50 DMA, which were previous resistance to the upside. We have broken above them and held so far. Hopefully the 20 and 50 DMA will become strong support to avoid going down much. There will be corrections but I believe these are pretty good support areas. (No guarantees of course!). If we go down next week, I plan to buy in a bit more from my current 80G/20C. Best of wishes!
P.S.
I am not sure exactly what it means, but perhaps someone can pitch in to contibute a bit of clarity to the following. Somewhere I learned that a W pattern that is broken to the upside is quite bullish. Isn't this the case of the SPX breaking out to the upside in a W formation? Of course, all of these are technical analysis concepts that can drown in a Sea of fundamental analysis and/or any surprises in global political problems, etc.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Sold at 932 and 100G and waiting. I don't know what to say except that I am so confident we will retest the lows in the 700s...that I am going to ignore any rallies and wait. Patience will pay off. Come join me.
I will personally gurantee anyone who sells as of 932 or higher a chance to make a minimum of 10% (a buy in at 850). But I would not stop there...wait for a retest and gain a whopping 25% from these levels. If you stay in thinking all is well, you will get killed. The volatility, for one reason or another, will return. Even big grizzly bears have to sleep every once in a while. Hibernation is almost over...what will be the alarm clock?
I will personally gurantee anyone who sells as of 932 or higher a chance to make a minimum of 10% (a buy in at 850). But I would not stop there...wait for a retest and gain a whopping 25% from these levels. If you stay in thinking all is well, you will get killed. The volatility, for one reason or another, will return. Even big grizzly bears have to sleep every once in a while. Hibernation is almost over...what will be the alarm clock?
Gumby
Active member
TerpTrader
Member
LOL...I have a T-shirt of Testudo that sais 'Fear the Turtle' :laugh:
nsurf9
Member
The culprits in this mess have been:
(1) overpriced median house prices fueled by lax (unethical) lending standards outstripping
median income;
(2) inflated oil and other commodity prices fueled by greed, colusion and over-heated
economics (housing, other corporate, and general incremental profits); and then
(3) cumulative effects of 17, or 18, straight one-quarter point increases by the Fed.
Two of the three factors have been negated. Oil prices are sharply down caused by its own market destruction and major systems failures in the credit lending industry; and, the Fed has errased all, and then some, of its interest rate hikes. Presumably, low interest will again boyance house prices and will eventually, if not quickly, increase inflation generally. In the mean time, median home prices continue to be outstrip median income - therein lies the bubble.
Historically high oil prices, too much in the way of interest rates and a realization of the lending shams popped the house bubble and cascaded into popping credit, commodities and, newest on the sceen is substantial increases in unemployment bubbles. Now will unemployment cause another downward recycle.
The corporate-economic engine now has air, fuel, but not spark. And, increases in unemployment will surely continue to significantly dampen that spark. But, if that spark catches the engine on the right timing cycle, with the right air and fuel mixture, I believe the market and our equity indexes will take-off and make-up a significant portion of 2008 losses.
On the other hand, too much fuel or air will put out the spark that starts up the engine. It also reminds me of trying to light an outdoor fire in the cold. If you pour fuel, even gasoline in very cold weather, on our wood while trying to light a fire (stupid I know) - it will actually put out your match (or spark). A quick burst of wind (air) will also put out the match's fire.
Things, right now, are clearly in the up cycle, but be prepared: strap on your seat belts, but be ready to run under the cover of G/F-fund.
(1) overpriced median house prices fueled by lax (unethical) lending standards outstripping
median income;
(2) inflated oil and other commodity prices fueled by greed, colusion and over-heated
economics (housing, other corporate, and general incremental profits); and then
(3) cumulative effects of 17, or 18, straight one-quarter point increases by the Fed.
Two of the three factors have been negated. Oil prices are sharply down caused by its own market destruction and major systems failures in the credit lending industry; and, the Fed has errased all, and then some, of its interest rate hikes. Presumably, low interest will again boyance house prices and will eventually, if not quickly, increase inflation generally. In the mean time, median home prices continue to be outstrip median income - therein lies the bubble.
Historically high oil prices, too much in the way of interest rates and a realization of the lending shams popped the house bubble and cascaded into popping credit, commodities and, newest on the sceen is substantial increases in unemployment bubbles. Now will unemployment cause another downward recycle.
The corporate-economic engine now has air, fuel, but not spark. And, increases in unemployment will surely continue to significantly dampen that spark. But, if that spark catches the engine on the right timing cycle, with the right air and fuel mixture, I believe the market and our equity indexes will take-off and make-up a significant portion of 2008 losses.
