Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Is the bottom in? Maybe not longer term but short term I bet it is. Even if the people "in the know" understand that the financials are still screwed......they will milk this rally for all its worth. Why wouldn't you? VIX hit over 30, we bounced off 1200 S&P and 11000 DOW, had a huge volume day/reversal (partial) followed by a big candle up. Those things are enough, even if it is an illusion, to get people back in and covering shorts. The question is when we plunge again. Because if we have another failed rally (like last Mar-May rally...and we stop short of those highs), it will be complete devastation IMO.

My prelim. target remains S&P 1320 to start selling.

 

[nsurf9]

I just hope I can lock in something by the end of the month.

 

[Birchtree]

I would like to see the consensus believe this is only a rally in a bear market - because I believe othewise. I'll be buying all I can just incase it's the real deal - been here many times in the past. Sometimes I get toasted and sometimes I get rewarded - I'm taking the risk for a huge rally back to SPX 1437.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 7/16/08

-------------------------- Back in Black -----------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +2.05 %
Today: +2.61%
Current Allocation: 55C 45S
Tracker Rank: 12
Tentative Next Move: Sell all or some at S&P 1320
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Braveheart]

Updated Tracker COB 7/16/08

-------------------------- Back in Black -----------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +2.05 %
Today: +2.61%
Current Allocation: 55C 45S
Tracker Rank: 12
Tentative Next Move: Sell all or some at S&P 1320
----------------------------------------------------------------------

F Fund does it close at 3:00 or 4:00 EST for the TSP

 

[robo]

I would like to see the consensus believe this is only a rally in a bear market - because I believe othewise. I'll be buying all I can just incase it's the real deal - been here many times in the past. Sometimes I get toasted and sometimes I get rewarded - I'm taking the risk for a huge rally back to SPX 1437.

Would you settle for 1421 on December 5, 2008 at 01:30 ET. However, we will get a new low before that date. ( S&P 1180's )

Some of these guys will charge you 1000 dollars for modeling information like I just gave you. That's right 1000 dollars, and I just gave it to you for free.... Book Mark This Forecast....

Oh, and this is only a rally in a Bear Market...


Take care Birchtree!

 

[Corepuncher]

Bad earnings except for IBM. This will be a test tomorrow. We should open very weak. If we do not close at the lows tomorrow I consider that a small victory. Also, if we give back < 50% of our mini rally...I will be content as well.

Where will the money go? Bonds suck. Commodities dropping. Crude just broke a major trendline today...should go to lower 120's IMO. Maybe IBM will inspire investing in large caps with global exposure. Google is still a great company...maybe a good buying opportunity here folks. So what if MSFT and GOOG miss a little bit...the economy is slowing, what do you expect?

Again, i'd like to see some hard selling Fri morning but then a rebound during the afternoon.

 

[nnuut]

Bad earnings except for IBM. This will be a test tomorrow. We should open very weak. If we do not close at the lows tomorrow I consider that a small victory. Also, if we give back < 50% of our mini rally...I will be content as well.

Where will the money go? Bonds suck. Commodities dropping. Crude just broke a major trendline today...should go to lower 120's IMO. Maybe IBM will inspire investing in large caps with global exposure. Google is still a great company...maybe a good buying opportunity here folks. So what if MSFT and GOOG miss a little bit...the economy is slowing, what do you expect?

Again, i'd like to see some hard selling Fri morning but then a rebound during the afternoon.

Now you're talkin' my language!!

 

[ATCJeff]

Bad earnings except for IBM. This will be a test tomorrow. We should open very weak. If we do not close at the lows tomorrow I consider that a small victory. Also, if we give back < 50% of our mini rally...I will be content as well.

Where will the money go? Bonds suck. Commodities dropping. Crude just broke a major trendline today...should go to lower 120's IMO. Maybe IBM will inspire investing in large caps with global exposure. Google is still a great company...maybe a good buying opportunity here folks. So what if MSFT and GOOG miss a little bit...the economy is slowing, what do you expect?

