Corepuncher's Account Talk

[ATCJeff]

Birch got me fired up on Fabijos post! Rubbish!

Now, for some more predictions (more than just "the market will eventually go up")....

Big jobs report data as well as ISM will likely confirm or deny the rally. We should see which way the herd is leaning anyhow. This 1260's level on the S&P seems to be a strong technical level...for both up and down. For up, we really need to penetrate the 1280s. For down, watch for a break of 1240.

FOMC meeting is on Tuesday next week. Perhaps volume will be mediocre at best leading up to Tuesday. If data is worse than expected on Friday, probably a drift lower. Monday we have some crap too but it's nothing compared to the FED meeting.

"BEN IN A BOX"...isn't that what they say?? If he does not raise rates, I bet oil goes up, the dollar goes down. If he raises rates, well hell, that is just tightening the vice on consumer credit and spending.

I'm not going to buy unless we either 1) Close decisively above 1290 or 2) hit 1240 and below. Really, I'm thinking more below (1200 for a retest of lows).

My buy target is 1214-1225. If we drop below 1214 I'll stay on the sidelines. If we bounce off the 1214ish level, I'm in for a 5-7% ride and that's all!

Jeff

 

[Davehop21]

Ok, I am ready to get my feet wet. I want to make my first IFT. What is the board sentiment?? Right now I am 100% G fund but want to move 50% somewhere. Does anyone have a solid suggestion for entry and exit points??

Thanks from North Carolina, Dave (Biggest Tarheel fan)

 

[Guest2]

Ok, I am ready to get my feet wet. I want to make my first IFT. What is the board sentiment?? Right now I am 100% G fund but want to move 50% somewhere. Does anyone have a solid suggestion for entry and exit points??

Thanks from North Carolina, Dave (Biggest Tarheel fan)

Maybe I'll throw my two cents in with this question. If I haven't welcomed
you before, welcome to the community. There's a vast wealth of knowledge
that can be gained by reading the memberships account threads. But,
your gonna find a great many opinions concerning your question. Asking
someone to give you a solid suggestion, might place them in a position
where they don't want to be. Specifically, when to go in and when to
come out. I could tell you to go into the (F) Fund, but if the fund takes a
crap, I'd feel responsible for guiding you into a loss. The best way to
get your answer is to do some homework (read the threads), find out
what others intend to do with their IFT's. Watch the Market closely
for Economic Reports, Fed Rate Decisions and Earnings Reports. Once
you've gotten into the flow and made a informed decision on your own,
there's no harm in asking anyone here at TSPtalk what they think about
your opinions and thoughts behind your move. We want to help you
make money, I hope everyone wants to help me make money too. But
the MB as a whole won't carry a group sentiment. There's a Poll that
is set up to track the Sentiment of TSPtalk members. Thats just one
of many tools at your disposal. Anyway, I hope you don't take this as
a slam or insult. I read your question and asked myself, how long until
retirement, how old are you, what kind of risk tolerence do you have?
Then I said to myself, how can anyone truly tell you where to put your
hard earned money. That my friend, should fall upon you. We'll help.

 

[Davehop21]

Thank you so much for some honest feedback. I mainly was just trying to get some gut reaction as to where someone may think we are going or where the best opportunities may be. I would always do my own homework before a decision and of course no one would ever be blamed for their insight. Thanks again for your thoughtful post.

Dave

 

[Guest2]

Thank you so much for some honest feedback. I mainly was just trying to get some gut reaction as to where someone may think we are going or where the best opportunities may be. I would always do my own homework before a decision and of course no one would ever be blamed for their insight. Thanks again for your thoughtful post.

Dave

Thanks for not taking it the wrong way. Currently, I'm trying to do the
same thing as you are. If the market goes down before the 12:00 noon
deadline, I'm thinking of going in myself. Not the (I) Fund though, not
yet anyway. Todays unemployment report amongst others are coming
out at 8:30am and 10:00am today. If the market goes up because of
them, I might wait longer before going in. But if the news is worse then
expected, I might put a portion in. Here's a link for ya;

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

 

[Corepuncher]

My first price objective of 1255 or the 20 day SMA has been reached, at least as of right now. Quite a sharp downturn there around 1005 EDT, maybe an intitutional dump?

The NASDAQ is leading the way in a negative sense today...opposite of what it had been trying to do. RUT is right behind. Almost a 5-1 ratio of DOWN/UP volume on the NASDAQ. I doubt it will turn around by close.

Whatever happens today, I expect Monday to be relatively flat ahead of the FED on Tue.

Since I sold at 1284, I will likely buy some today. Then, if the FED causes the market to tank on Tue, I will buy more at a lower price. If the FED causes the market to go up, hmmm, I might "sit tight" at 50% stocks or so, and perhaps buy more if WED pulls back.

UPDATE 946 CDT: I just cannot decide whether to buy more C or S. S has been performing a bit better, but C is down 2% from my last sell point, and S is only down 1.4%...hmmm....

 

[Corepuncher]

I think we'll dance around the 20 day moving average for a while. I don't see much downside in the near term, not even sure we'll test the lows for quite a while. On the upside, we can probably hit the 50 day SMA, which is about 1310 on the S&P. FED could be a catalyst.

