Corepuncher's Account Talk

[JTH]

Corepuncher, kudos to you, you've been making some great calls recently.

I'm still not sure we will reach the 1300s, but then again I'm the guy sitting in G who missed the rally :toung:

It's probably too late for me to chase this rally, but I'm happy to see others have gained while I have not lost. I just hope anyone who is risk adversive has taken some gains off the table. :notrust:

 

[Corepuncher]

I like the rally...but I feel like I'm holding my breath!

Just remember that when this rally finally fails and we head south, it will be very, very ugly. KD says 6-12 months, we have a 3 digit S&P. The P&F chart, just a few days ago predicted 970. An average bear market would take us down to 1100. 50 MA WAY below the 200 MA (long term sell signal). Goldman Sachs predicting 149 oil again by years end. Bad holiday season expected. Freddie and Fannie will have to be bailed out, no way housing turns around anytime soon. Cramer called the bottom. Obama is gonna raise taxes.

Can anyone come up with half as many reasons the economy will be in good shape over the next year?

Just some things to keep in mind. It's risky being 100% in.

Latest Analog output. NOTE: The way I count matches is a bit less than optimal, because there are typically clusters of several days in a row, thus, if one matching period has 10 days in it, and another has only 1, the 10 will get much more weight. But then again, maybe it means something. More testing is required. I need to come up with an algorithm in excel that would count a cluster of matches as 1 match perhaps.

Anyway it suggests we might want to buy on any weakness days 1-5, and perhaps sell days 6-10 on strength.

 

[Corepuncher]

Corepuncher, kudos to you, you've been making some great calls recently.

I'm still not sure we will reach the 1300s, but then again I'm the guy sitting in G who missed the rally :toung:

It's probably too late for me to chase this rally, but I'm happy to see others have gained while I have not lost. I just hope anyone who is risk adversive has taken some gains off the table. :notrust:

Thanks JTH...it sure feels good when things go as planned. You may get an entry point soon if you want to try to get a pop. Buy near the 20 SMA.

 

[Corepuncher]

Initial Jobless Claims for the week came in at 455K...much higher than the 420K expected and it is all around just a very high number. Not good.

Today looks almost certainly down...hit the upper B-band yesterday so yeah duh! Could have sold yesterday for a lower buy today if I had any IFT's left.

Will be curious to see how the market holds up. Should start off down pretty hard. If we do start a down trend, and bounce off the 20 SMA would be nice. Ah well, for those who are out of IFT's, if it does go down a lot, we have several weeks to recover to try to get above that pesky 1300!

 

[Corepuncher]

I must say, I am happy with the market today. It is really showing some strength and resilience in the face of bad news. A few weeks ago...we'd be down 3%.

Look at the NASDAQ...scraping it's head on the upper bollinger band STILL even on a day like today. TECH is leading this market when financials can't. Financials aren't hardly responding anymore to bad news...have they hit bottom?

They just said most of the DOW drop right now is Wahl Mart and AIG. Wal Mart is the best performing DOW company YTD! Buying opportunity. Once the shorties see we aren't even dropping on bad news, they will start to cover and hit us with another big 300+ pt DOW day.

Oil is thinking about dropping...wavering near 119.00. S&P holding near 1280 as I type. Bullish chart pattern still fully intact. Patience young grasshopper! (talking to myself!).

 

[JTH]

I must say, I am happy with the market today. It is really showing some strength and resilience in the face of bad news. A few weeks ago...we'd be down 3%.

I wholeheartitly agree

Perhaps you guys can still make a run for the 1300s early next week. I'm actually hoping you do because I don't want to enter in in the middle of this trend, so lets just get it over with shall we? IT's still early in the month and I still have 2 IFTs and plenty of opprotunities. :toung:

 

[airlift]

CP,
If we are able to bounce and continue the rally in the next few days, we might be looking at substantial money coming in from the sidelines. Perhaps smart money is not persuaded, because there is sufficient grounds to expect lower stock valuations commensurate with a consumer credit crunch (absent the ATM rotation in housing) as well as the yet not-over housing crisis. But this is an election year. Moreover, we seem to have hit "a bottom". We have to try to anticipate when another downturn is most likely later, because no matter which party wins the contest, the undeniable reality is that the national debt is extended and easy money wii be over. I guess stagflation needs continued attention and fine tunning. Pardon grammar or errors. Thanks!

 

[luv2read]

I was just looking at my spreadsheet from last year and we are about at the point where the big run-up started after last July's panic. That rally lasted into November with a couple of slides. August is typically a slow month but it wasn't last year - before we knew what we know now - so maybe the bull will continue to run up this path for a bit yet.

 

[FogSailing]

L2R, that was also my reading based on comparison to last year. It would certainly be nice to see a run up. Today is bad news day..but we still seem to find enough good news every few days to get the market to rally.

Based on what the experts are saying the longer term trend appears to be down (Greenspan, Summers, Buffet) for a time because of all the negative factors (meaning extended debt and lack of credit), but those are just indicators. I still think energy is the big kahuna and until that issue is addressed in some meaningful policy, we will continue to have a slide in the markets. So, I'm going to be very cautious. Of course, this makes the shorts happy because they are very good at exploiting the immediate opportunities..but I wouldn't want to be in when the BAD day happens. Just isn't worth it IMHO.

GL to all in their investing.

FS

 

[nasa1974]

L2R, I like your thinking. By no means am I an expert but, the lows and highs that this current market is having is with low volume. Lets hope the big dollars kick in soon and we are all in position to ride the train.


