Corepuncher's Account Talk

[luv2read]

This seems to agree with it.

The market's next short-term pattern is that the next 'monthly strength period' is due to begin on Wednesday of nect week and to run through August 6.

http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm4.html

 

[Corepuncher]

Latest Analog Matches - using COB data from 7/24/08

Mid May 2002 (bear market, loose match) - After a 5% bear rally in Mid May, the market was about to embark on a 28% fall over the next 2 months.

Mid July 2001 (bear market, loose match) - Traded in a 5% range for the next month before falling off a cliff 1.5 months later (a 20% fall).

Late April 1994 - (bull market, strong match) - Coming out of a corrrection, bull continues.

September-1990 (minimal bear, VERY STRONG MATCH) - After a 20% downturn, the market trades in a 6% range for 2 months before unleashing the bull!

Feb 1984 - (bull market, strong match). Stayed in a 3% trading range for almost 3 months.

EDIT:
Forgot June 1982 - (Bear Market, Strong Match). 1 more push down in about 2 months then a rocket shot upward for a bull market.

 

[luv2read]

It looks like:

1988 Presidential election (Reagans 2nd term) + 2 years = 1990 bull market

1992 Presidential election (Clinton's 1st term) + 2 years = 1994 bull

I discount 2001-2002, that's 9/11 fallout.

bull market started in 2/84 was a result of tax-raising/deficit cutting.

This is an election year, so if this IS a pattern, we might have to wait 2 years for a full recovery/running bull. This is in line with the 18 month estimate for housing market recovery and full disclosure of all the bad paper.

 

[Corepuncher]

This seems to agree with it.

Well it needs to hold off until August 1st!

 

[Steadygain]

You've got some pretty good stuff Corepuncher.

Thanks

 

[Corepuncher]

Wow Bro, That Chart Is Beyond My Comprehensive Abilities.
Does It Come With Instructions, I've been meaning to tell you
that since I downloaded it.

Nutshell version:

The program is trying to find historical matches based on about 8 different stock market tech analysis calculations.

The graphics I attach are two parts...the top part and bottom part are essentially the same, so lets just focus on the top half part.

Left side (orange) = parameter list (subject to change). Moving to the right...The current values in yellow. Then, a low and high range for each in which to search. I am using +/- 1 Standard deviation for each parameter.

Then, I"m going back (somewhat arbitrarily) to 1980...so 28 years of data.

I am attempting to quantify the probability of UP or DOWN markets A) 1-5 days out from NOW, B) 6-10 days out and C) 11-20 days out.

Moving down to the pink and green line...left to right:
First 4 columns=1-5 day mean forecast...first the # of up matches, then the # down matches (and their respective percentage of all matches just below). Then, upsum1 is the sum of the DAILY MEAN RETURN FOR the following 5 days out from the match. Same for downsum1. Then, I use weighting of UP and DOWN (based on # of up and down days) to determine the forecast avg daily (and weekly = daily*5) return for the next 5 days from the latest closing price in the present.

Take the previous paragraph and it's the same for days 6-10 (upwk2 and downwk2), and also upwk4 (but the 4 really means weeks 3 AND 4).

Final output is on the right side. If you have more than a 0.25% move forecast in either direction, I say BUY or SELL. BUY if the move is expected to be UP, SELL if the move is expected to be down.

Now take ALL that which I just explained, and apply it to the (orange background) similar table at the bottom. Same thing, EXCEPT the search parameters are smaller...(usually 0.50 or 0.75 STDEV), so it will return less matches. More relevant matches? Who knows. It's all experimental.

I tend to pay more attention if there is both A) A large majority of either up or down days, and B) A big up or down week percentage, like > 1%.

TABLE is from COB THU 7/24/08. Will post a new one soon.

 

[Birchtree]

Since 1900, the Dow has undergone a major correction 26 times or one major correction every 4.2 years.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 7/24/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +4.05%
Today: 0.31%
Current Allocation: 25S 25C 50G
Tracker Rank: 8
Tentative Next Move: 50/50 near 1280. Sell much above, buy much below.
----------------------------------------------------------------------


Updated COB 7/25/08

 

[Corepuncher]

A friend of mine whipped up this page recently.

http://www.tspcalc.com/

The main graphics are kinda nice, comparing the return of all TSP funds and inflation (which you need to beat!).

Any comments/suggestions, I will pass them along to him.

 

[Guest2]

CP, Thanks for the info and hard work. Its becoming clearer to me now.

 

[Corepuncher]

Near session lows as of 1145 CDT. Also near the key 1240-1245 level. I would certainly like to see a good bounce off of those levels to maintain the rally. Last January we had a situation where we gave all of the bounce rally back, only to retest the rally high (but failed). So, I have hopes of at least testing 1290 again.