Again, i'd like to see some hard selling Fri morning but then a rebound during the afternoon.

I'll take a break even day tomorrow. Up almost 4% in the last two days!

 

[Corepuncher]

Asia appears to be up Friday, good news I suppose in light of crappy earnings this evening. I get the feeling we are gonna be in for some zigging and zagging next few days! Thank you TSP!

Citibank don't fail us now!


----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +3.18 %
Today: +1.13%
Current Allocation: 55C 45S
Tracker Rank: 9
Tentative Next Move: Sell all or some at S&P 1320
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Birchtree]

A 4.4% move is the biggest two-session percentage gain since October 15, 2002. I'm not ever getting off this train now that it's happening all over again. Money makes the world go round.

 

[Corepuncher]

Ya'll might need to rename the "Frog Pong" to the "That F'n Fund!"

 

[Corepuncher]

Here's my best "show me" imitation!

 

[Show-me]

Very nice!

 

[Corepuncher]

BTW...some hawkish talk out of some of the FED guys. Might be pressure to raise rates sooner rather than later. I assume that = stronger dollar = lower oil = higher stocks = not good for I fund = buy US Stocks (if you delve into stocks).


Updated Tracker COB 7/18/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +3.14 %
Today: -0.04%
Current Allocation: 55C 45S
Tracker Rank: 9
Tentative Next Move: Start selling > S&P 1280...All out by S&P 1320
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

For anyone whow has downloaded my spreadsheet, I periodically update it so you can re-download it whenever. This may be a better thing to do if you have a hard time updating it yourself.

I have it automatically import the closing prices from yahoo on the 2nd worksheet tab..but then you have to basically insert a blank row at row 31, then paste in the share values, then copy and paste all kinds of cells to make it updated. I"m sure there is an easier way, I just have not stumbled upon it yet! Again PM me if you want the download link.

Also, I'd like to call on everyone to give me a list of stock market parameters or things we can calculate that may be useful in forecasting market trends. I can code them up in the sheet.

Using tight constraints for matching, I came up with Sep. 1990 and Apri. 2001 as matches. Hmm...

 

[Corepuncher]

Spreadsheet Update

I spent a lot of time refining the spreadsheet once more. I highly recommend checking it out now that it is revamped.

I now have 2 different methods of matching. The first one uses 1 standard deviation of each parameter, the second is more stringent and uses 1/2 STD. Less matches but perhaps better. You view them both.

Again, please provide me with other parameters you would like to use in the matching scheme, or, edit it yourself.

A also uploaded another version called test.xls, which is laid out a bit differently.

 

[Corepuncher]

Spreadsheet people...I made some major changes to "test.xls". I kinda like it's format better...output on first page, and data on second page.

I added another matching parameter...the Bollinger band width as a percentage of the current price. This should give some measure of volatility, which might be an important parameter to match.

I'm not sure how bonds play into all this...except that they are a vital part of the economy. I used to match the 30 day 10 yr bond yield %R, but now I changed it to 6 month %R because when I look at the charts, it seems like there are some longer cycles in there?

Anyway, again, it's all experimental and just fun to play with for now. But messing around with it I get the impression that this week stocks may be UP, while next week, they may be DOWN. Both of the methods are in fact giving a STRONG SELL next week. And as always...past performance does not guarantee future results! So, take that with a grain of salt! :toung:

 

[Corepuncher]

I'm thinking of shifting 10%-25% into G fund COB today. I don't trust American Express (credit cards ugh!) after the bell, APPLE ( very high expectations), and Wachovia on Tuesday. My average buy price for the last 25% of C I bought is 1235...so I'll be locking in a profit of 2.5% on that portion if we close flat today. Sure I think we'll test 1270-1280 soon but why risk 100%? That is what is called gambling. :cheesy:

I can't buy back in until late next week (is it THUR or FRI we can actually start again??).

 

[luv2read]

First August IFT is anytime after 12 NOON 7/31 (Thursday) for posting COB Friday - so you just as soon wait until 11:30AM Friday for best results on that.