Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Fireant]

I agree with your thought process CP... DA FIREANT

 

[ezmoney]

I'm sure your right for most people they are a saving grace. However I did rather well with the IFT's I wasn't always right but I did pretty good. Even after the down fall of the stock market and bailouts I have played it safe for the most part. I just like having that option available to me to be able to get in when I feel it's to my advantage and to be able to get back out. Of course like others I'm not always right but I have managed rather well with the IFT's. At any rate you have to deal with the hand that is given to us and work with it. Happy investing to you.

 

[Corepuncher]

I sense another leg up soon. The charts are firming up, and the IRX is up 700%, budging from it's near zero level. The beginnings of a roar upward?

Look to test 918 very soon. I"ll be a seller 930-950.

 

[Frixxxx]

I sense another leg up soon. The charts are firming up, and the IRX is up 700%, budging from it's near zero level. The beginnings of a roar upward?

Look to test 918 very soon. I"ll be a seller 930-950.

Um, do you think the interest rate cut is built into these numbers? I would hate to see a drop when the rates are cut. I have a couple of shorts on the YEN right now that are weathering all activity on the dollar and I see that oil and gold might be poised for a huge bounce after the news.

Just my views.

 

[Corepuncher]

Um, do you think the interest rate cut is built into these numbers? I would hate to see a drop when the rates are cut. I have a couple of shorts on the YEN right now that are weathering all activity on the dollar and I see that oil and gold might be poised for a huge bounce after the news.

Just my views.

To tell you the truth, I don't think the FED will matter that much today and the market is looking well past that.

 

[Corepuncher]

HOLY CRAP look at how bond yields are falling off a cliff!

 

[Gumby]

HOLY CRAP look at how bond yields are falling off a cliff!

Watch all government fixed investment yields head toward nothing.
This is going to be hard on retirees on fixed income.

 

[Birchtree]

The retired can always buy good dividend paying equities - and they should. There is now only one game in town because we are definitely having a yield shortage. It's time to assume some risk.

 

[Gumby]

The retired can always buy good dividend paying equities - and they should. There is now only one game in town because we are definitely having a yield shortage. It's time to assume some risk.

Try explaining that to my 85 yr old granny.

 

[Corepuncher]

Try explaining that to my 85 yr old granny.

Just tell her to sell her soul to Birch, he will help her

 

[airlift]

Hello CP,

The SPX broke out of the 50 SMA 902.37 level and closed at 913.18 in the daily chart yesterday. The FED's action of lowering rates will probably entice investors to abandon less profitable Treasury yields and seek higher gains in stocks. Considering seasonality, the FED lowering rates with the intent to use extaordinary tools to support the markets; and assuming that we break out above the 918 level and approach the top of the Bollinger Band at 938.94, and perhaps reach 950, would you sell all, or do you consider that we have established a very strong support at 918 which might justify selling only part of the SPX and wait for profit taking/or consolidation for the next push above 950? All opinions will be greatly appreciated!

I sense another leg up soon. The charts are firming up, and the IRX is up 700%, budging from it's near zero level. The beginnings of a roar upward?

Look to test 918 very soon. I"ll be a seller 930-950.

 

[Corepuncher]

Hello CP,

The SPX broke out of the 50 SMA 902.37 level and closed at 913.18 in the daily chart yesterday. The FED's action of lowering rates will probably entice investors to abandon less profitable Treasury yields and seek higher gains in stocks. Considering seasonality, the FED lowering rates with the intent to use extaordinary tools to support the markets; and assuming that we break out above the 918 level and approach the top of the Bollinger Band at 938.94, and perhaps reach 950, would you sell all, or do you consider that we have established a very strong support at 918 which might justify selling only part of the SPX and wait for profit taking/or consolidation for the next push above 950? All opinions will be greatly appreciated!

Anywhere near 950 and I"m selling it all...I only have 50% in after all.

 

[coolhand]

Anywhere near 950 and I"m selling it all...I only have 50% in after all.

Probably a good target. What's amazing is the upside we've had without any selling in the bond market. I'd hate to be out of trades if that decides to unwind.

