Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

I knew American Express would SUCK! I should have sold 25%. Instead, because of my inability to buy back until August, I only sold 10% C.


In light of the weakening economy, we are no longer tracking to our prior forecast of 4-6% earnings per share growth," AmEx's CEO Kenneth Chenault said in a statement. "That outlook was based on business and economic conditions in line with, or moderately worse than, January 2008. The environment has weakened significantly since then, particularly during the month of June."

Ouch. I think that statement is telling...foreboding even.

Apple, San Disk, Texas Instraments...TECH is going down hard tomorrow, it would appear. The market better hope for an unexpectedly good report from Wachovia tomorow, or the financials will too. At least there will be lots of earnings to chew on...which might prevent a REALLY ugly day...it should be tempered and maybe there will be some good reports.

I have lowered my expectations for the near term.


Updated Tracker COB 7/21/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +3.55 %
Today: 0.41%
Current Allocation: 45S 45C 10G
Tracker Rank: 10
Tentative Next Move: Start selling > S&P 1270...All out by S&P 1300
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[JTH]

Apple, San Disk, Texas Instraments...

When I read your previous comment about American Express I was thinking you had pegged it wrong based on my opinion us Americans were leaning hard on our credit cards due to increasing gas and food prices.

WTF? I must have missed something? Oh well, good call.

Tommorrow should be interesting and Apple's fall might turn out to be a bad omen. At this point I'll be happy if 1255ish holds and satisfied at 1245ish.

Good luck everyone...

 

[Corepuncher]

When I read your previous comment about American Express I was thinking you had pegged it wrong based on my opinion us Americans were leaning hard on our credit cards due to increasing gas and food prices.

WTF? I must have missed something? Oh well, good call.

Tommorrow should be interesting and Apple's fall might turn out to be a bad omen. At this point I'll be happy if 1255ish holds and satisfied at 1245ish.

Good luck everyone...

My guess is that a larger % of people are defaulting on their payments, and AMEX is eating it.

 

[Corepuncher]

I assume there are people that have been waiting for another "pullback" since our mini-rally. Will be interesting to see if we bounce back today or fall off a cliff. I doubt the cliff will happen...yet. Probably make another run up before going down. A close > 1230 in my mind is fine. May see oil sell off today which would help.

 

[Guest2]

I assume there are people that have been waiting for another "pullback" since our mini-rally. Will be interesting to see if we bounce back today or fall off a cliff. I doubt the cliff will happen...yet. Probably make another run up before going down. A close > 1230 in my mind is fine. May see oil sell off today which would help.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm4/stormtrack_large.html?from=hp_news :blink:

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=6584&from=hp_main_tab2 :blink:

 

[Corepuncher]

I assume there are people that have been waiting for another "pullback" since our mini-rally. Will be interesting to see if we bounce back today or fall off a cliff. I doubt the cliff will happen...yet. Probably make another run up before going down. May see oil sell off today which would help.

...so let it be done!

As you can see, this storm will not affect much of anything, plus, it is not gonna be that strong. All this has been known for several days now.

 

[Corepuncher]

Earnings will be very heavy for Wed and Thur, then on Friday they are light. With so much excitement with the rally, and so many companies earnings reports to go over, the reason we have been bearish may get lost in the shuffle. If the market keeps going up Wed and/or Thur, this may be the perfect time to sell a good portion. The upper Bollinger band will be somewhere around 1300 on the S&P in 2 days or so...extrapolating current trends. Unless you are in a wickedly strong bull market you tend not to get penetrations of these bands on the upside. Combine this with the fact that Friday may be quiet (and a good time to catch your breath and probably sell)...I will likely sell some more Wed and Thur if we are up. Staying with my C and S...staying AWAY from I and F.


Updated Tracker COB 7/22/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +4.80%
Today: 1.25%
Current Allocation: 45S 45C 10G
Tracker Rank: 8
Tentative Next Move: Start selling > S&P 1270...All out by S&P 1300
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[JTH]

I have to admit, I wasn't expecting such a positive push today. I hope the dumb money continues to roll in for the rest of the week. As for today, I can only guess the oil long's took profits and pushed the market up. That combined with some of tech's dip buyers proved to be an impressive day.

I still have 25% C left from when I bought in at the bottom. I've hit my price objective much earlier then I expected. Regardless I should pull out soon, call it a month with 1.34% profit, and accept the beating I took in June and early July.

I like your input Corepuncher, keep it up!

 

[Show-me]

My guess is that a larger % of people are defaulting on their payments, and AMEX is eating it.

Ah yes, the next bubble to burst. High energy and food, no jobby no credit card paymenty.

 

[Corepuncher]

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/525-RED-ALERT-RAPE-BY-CONGRESS-IMMINENT.html

This guy is seriously worried about this. From what I read, there may be a bond market sell-off...and sky-rocketing interest rates.

 

[Steadygain]

From what I read, there may be a bond market sell-off...and sky-rocketing interest rates.

That is unavoidable in the event it appears "the worst is over". When volume picks up - and a real bull market appears for certain - bonds will fall and stocks will soar.

It's the 5th law of Thermal Dynamics: When F goes down C/S/I go up

 

[Corepuncher]

Well, my initial price target has been achieved...now can I overcome this great feeling and sell? Surely there will be a few down days soon...but will it come and go BEFORE the 1st of August? STUPID TSP!

10 yr bond yields are rocketing up. This will hurt rates...depress home prices even further and keep us in this credit mess...and...I assume a continued decline in housing would raise the chance that the GOVNT would have to cough up a billions for Fannie/Freddie.

Everyone keeps guiding down for the end of the year. Oil is falling...yeah that's nice...but it has nothing to do with housing or credit. Watch earnings next quarter in October be disappointing.

I gotta take some more off the table. if oil rebounds at any point, we could see the hammer come down on stocks once again. Also, home sales and initial claims tomorrow. I bet claims will be up > 370 again, since we've been donwn lately.

Not sure how much I'm gonna move into G.

 

[Corepuncher]

Selling 40% of my stocks.

50G 25C 25S

 

[FogSailing]

CP, I'm still sitting in my B&H allocation of 50G, 25C and 25S. Thought of moving to I but it's probably too late..I think this rally will slow, but it might last through the week..I hope so for all our sakes..some positive action would be great..Haven't had a good run since April and I missed out on that one. GL buddy.

FS

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 7/23/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +5.01%
Today: 0.21%
Current Allocation: 25S 25C 50G
Tracker Rank: 9
Tentative Next Move: Continue selling as we go up
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Also, home sales and initial claims tomorrow. I bet claims will be up > 370 again, since we've been down lately.

Initial claims up to 406K and prior revised from 366K to 372K.

Existing home sales much less than expected, dropping over 100K last month.

 

[Corepuncher]

Thanks to the "new rules", I could not buy today after selling yesterday. sigh....

And THAT is why I only took out 50%...because I'm being screwed by the TSP!

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 7/24/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +3.74%
Today: -1.27%
Current Allocation: 25S 25C 50G
Tracker Rank: 7
Tentative Next Move: 50/50 near 1280. Sell much above, buy much below.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Guidance below is experimental, use with caution:

 

[Guest2]

Updated Tracker COB 7/24/08

Wow Bro, That Chart Is Beyond My Comprehensive Abilities.
Does It Come With Instructions, I've been meaning to tell you
that since I downloaded it.

 

[XL-entLady]

Thanks for the chart information, Corepuncher! Looks like maybe that next rally up will wait for those of us who are out of IFTs after all. My appreciation for sharing your research!

Lady