Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Braveheart]

Crunch time. Good chance the market will close up today...the dollar is up...and it has held gains so far. I still don't like how when oil sneezes the whole market moves.

ADP report, which SUCKS usually...showed a big increase relative to last month. That is fine and dandy...and may be a good reason to unload today. It has set the bar quite high for the FED numbers on Friday. Also, who wants to be ahead of those numbers? GDP also come out tomorrow...but also initial claims and CHI PMI.

My "system" shows a sell. We are also getting close to the upper edge of the bollinger band. I don't think it's time yet to break through this upper band...not enough time yet.

S seems a bit depressed today...maybe I'll sell it. Or maybe I'll sell all of my 50% stock holdings...hoping for a lower buy in point possibly Friday (AUG 1st).

Thinking...

Looking at the S Fund & C Fund charts today they look the same. There has to be a few holding that S Fund down right now. I think it will still close at $18.28 - $18.35 range as of now. Hoping today holds.

 

[Corepuncher]

OLD: 50G 25C 25S
NEW: 100G

Feel there will be a lower buy-in point, even if it is only a little down from here. Looking to buy in near the 20 SMA, or S&P 1255. I still feel we may test 1300-1320...but no without at least 1 more pullback. Too much data this week, and a lot of it will conflict I bet.

 

[Braveheart]

Looking at the S Fund & C Fund charts today they look the same. There has to be a few holding that S Fund down right now. I think it will still close at $18.28 - $18.35 range as of now. Hoping today holds.

Well how 1 hour can make a difference. I just hope the S Fund holds at $18.07 right now this could be a down day. I do not like this manic market.

 

[Corepuncher]

OK...Oil fell like 26 bucks from it's high. Now, just because oil is up 1 or 2 bucks the market rolls over???

NOT A GOOD SIGN!

To me, this is a "dumb money" signal...the smart money is not that reactionary. I would not be surprised to see the smart money move in this afternoon to reclaim the rally. My friend at MER thinks oil is going down. I do to, but maybe there will be a small bounce in oil first.

 

[Buster]

OK...Oil fell like 26 bucks from it's high. Now, just because oil is up 1 or 2 bucks the market rolls over???

NOT A GOOD SIGN!

Oil has to get below $120.00/bbl before the inverse action on the markets tapper off...So basically we are on the bloody edge of OIL's cavitation...Hang tough neighbor

 

[Corepuncher]

RALLY MONKEY, TAKE ME HOME!​

Muhahahaha! The ingredients are coming together as planned!​

SMART MONEY RULEZ!​

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 7/30/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +5.12%
Today: +0.73%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 8
Tentative Next Move: Buy C Fund at or below the 20 SMA
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[Corepuncher]

As expected (by me), GDP was lower than "expected", and initial jobless claims were higher than expected...but whoa, I did not expect 448K! WOW!

Of course watch the market bottom today...1 day from our first potential buy on August 1st.

It will probably we ok...perhaps the jobs numbers will also suck Friday, allowing the S&P to reach or go below my 20 SMA target.

I hate to say it but F fund might get a big gaint today. HUGE reversal in 10 yr yield from the high yesterday to right now, WOW! :nuts:

 

[Corepuncher]

We are currently at a decision point...either bounce back down, or break through to the upside. Given that we are in a bear market, the GDP was less than expected, and initial jobless claims were shooting the moon, not to mention the employment report ahead of us Friday, I predict stocks will back off this afternoon. The NASDAQ is peaking too early in the day.

Last 2 times the NASDAQ hit the top Bollinger band (like today), it fell 4% in 3 days (May) and then 6% in 4 days (June). I expect this to be a test indeed.

It's just not time to get giddy yet. Sure the stimulus checks are doing their job...right NOW, but what about 6-9-12 months from now? Housing is gonna absoluately STINK into the winter time. Like Merideth Whitney said, it is mathematically impossible for the housing price estimates of these financials to come true (they are not estimating enough of a drop).

 

[Guest2]

We are currently at a decision point...either bounce back down, or break through to the upside. Given that we are in a bear market, the GDP was less than expected, and initial jobless claims were shooting the moon, not to mention the employment report ahead of us Friday, I predict stocks will back off this afternoon. The NASDAQ is peaking too early in the day.

Last 2 times the NASDAQ hit the top Bollinger band (like today), it fell 4% in 3 days (May) and then 6% in 4 days (June). I expect this to be a test indeed.