For now, somewhat content at 50/50. If it goes to my target > 1280 to 1320, I will certainly sell. If it tanks to new lows, I guess I'll buy at some point.

USO spiked above 100, but just as quickly, gave it all back and now is at 99.6. Bearish for oil, I think. Lets have another oil selloff after inventory report WED.

At some point, I need to stop gambling. I know the background pattern is bad for stocks...and the 50 MA is well below the 200. Using the last 20 years as an example, just using that crossover has done you good. Using the 100 and 200 SMA crossovers as signals would have been even better (no fake out in 98).

My guess is that USO/oil prices will close at the lows of the day. Stocks may rebound, but only a bit.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 7/28/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +3.25%
Today: -0.80%
Current Allocation: 25S 25C 50G
Tracker Rank: 7 LOL...moving up :cheesy:
Tentative Next Move: I'll have to buy Friday (or thereafter) if we move much lower...would be S and C. Sell target 1280-1320.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Anyway, again, it's all experimental and just fun to play with for now. But messing around with it I get the impression that this week stocks may be UP, while next week, they may be DOWN. Both of the methods are in fact giving a STRONG SELL next week. And as always...past performance does not guarantee future results! So, take that with a grain of salt! :toung:

Guess the "system" nailed this one. Helped me to decide to sell 50% on 7/23 (at the top). I would have sold more but I was out of transactions to buy back until August 1st.

 

[JTH]

Dude, I'd stab people to get Excel skills like that. :nuts:

Much props...

 

[Corepuncher]

Latest experimental output for COB Today:

The highest quality (lower STDEV) matches (bottom chart) I am getting are from:

September 13-20 and October 9, 1990
Feb 1-4 1982 and June 24-July 2 1982

There is good agreement that days 1-5 will average down, 6-10 up, and 11-20 down. However, the magnitude of the "down" forecast is less than a .25% change, thus, I put "NO ACTION". This day 1-5 negative number has been becoming less each day, suggesting that the "bottom" may come and perhaps turn around in the next 5 trading days. The bottom chart, with less matches but tighter matching criteria, has a stronger down signal days 1-5 and a stronger up days 6-10. Note the 12 to 2 down vs up week ratio...impressive! Then, for days 11-20, both upper and lower charts suggest more downside.

This all aligns fairly well with what I am wanting to do...that is, buy at a low (maybe as early as friday August 1st...IFT finally allowed), or at lower prices possibly early next week. Then, sell a bounce. Sell target > 1280, buy target < 1220, S and C.

 

[Corepuncher]

&@$%!!^&^&@ TSP BOARD! I sold at the top of the rally at 1282 but there was no way to buy back again lower

At least we have this guy:

 

[nnuut]

&@$%!!^&^&@ TSP BOARD! I sold at the top of the rally at 1282 but there was no way to buy back again lower

At least we have this guy:

Well join the crew, in the hold. Row, Row, Row!!:notrust:

 

[ATCJeff]

&@$%!!^&^&@ TSP BOARD! I sold at the top of the rally at 1282 but there was no way to buy back again lower

At least we have this guy:

I'm in the same boat. Yesterday I would have moved from the F into the C/S instead of the G. Oh, well it's only 2.5%.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 7/29/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +4.39%
Today: +1.14%
Current Allocation: 25S 25C 50G
Tracker Rank: 8
Tentative Next Move: If we breach 1291, sell just before 50 sma (near 1317).
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Crunch time. Good chance the market will close up today...the dollar is up...and it has held gains so far. I still don't like how when oil sneezes the whole market moves.

ADP report, which SUCKS usually...showed a big increase relative to last month. That is fine and dandy...and may be a good reason to unload today. It has set the bar quite high for the FED numbers on Friday. Also, who wants to be ahead of those numbers? GDP also come out tomorrow...but also initial claims and CHI PMI. GDP is expected to be quite high..up to 2.8%?? Stimulus enhanced...sell the news baby!

My "system" shows a sell. We are also getting close to the upper edge of the bollinger band. I don't think it's time yet to break through this upper band...not enough time yet. We could easily move back down to the 20 SMA...which in the upper 1250s. Actually, who thinks we WONT drop back down to the 20 SMA in the next week?? Seems like a stretch to say we won't. NASDAQ hitting upper Bollinger band as we speak today!

S seems a bit depressed today...maybe I'll sell it. Or maybe I'll sell all of my 50% stock holdings...hoping for a lower buy in point possibly Friday (AUG 1st).

Thinking...