May the force be with us.

 

[luv2read]

Also last year that big rally happened despite the "bad news bears" that were announced almost weekly. Any bad news was just ignored by the big money on the run to the last hurrah - they knew what the real story was (credit, housing) but kept going. I remember wondering what the heck is feeding the bull back then...In retrospect we should have been more suspicious of Bush's "economic indicators" are all fine talk, but hey....we all rode the train until it crashed. Then in November phase 2 - oops - the credit cat's out of the bag, now for the runup in oil.

There was great article posted by someone on the whole pyramid scheme months ago but I can't find it....it had "must read" in the title.

 

[Corepuncher]

Stupid TSP Board! I would have gained 1.68% in shares today if it weren't for those meddling kids!

Updated Tracker COB 8/07/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +5.59%
Today: -1.68%
Current Allocation: 45C 55S
Tracker Rank: 6
Tentative Next Move: Sell > 1300
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Braveheart]

stupid tsp board! I would have gained 1.68% in shares today if it weren't for those meddling kids!

updated tracker cob 8/07/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 ytd return: +5.59%
today: -1.68%
current allocation: 45c 55s
tracker rank: 6
tentative next move: sell > 1300
----------------------------------------------------------------------

exactly - they suck !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Corepuncher]

I changed the wording (which was somewhat subjective) to just say "DOWN", "UP", or "FLAT" from "SELL", "BUY" and "NO ACTION", respectively. Actually it was wrong of me to say "SELL", because if the next 5 days are a "BUY", then you would want to "BUY" on the "SELL" signal, so now it makes more sense just to call it "DOWN"

 

[Corepuncher]

Hey hey hey, showing some strength today! You can really tell the market "wants" to go up.

Correction (book keeping purposes)
Updated Tracker COB 8/07/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +5.60%
Today: -1.67%
Current Allocation: 45C 55S
Tracker Rank: 6
Tentative Next Move: Sell 50% at 1295-1300
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

There very well may be a recession or even a depression in our future, but now is not the time and when it becomes apparent that that will happen, it will be a major crash.

Intermediate term, I am forecasting that whatever rally we have this year, it will not break the high of 1440 intraday on May 19th. In fact, I don't even think we'll get to 1400. I think earnings and GDP reports in October will be the catalysts to end whatever rally may be remaining.

Starting Tuesday, our 20 SMA is gonna start going up at a steeper angle as wel shed the July low days. Rising technical support = good. My best guess is for a short term high either Mon, Tue or Wed. Recently, Tue/Wed has been VERY good to us so lets see if it continues. :nuts:

 

[nasa1974]

There very well may be a recession or even a depression in our future, but now is not the time and when it becomes apparent that that will happen, it will be a major crash.

Intermediate term, I am forecasting that whatever rally we have this year, it will not break the high of 1440 intraday on May 19th. In fact, I don't even think we'll get to 1400. I think earnings and GDP reports in October will be the catalysts to end whatever rally may be remaining.

Starting Tuesday, our 20 SMA is gonna start going up at a steeper angle as wel shed the July low days. Rising technical support = good. My best guess is for a short term high either Mon, Tue or Wed. Recently, Tue/Wed has been VERY good to us so lets see if it continues. :nuts:

CP, The market has been running on low to moderate volume for awhile now. I would have to say all bets are off once the big money on the sidelines jumps in. Monday will be real interesting. Mondays have typically been a down day for the market (almost 3-1). But you are right on Tuesdays and Wednesdays being bounce days. My guess is if the volume is fairly high today next week could have a few days pushing the highs befor ea good sell off the end of the week.

 

[Steadygain]

There very well may be a recession or even a depression in our future, but now is not the time and when it becomes apparent that that will happen, it will be a major crash.

With 5 to 6 years of outstanding gains (this year likely included) a recession (or depression) is inevitable. And I would certainly agree that it will have a more typical pattern - that all of us can call it for what it's worth.

Intermediate term, I am forecasting that whatever rally we have this year, it will not break the high of 1440 intraday on May 19th. In fact, I don't even think we'll get to 1400. I think earnings and GDP reports in October will be the catalysts to end whatever rally may be remaining.

Gauging the Financial/Housing/Increasing Jobless Rates...and other reports I understand your prediction...but... I believe all these things will be largely ignored once the election takes place...that this event will likely be perceived as "the ultimate stablizer" and if an upward move is in the making it will take off like a rocket and keep going through the end of the year.

Starting Tuesday, our 20 SMA is gonna start going up at a steeper angle as wel shed the July low days. Rising technical support = good. My best guess is for a short term high either Mon, Tue or Wed. Recently, Tue/Wed has been VERY good to us so lets see if it continues. :nuts:

I hope you're right on this. If it goes up too fast - it's too volitile and will crash back - so I'd way rather have a short rally followed by some settling ... then move up slowly.

 

[Birchtree]

If the last hour drives another 100 points to Dow 11,831 the bears will be climbing trees.

 

[ATCJeff]

If the last hour drives another 100 points to Dow 11,831 the bears will be climbing trees.

Watching the first 10 minutes of Fast Money (CNBC) you would think the bottom is in and the bears are done.

They see the dollar continuing to strengthen and commodities continuing to sink. Big money is flowing from commodities into equities.

All I can say about this market is wow. Great week for everybody that was long in the C&S. I would run from the I fund.