Great point CP, Thanks for your insight !

 

[Corepuncher]

Looks like a right shoulder forming as of 11am CDT...lets see if turns into a full head and shoulders. I predict NASDAQ will be negative by 1pm EDT.

 

[Corepuncher]

Looks like a right shoulder forming as of 11am CDT...lets see if turns into a full head and shoulders. I predict NASDAQ will be negative by 1pm EDT.

1218 EDT...It is negative.

Now I just need it to STAY down into Friday so I can buy some. That was my plan anyhow. Maybe NOT having an IFT until tomorrow will save me from making a rash purchase today!

 

[Davehop21]

Good Afternoon Corepuncher, I am new and just been watching but want to make good use of my IFT's next month. Are you considering the S fund??

Thanks, Dave

 

[Corepuncher]

Good Afternoon Corepuncher, I am new and just been watching but want to make good use of my IFT's next month. Are you considering the S fund??

Thanks, Dave

Hi Dave. For myself, I would consider both S and C. However, I'm not sure I will every go 100% in stocks again the rest of the year. If I do, it will be for short bounces. I want to see how it plays out.

 

[Corepuncher]

I urge everyone caution right now. The background pattern is still a bear market. Until longer term crossovers such as the 50 crossing the 200 day SMA occur, you should play stints in the market as short term, IMO. If you are ever on the fence, err on the side of G fund (or F if you desire).

Greenspan Part 1 - http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=809512262
part 2 - http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=809518633

Then Meredith Whitney yesterday (uses terms like "mathematically impossible" in regard to the UNDERestimation of home value losses to come)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808357964

As a reminder...here is an old graphic I made.

 

[luv2read]

I urge everyone caution right now. The background pattern is still a bear market. Until longer term crossovers such as the 50 crossing the 200 day SMA occur, you should play stints in the market as short term, IMO. If you are ever on the fence, err on the side of G fund (or F if you desire).

Greenspan Part 1 - http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=809512262
part 2 - http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=809518633

Then Meredith Whitney yesterday (uses terms like "mathematically impossible" in regard to the UNDERestimation of home value losses to come)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808357964

I agree completely.

 

[Show-me]

Ok, I may have to buy you a beer when I get to Norman. Nice!

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 7/31/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +5.13%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 8
Tentative Next Move: Buy C Fund below the 20 SMA / 1255. Think we may head to 1240s soon, especially if data on Friday is bad. MAYBE. Will likely not buy 100% stocks Friday even if down hard, might be follow-through early next week if so.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Still a pretty good sell signal for the next few days with the analog system. I hope to get a calibration scheme going for it soon.

The closest matches:
9/18/1990
10/4/1990 and 10/8/1990
6/8/1984
6/21,22,25/1984
1/28/1982
6/28-30/1982
10/5,6/1980
10/20,21/1980

Maybe I should change SELL to "DOWN", BUY to "UP" and "NO ACTION" to "FLAT"...because that really describes the market....and not really what you should be doing, but you get the idea.

 

[Corepuncher]

Birch got me fired up on Fabijos post! Rubbish!

Now, for some more predictions (more than just "the market will eventually go up")....

Big jobs report data as well as ISM will likely confirm or deny the rally. We should see which way the herd is leaning anyhow. This 1260's level on the S&P seems to be a strong technical level...for both up and down. For up, we really need to penetrate the 1280s. For down, watch for a break of 1240.

FOMC meeting is on Tuesday next week. Perhaps volume will be mediocre at best leading up to Tuesday. If data is worse than expected on Friday, probably a drift lower. Monday we have some crap too but it's nothing compared to the FED meeting.

"BEN IN A BOX"...isn't that what they say?? If he does not raise rates, I bet oil goes up, the dollar goes down. If he raises rates, well hell, that is just tightening the vice on consumer credit and spending.

I'm not going to buy unless we either 1) Close decisively above 1290 or 2) hit 1240 and below. Really, I'm thinking more below (1200 for a retest of lows).

 

[XL-entLady]

Now, for some more predictions (more than just "the market will eventually go up")....I'm not going to buy unless we either 1) Close decisively above 1290 or 2) hit 1240 and below. Really, I'm thinking more below (1200 for a retest of lows).

Thanks, CP! My most sincere appreciation for your intelligent and reasoned opinions. I knew there was a reason we voted you Secretary of the Treasury! :laugh:

Lady