The market wants to rally, that much is clear. Super bad news on financials lately with earnings, and yet the market is staying put. Much of the fear is gone, IMO. However, earnings estimates are STILL too high, oil is still high, credit is tight. If we have an end of summer rally, I'm gonna try to sell into it. I bet the next big leg down will be after this next rally FAILS to break the highs of the May rally. Oh, that will be just soooooo sad and unforseen!!! :toung:

 

[Birchtree]

Howdy. Thanks for your comments on Fabijo's thread. You may not realize it being so new that you have many predecessors with similar sentiments, some kind of unverifiable system, acrimonious comments and condescending attitudes and all to the last one have faded into oblivion. I certainly hope you can hang tougher with us. You should also realize that I do not work for Waste Management. You definition of my comments was fatuous on your part. You have no idea what my gains were in 2007, 2006 or 2005, but I will tell you they were greater than 8% and the year isn't over yet. Friends do let friends buy and hold. It's just another strategy and I'm content with my tracker position now that I've caught up to Griffin. I'm sure we are destined to bump again - it was fun seeing you fired up. Take care and keep doing well - seriously. There is room for all types of strategies.

 

[Corepuncher]

You should also realize that I do not work for Waste Management. You definition of my comments was fatuous on your part.

What do you call "Punchette"? Non-fatuous? I figured after the assault you took from Sugarandspice, anything I would say would pale in comparison...and I wasn't even directly ATTACKING YOU! :laugh:

You have no idea what my gains were in 2007, 2006 or 2005, but I will tell you they were greater than 8% and the year isn't over yet.

No idea? Your gains in the TSP from 2005-2007 was some combination of C, S, and I returns.

Friends do let friends buy and hold.

The back of my T-Shirt that says otherwise, and I got it by not buying and holding.

I'm sure we are destined to bump again - it was fun seeing you fired up. Take care and keep doing well - seriously. There is room for all types of strategies..<snip> some kind of unverifiable system

All I do is call 'em as I see 'em. That is what this board is all about, sharing ideas. As for my "unverifiable system", it is easy to verify it if you want. I'm sure I will at some point, but right now I've said multiple times it is EXPERIMENTAL. All it does is find past matches based on a few parameters. It's information...take it for what it's worth.

There are only a few people who fully divulge what they are thinking and doing all the time. I could be greedy and try to "beat" everyone (that WOULD be nice...), but I'd rather share information in the hope that everyone can share in my success, whenever it occurs.

I like to get fired up. I like to try to win at things that very few can win at. I like to talk loudly to inspire competition. Competition = better results. Bring it on and everyone should know that I like everyone on here...nothing is ever personal.

 

[Birchtree]

Well because you are so magnanimous perhaps I can share in your success too. I switched from the S fund in 2/04 to the C fund and have maintained that stance ever since except for two round trip forays into the I fund in '07. I'm still trying to get even on the last foray into the I fund - but I use the technique of DCAing so progress will come. Thanks for leaving the light on. Stop by anytime. Will you agree that Punchette is a better choice than Punch and Judy?

 

[Corepuncher]

Will you agree that Punchette is a better choice than Punch and Judy?

Look at my picture...a feminine name just doesn't go...

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 8/01/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +5.14%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 30G 40C 30S
Tracker Rank: 8
Tentative Next Move: Buy more C below the 20 SMA if it drops early next week ahead of FED meeting. Otherwise, next sell target is > 1300.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Updated Pattern Search:

 

[Buster]

Look at my picture...a feminine name just doesn't go...

Your AVATAR looks a little like Eddie Munster going through puberty:laugh:

 

[alevin]

Your AVATAR looks a little like Eddie Munster going through puberty:laugh:

LOL, oh Buster. Wish I'd thought of that one. It's just too much of a cliche to think of him as "Li'l Devil". :nuts: Corp, we love you. Keep doin' what you're doin'.

 

[Corepuncher]

Part II

 

[Corepuncher]

Part I (and please pardon the spelling errors...no spell check in image edit)

 

[Corepuncher]

Started typing but then wanted to cancel, don't see how to cancel it his so here is a message. Enjoy.

 

[airlift]

Updated Tracker COB 8/01/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +5.14%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 30G 40C 30S
Tracker Rank: 8
Tentative Next Move: Buy more C below the 20 SMA if it drops early next week ahead of FED meeting. Otherwise, next sell target is > 1300.

CP,

Frankly, I still have not had the time to study and to understand your graphs, but I commend your honest attempt to time the market. I do believe that your decision to allocate 30G, 40C, 30S is quite sound because it provides you with enormous flexibility. If the benchmark SPX goes lower, you can buy it lower by keeping a 30% reserve in the G fund. But if the stock funds take off without looking back, you can allocate a higher percentage to either the C or the S fund.

I have noticed that the S fund seems to do better than the C fund when the rally has matured a bit. Perhaps this is due in part to hot speculative money and/or the idea that smaller to medium companies are not being smacked as hard by the mortgage crisis as larger financial institutions. Also, smaller companies are also helped if interest rates don't rise.

I don't believe the FED will raise rates yet, until it is clear that the economic recovery is on firmer ground. Although less than expected, non-farm payrolls were lower, and the unemployment rate rose to 5.7% versus a previous 5.5%. Only my opinion. Keep up the good work and best wishes!

 

[Corepuncher]

Wow, the S fund is down over 11 bucks so far this morning, or nearly 2%. This may be a good time to get some S...if for no other reason, a possible bounce to sell.

Oil is down today. FED speaks tomorrow. I think they'll try to spin the recent drop in oil to account for lowering inflation in the future and therefore no rate hikes for now. The rates will stay steady.

If we go up or sideways for the rest of the week, we will be in position for the 20 SMA to start moving UP, along with the upper Bollinger band. There is a chance the 20 SMA will cross the 50...as long as we go sideways or up. The test will be that 1280-1290 level...AGAIN! If we break it, it will confirm a little double bottom, but if we do not...we might retest lows.

OIL IS CRASHING! 120...C fund may be up by close...S is way depressed...going overweight in S for a bounce.

 

[Corepuncher]

55s 45c