 

[airlift]

Coolhand,

Stochastics show that the AGG Bond fund is in overbought territory, but don't you think that having bought at lower levels it would be smart to keep say 10% invested in C or S, while taking 90% to the Lily pad for safety? I am thinking that the unwinding of the bond market perhaps might shift money into stocks?

Probably a good target. What's amazing is the upside we've had without any selling in the bond market. I'd hate to be out of trades if that decides to unwind.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand,

Stochastics show that the AGG Bond fund is in overbought territory, but don't you think that having bought at lower levels it would be smart to keep say 10% invested in C or S, while taking 90% to the Lily pad for safety? I am thinking that the unwinding of the bond market perhaps might shift money into stocks?

I'm looking for safety soon, especially since I'm 100% stox and have realized some hefty gains. Although I am thinking we may not see a serious correction until January, so moving to the G fund may be premature as the upside in the stock market is only now confirming a change of trend for many traders. I'm neutral after yesterday's gains and waiting to see what the market does today. Especially volume wise. Light volume to the downside should be seen as a potential bullish continuation of the current uptrend.

The main concern I have is the overbought condition in bonds. If it unwinds to any degree I would expect that cash to move to the stock market. There's not really anywhere else for it to go. So moving to cash the last 2 weeks of December does have some risk if bonds unwind and we're out of trades.

I don't think that will happen just yet though.

 

[Corepuncher]

I can refi TODAY for 4.875...no pts. 30 yr fixed. I"m thinking about pulling the trigger.

Seems the market is "self fulfilling" the 4.5% prophecy...but the thing is...if everyone waits it could backfire...because if bonds blow up and the bubble pops...rates will skyrocket. Would the FED buy ENOUGH bonds to get rates back down? Who knows. I"m thinking I should not get too greedy. I would go from 5.75 to 4.875...the closing costs would be made up in the first year. My monthly payment would also go down 100 bucks, and pay 2000 less interest per year! Sure I'd like 4.5 but it might not happen. Anyone have an opinion on this? Should I wait?

 

[poolman]

I can refi TODAY for 4.875...no pts. 30 yr fixed. I"m thinking about pulling the trigger.

Seems the market is "self fulfilling" the 4.5% prophecy...but the thing is...if everyone waits it could backfire...because if bonds blow up and the bubble pops...rates will skyrocket. Would the FED buy ENOUGH bonds to get rates back down? Who knows. I"m thinking I should not get too greedy. I would go from 5.75 to 4.875...the closing costs would be made up in the first year. My monthly payment would also go down 100 bucks, and pay 2000 less interest per year! Sure I'd like 4.5 but it might not happen. Anyone have an opinion on this? Should I wait?

I would do it. That is an awesome rate. Why take chances on your mortgage. I have never seen a rate that low.

If it where me I would go for a 15 year fixed.

 

[Corepuncher]

I would do it. That is an awesome rate. Why take chances on your mortgage. I have never seen a rate that low.

If it where me I would go for a 15 year fixed.

Actually, shorter term loans such as 15 yr and arms are NOT much different! Guess it all goes toward the same rate when they get low enough?

 

[poolman]

Actually, shorter term loans such as 15 yr and arms are NOT much different! Guess it all goes toward the same rate when they get low enough?

Yea, I was wondering about that. I was thinking for a 15 year fixed you might get 1/8 less down to 4 3/4.

Still an awesome rate.

 

[Braveheart]

I can refi TODAY for 4.875...no pts. 30 yr fixed. I"m thinking about pulling the trigger.

Seems the market is "self fulfilling" the 4.5% prophecy...but the thing is...if everyone waits it could backfire...because if bonds blow up and the bubble pops...rates will skyrocket. Would the FED buy ENOUGH bonds to get rates back down? Who knows. I"m thinking I should not get too greedy. I would go from 5.75 to 4.875...the closing costs would be made up in the first year. My monthly payment would also go down 100 bucks, and pay 2000 less interest per year! Sure I'd like 4.5 but it might not happen. Anyone have an opinion on this? Should I wait?

I would not wait because everything changes in a split second. Remember the Banks want to make $$$$$$$$ and the low rates could be for a short period as in less than 30 days. Could see 4.75% but I would not wait around. Others may wait for that 4.5% and get it but it is a gamble and they wake up to find rates spike to 5.25% and lose. (You have to know when to walk away and know when to run) Best of Luck !!!