-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
20% Off Annual Premium Subscriptions!*
Ends Jan 18... Click Here For More Information
* For new or current subscribers -
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Corepuncher's Account Talk
- Thread starter Corepuncher
- Start date
ezmoney
Member
I'm sure your right for most people they are a saving grace. However I did rather well with the IFT's I wasn't always right but I did pretty good. Even after the down fall of the stock market and bailouts I have played it safe for the most part. I just like having that option available to me to be able to get in when I feel it's to my advantage and to be able to get back out. Of course like others I'm not always right but I have managed rather well with the IFT's. At any rate you have to deal with the hand that is given to us and work with it. Happy investing to you.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I sense another leg up soon. The charts are firming up, and the IRX is up 700%, budging from it's near zero level. The beginnings of a roar upward?
Look to test 918 very soon. I"ll be a seller 930-950.
Look to test 918 very soon. I"ll be a seller 930-950.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Um, do you think the interest rate cut is built into these numbers? I would hate to see a drop when the rates are cut. I have a couple of shorts on the YEN right now that are weathering all activity on the dollar and I see that oil and gold might be poised for a huge bounce after the news.
Just my views.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
To tell you the truth, I don't think the FED will matter that much today and the market is looking well past that.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
HOLY CRAP look at how bond yields are falling off a cliff!
Gumby
Active member
HOLY CRAP look at how bond yields are falling off a cliff!
Watch all government fixed investment yields head toward nothing.
This is going to be hard on retirees on fixed income.
Gumby
Active member
Try explaining that to my 85 yr old granny.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Hello CP,
The SPX broke out of the 50 SMA 902.37 level and closed at 913.18 in the daily chart yesterday. The FED's action of lowering rates will probably entice investors to abandon less profitable Treasury yields and seek higher gains in stocks. Considering seasonality, the FED lowering rates with the intent to use extaordinary tools to support the markets; and assuming that we break out above the 918 level and approach the top of the Bollinger Band at 938.94, and perhaps reach 950, would you sell all, or do you consider that we have established a very strong support at 918 which might justify selling only part of the SPX and wait for profit taking/or consolidation for the next push above 950? All opinions will be greatly appreciated!
The SPX broke out of the 50 SMA 902.37 level and closed at 913.18 in the daily chart yesterday. The FED's action of lowering rates will probably entice investors to abandon less profitable Treasury yields and seek higher gains in stocks. Considering seasonality, the FED lowering rates with the intent to use extaordinary tools to support the markets; and assuming that we break out above the 918 level and approach the top of the Bollinger Band at 938.94, and perhaps reach 950, would you sell all, or do you consider that we have established a very strong support at 918 which might justify selling only part of the SPX and wait for profit taking/or consolidation for the next push above 950? All opinions will be greatly appreciated!
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Hello CP,
The SPX broke out of the 50 SMA 902.37 level and closed at 913.18 in the daily chart yesterday. The FED's action of lowering rates will probably entice investors to abandon less profitable Treasury yields and seek higher gains in stocks. Considering seasonality, the FED lowering rates with the intent to use extaordinary tools to support the markets; and assuming that we break out above the 918 level and approach the top of the Bollinger Band at 938.94, and perhaps reach 950, would you sell all, or do you consider that we have established a very strong support at 918 which might justify selling only part of the SPX and wait for profit taking/or consolidation for the next push above 950? All opinions will be greatly appreciated!
Anywhere near 950 and I"m selling it all...I only have 50% in after all.
coolhand
Well-known member
Probably a good target. What's amazing is the upside we've had without any selling in the bond market. I'd hate to be out of trades if that decides to unwind.
Coolhand,
Stochastics show that the AGG Bond fund is in overbought territory, but don't you think that having bought at lower levels it would be smart to keep say 10% invested in C or S, while taking 90% to the Lily pad for safety? I am thinking that the unwinding of the bond market perhaps might shift money into stocks?
Stochastics show that the AGG Bond fund is in overbought territory, but don't you think that having bought at lower levels it would be smart to keep say 10% invested in C or S, while taking 90% to the Lily pad for safety? I am thinking that the unwinding of the bond market perhaps might shift money into stocks?
Probably a good target. What's amazing is the upside we've had without any selling in the bond market. I'd hate to be out of trades if that decides to unwind.
coolhand
Well-known member
I'm looking for safety soon, especially since I'm 100% stox and have realized some hefty gains. Although I am thinking we may not see a serious correction until January, so moving to the G fund may be premature as the upside in the stock market is only now confirming a change of trend for many traders. I'm neutral after yesterday's gains and waiting to see what the market does today. Especially volume wise. Light volume to the downside should be seen as a potential bullish continuation of the current uptrend.
The main concern I have is the overbought condition in bonds. If it unwinds to any degree I would expect that cash to move to the stock market. There's not really anywhere else for it to go. So moving to cash the last 2 weeks of December does have some risk if bonds unwind and we're out of trades.
I don't think that will happen just yet though.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I can refi TODAY for 4.875...no pts. 30 yr fixed. I"m thinking about pulling the trigger.
Seems the market is "self fulfilling" the 4.5% prophecy...but the thing is...if everyone waits it could backfire...because if bonds blow up and the bubble pops...rates will skyrocket. Would the FED buy ENOUGH bonds to get rates back down? Who knows. I"m thinking I should not get too greedy. I would go from 5.75 to 4.875...the closing costs would be made up in the first year. My monthly payment would also go down 100 bucks, and pay 2000 less interest per year! Sure I'd like 4.5 but it might not happen. Anyone have an opinion on this? Should I wait?
Seems the market is "self fulfilling" the 4.5% prophecy...but the thing is...if everyone waits it could backfire...because if bonds blow up and the bubble pops...rates will skyrocket. Would the FED buy ENOUGH bonds to get rates back down? Who knows. I"m thinking I should not get too greedy. I would go from 5.75 to 4.875...the closing costs would be made up in the first year. My monthly payment would also go down 100 bucks, and pay 2000 less interest per year! Sure I'd like 4.5 but it might not happen. Anyone have an opinion on this? Should I wait?
poolman
Top Return 2008
I would do it. That is an awesome rate. Why take chances on your mortgage. I have never seen a rate that low.
If it where me I would go for a 15 year fixed.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Actually, shorter term loans such as 15 yr and arms are NOT much different! Guess it all goes toward the same rate when they get low enough?
poolman
Top Return 2008
Yea, I was wondering about that. I was thinking for a 15 year fixed you might get 1/8 less down to 4 3/4.
Still an awesome rate.
Braveheart
Member
I would not wait because everything changes in a split second. Remember the Banks want to make $$$$$$$$ and the low rates could be for a short period as in less than 30 days. Could see 4.75% but I would not wait around. Others may wait for that 4.5% and get it but it is a gamble and they wake up to find rates spike to 5.25% and lose. (You have to know when to walk away and know when to run) Best of Luck !!!
