Corepuncher's Account Talk

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Steadygain said:
I totally agree my friend - that's why I was so outraged and came on so strong initially. It just burns me - that they can reduce the rate to 2% and not make a similar cut for the average person. It's not that I feel a lot for the ones who did not think things through to begin with. I honestly believe many need to learn from their mistakes and not expect the taxpayers and government to bail them out. But many more - who do think things through - and are trying to buy a house during a very difficult period - these are the ones who should be getting these super rate deals AS IT IS THE ONES WHO HAVE MONEY AND ARE PRODUCTIVE CITIZENS THAT WILL SPUR THE ECONOMY.
Click to expand...


I guess you could say that the Government is actually giving out SUBPRIME LOANS (and the taxpayer will likely be on the hook).
 
Updated Tracker COB 8/11/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +8.87%
Today: +1.09% :)
Current Allocation: 45G 55S
Tracker Rank: 3
Tentative Next Move: Gradually fade rally over the next 2 weeks.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
CP, You're making a great run, I wish I had followed along side you.

I made a potential bad move today, I jumped in because I'm in class all week without internet. I figured today would be flat or to the down-side, but Mr. Market had other ideas...

Sitting 20% each in CSI. It will be hard to pull some gains under these circumstances, but I'll see what I can manage.

I'm drinking one for the upside tonight :embarrest:
 
JTH said:
CP, You're making a great run, I wish I had followed along side you.

I made a potential bad move today, I jumped in because I'm in class all week without internet. I figured today would be flat or to the down-side, but Mr. Market had other ideas...

Sitting 20% each in CSI. It will be hard to pull some gains under these circumstances, but I'll see what I can manage.

I'm drinking one for the upside tonight :embarrest:
Click to expand...

Who knows where the rally top will be. The only advice I would have is get rid of I fund...S seems a much better choice.

I think we'll get a big up candle when the 20 sma crosses above the 50 sma. Looks like it's gonna happen, even if we go sideways for a couple weeks.
 
Todays run of historic analogs. Relatively few matches...suggesting we are in a rare area of parameter distribution. Overall, i would read the data as a push.

stars_081108.JPG
 
Corepuncher,
When you say that you would read the data as a push, do you refer to downward pressure or upward pressure?
 
CP, good morning. Do you have the data on your spreadsheet hooked-up (active hyperlink) to their respective sites?
 
nsurf i sent you a PM about it.

Market going down today, how predictable. Man oh man if I only had unlimited IFT's. TSP board sure timed it right...right as I was starting to get good at this that is! :mad: I woulda went 100 G yesterday and then bought 25-50% back COB today for another quick gain in shares.
 
Yeah baby, you know it.:mad:

Say CP, how about a hurricane update? Any potential for development of those 2 systems? I thought the hurricane hunter plane was flying today?
 
luv2read said:
Yeah baby, you know it.:mad:

Say CP, how about a hurricane update? Any potential for development of those 2 systems? I thought the hurricane hunter plane was flying today?
Click to expand...

Hmm...those waves might be far enough south so that the ERN US trough does not pick them up.

Here is the latest ECMWF model (the best model for medium range).

cep12_9panel.gif


Starting at the 12Z August 18th frame (7th frame) you can see an "L" or the low center just S of CUBA...then the model brings it NW right into the heart of oil rig territory! Keep in mind this is 10 days out...but this model is as good as any and I GUARANTEE simply taking this model at face value at 10 days out, you will be making as good of a forecast as ANY meteorologist working for the big firms. There you have it, enjoy and make some trades.:laugh:
 
Hey, CP, with unlimited IFTs, I was at 18.64% on March 26. The equity funds were at F@ -.19; C@+1.96; S@+3.6%; I@+3.60%. The point of this is not one of bragging, the point is of what these bafoons have done to us to meet their mandate of saving a few dollars - that we would have gladly paid. I was on track (with a wish) for a 75% year, and with this volitile market, the potential was, and probably still is, there. Not 75%, but there.
 
nsurf9 said:
Hey, CP, with unlimited IFTs, I was at 18.64% on March 26. The equity funds were at F@ -.19; C@+1.96; S@+3.6%; I@+3.60%. The point of this is not one of bragging, the point is of what these bafoons have done to us to meet their mandate of saving a few dollars - that we would have gladly paid. I was on track (with a wish) for a 75% year, and with this volitile market, the potential was, and probably still is, there. Not 75%, but there.
Click to expand...

One method I think that works is you first define whether we are in a BEAR or BULL market. I like to use the objective 100 and 200 day EMA crossovers to define. Obviously, right now it is a bearish crossover with no sign of crossing back anytime soon.

With that as a background, it has been a very good move as of late to SELL 100% the FIRST time you hit the lower Bollinger band. Take a look....it's crazy good...

low_bollinger.jpg


The reason you have to define the "background" with the 100/200 EMAs is because this method DOES NOT WORK in a bull market. Perhaps next time any of us are reluctant to stop ourselves out of the market, we can use this as guidance. I know I will! Until the longer term MA's confirm BULL....
 
Corepuncher said:
Who knows where the rally top will be. The only advice I would have is get rid of I fund...S seems a much better choice.

I think we'll get a big up candle when the 20 sma crosses above the 50 sma. Looks like it's gonna happen, even if we go sideways for a couple weeks.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the input CP ;). It appears my IFT Monday morning has not gone through. If that's the case, then I'm still sitting 100% G with 2 IFTs. My TSP account says as of close 11 Aug and I made the IFT around 9:30 am EST. Weird, but perhaps for the better...
 
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