On the other hand, too much fuel or air will put out the spark that starts up the engine. It also reminds me of trying to light an outdoor fire in the cold. If you pour fuel, even gasoline in very cold weather, on our wood while trying to light a fire (stupid I know) - it will actually put out your match (or spark). A quick burst of wind (air) will also put out the match's fire.
Things, right now, are clearly in the up cycle, but be prepared: strap on your seat belts, but be ready to run under the cover of G/F-fund.
Re: Airlift's P & F Chart schhool
Theory has it that what ever direction the charts were headed into the W pattern that would be the direction on exiting. Not 100% but a high probability. Of course all other fundamentals being in line. With the unpredictable volatility of this market it somewhat discounts this theory. The VIX currently is at lower levels and would think the W pattern theory would hold. This is a headline driven market and best to be cautious and play defense. If I made some gains going into the W pattern I'd probably look to locking in gains before the exit - hope that helps - FASTRADER
Theory has it that what ever direction the charts were headed into the W pattern that would be the direction on exiting. Not 100% but a high probability. Of course all other fundamentals being in line. With the unpredictable volatility of this market it somewhat discounts this theory. The VIX currently is at lower levels and would think the W pattern theory would hold. This is a headline driven market and best to be cautious and play defense. If I made some gains going into the W pattern I'd probably look to locking in gains before the exit - hope that helps - FASTRADER
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Does anyone know when the tracker will be fixed? It still says I'm 50/50 G/C but that is not correct...if you click on my name I'm 100G. Also, the sorting is off.
KevinD
Well-known member
Corepuncher
Well-known member
------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 1/5/09
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2009 YTD Return: +1.63%
Today: +0.02%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: < 860 is a partial buy...all in near 750. I'm sure SOMETHING will cause the volatility to increase at some point.
------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Final: -10.90%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 1/5/09
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2009 YTD Return: +1.63%
Today: +0.02%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: < 860 is a partial buy...all in near 750. I'm sure SOMETHING will cause the volatility to increase at some point.
------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Final: -10.90%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher
Well-known member
It appears that anyone who made a move on Jan 2nd has an erroneous tracker. The tracker still shows your old allocation...and is working off of that despite your real allocation...which can be found by clicking on your name (they did go through...).
Corepuncher
Well-known member
The dollar looks like it is going to reverse. A potential head and shoulders...and...dual abandoned babies!
I'll go ahead and give myself a .01% today
------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 1/7/09
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2009 YTD Return:+1.64%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: < 860 is a partial buy...all in near 750. I'm sure SOMETHING will cause the volatility to increase at some point.
------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Final: -10.90%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll go ahead and give myself a .01% today
------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 1/7/09
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2009 YTD Return:+1.64%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: < 860 is a partial buy...all in near 750. I'm sure SOMETHING will cause the volatility to increase at some point.
------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Final: -10.90%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Last line of Denningers blog today...in response to Obama's "plan"...
With this policy the S&P 500 will trade at or under 300 :worried: within 18-24 months.
A nuclear bomb went off in the financial world...and many other bombs are left unexploded. S&P 300...400...600...even 700...take your pick...they are all much lower from here so get out! The herd continues to cite valuations and the past this and that. There is no past...and if you remain long, you will get skewered. If it was that good of a buying opportunity...we would see a rocket back up to 1200 at least on the S&P with heavy volume. There is no volume...and my bet is that when it does come back, it will be down volume.
Everyone...don't get caught up in the technicals or what TV people are saying. Look at the state of our economy...how it works and how we got here. Now try to imagine a way to grow out of this...I cannot see it. Those people will kick and scream "the market is cheap!" all the way down to their doom.
With this policy the S&P 500 will trade at or under 300 :worried: within 18-24 months.
A nuclear bomb went off in the financial world...and many other bombs are left unexploded. S&P 300...400...600...even 700...take your pick...they are all much lower from here so get out! The herd continues to cite valuations and the past this and that. There is no past...and if you remain long, you will get skewered. If it was that good of a buying opportunity...we would see a rocket back up to 1200 at least on the S&P with heavy volume. There is no volume...and my bet is that when it does come back, it will be down volume.
Everyone...don't get caught up in the technicals or what TV people are saying. Look at the state of our economy...how it works and how we got here. Now try to imagine a way to grow out of this...I cannot see it. Those people will kick and scream "the market is cheap!" all the way down to their doom.
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