Corepuncher's Account Talk

[JTH]

With the strength S has been showing the last few weeks, this might be a good buying opportunity. I'm sitting on the side-lines today, I was too busy this morning to watch the markets.

Your right it's probably a good call to snag up some S...

 

[airlift]

I increased my position in the S fund. Hope the rally takes off!

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 8/05/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +4.18%
Today: -0.96%
Current Allocation: 45C 55S
Tracker Rank: 7
Tentative Next Move: Sell near Bollinger band upper 1280s-1290. Out of IFT's for the month...will sell with caution.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Latest experimental analog output.

NOTE: I am going to add another method based solely on 20,50,100 and 200 day moving average crossovers.

 

[JTH]

Corepuncher I have no idea how tomorrow will play out, any guess?

I'm still hoping to buy in in the low 1230s at a minimum.

 

[Corepuncher]

Corepuncher I have no idea how tomorrow will play out, any guess?

I'm still hoping to buy in in the low 1230s at a minimum.

I see you joined the tracker. 0% YTD...you are already blowing away the competition! :laugh:

I can venture a guess for tomorrow, I suppose. We will stay above 1220, and below 1290.

I don't know...I sorta feel the "news" has already been sold on the FED. Volume has been drying up over the last 3 down days. So I feel the direction will be up. I think August 5 and 6 may be a good time for a rally, possibly 2 day kicked off by the FED. Could be a downer on the 7th with initial jobless claims (predicted over 400K).

I feel very confident that we will soon test 1285-1290 again. Since my last buy point averages 1255...I would likely sell some at that time. If we close below 1234, it may be a retest of the lows. We are currently trading in a 1240-1280 range. Need to break.

 

[JTH]

Looks like my direction-finder needs some new batteries. :toung:

 

[Corepuncher]

AALLLLLLLLLLLLL ABOAAAAAAAAAAARD!

I'd like to see a mini "rally fade" late in the day, followed by a big rocket shot up. My gut tells me we close in the 1280s (unless the FED screws things up, but I doubt).

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 8/05/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +6.60%
Today: +2.42%
Current Allocation: 45C 55S
Tracker Rank: 3
Tentative Next Move: See if we can break 1291 on a close.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[nasa1974]

CP, Some nice money made today. WOW!

 

[Guest2]

CP, could you spare a buck to someone who was only 50% in yesterday. :laugh:

 

[Corepuncher]

CP, could you spare a buck to someone who was only 50% in yesterday. :laugh:

CP, Some nice money made today. WOW!

Yeah, I enjoyed it! Booyah!

Tomorrow should be a test of 1291. Lets watch and see.

Here shorty shorties! Time to pay up!

 

[Guest2]

Here shorty shorties! Time to pay up!

Hands off my Shorty Shorts ! Uhhhh, the wife bought them for me ! :toung:

 

[airlift]

CP,
Are you still targeting an exit perhaps when we touch the upper Bollinger band or the 50 DMA?
That is, unless a false break-out like the possibility discussed by Tom occurs?

 

[Corepuncher]

CP,
Are you still targeting an exit perhaps when we touch the upper Bollinger band or the 50 DMA?
That is, unless a false break-out like the possibility discussed by Tom occurs?

I'll be watching for a break of 1292 and how we behave when we hit it. I'd like to sell some soon, but I'll wait for a certain close > 1290-1300.

Forgot to post latest analog search...the trend in the indicators last few days has been to decrease the downside with time.

 

[Corepuncher]

Alright...I almost decided to sell some stock today. After all, we are in a bear market. I was looking at the charts trying to find a reason to sell. Instead, I found a reason to hold and sell later.

If you look at the last 20 days in the chart below, you can see that in the next 3 days, the 20 SMA line (yellow) is, by default, going to rise higher because we are about to drop 3 down candles (left side). The upper Bollinger band is going to move higher in concert, since it is +2 STD from the SMA.

Therefore, the RISING 20 SMA will lend SUPPORT (a rising floorboard) for this market as it bounces around between the upper Bollinger band and the 20 SMA. If we hold near 1280, the 20 SMA will rise to 1265 by Friday, and the upper B Band will be 1300. So, maybe we can get that ceiling to that psychological level of 1300.

Another consideration is oil dropping, and also the initial jobless claims tomorrow. The estimate is for 420K. That is a rather high bar, if you ask me, and there is a good chance it could be quite a bit lower especially after last weeks huge number.

Couple that with the fact we will likely hold almost all of yesterdays rally gains today, and I can see reasons why either Thu or Fri will be better to sell. Still, to avert risk, you may want to lock in a small gain COB today, like 10-20%. I just may (I don't want to get slaughtered!).

Then again, as I type, we are rallying on dropping oil. What are the chances oil will also be down tomorrow if it goes down hard today? The B bands and 20 SMA will rise in the next couple days, but then, it will be fairly sideways for quite a while...possibly making us rangebound 1260-1300. The real confusion is where will the market be in 3+ weeks from now, I'm out of IFTs to buy! Hmm, bonds are down today, that is good for stocks. The AGG is near 99 flat...an important support level. If it breaks, it may take a big leg down, and that money can go into stocks. Lets get one more big short squeeze, a break of 1292, test of 1300...and I'll be happy and sell.

 

[luv2read]

Are you reading my mind?

 

[Guest2]

Lets get one more big short squeeze, a break of 1292, test of 1300...and I'll be happy and sell.

I'm gonna follow this leader ! 1290-1300 test means bail,,,,bail,,,bail !
What I haven't decided is; Do I pull out 100%,75%,50%,25% or 10% ?
I'll know when it happens I guess. Maybe as early as tomarrow !

 

[Corepuncher]

I'm gonna follow this leader ! 1290-1300 test means bail,,,,bail,,,bail !
What I haven't decided is; Do I pull out 100%,75%,50%,25% or 10% ?
I'll know when it happens I guess. Maybe as early as tomarrow !

Since I can't buy back until September, for me, I feel the best course of action is to only sell 50% at most, UNLESS we crash to the bottom Bollinger band, which is around 1220.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 8/06/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +7.27%
Today: +0.67%
Current Allocation: 45C 55S
Tracker Rank: 3
Tentative Next Move: Sell > 1300
----------------------------------------------------------------------