Corepuncher's Account Talk

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Corepuncher said:
I don't like Target, Home depot and HP earnings on Tuesday. Monday is a no economic data day but we have Lowes reporting. Weighing all things, I may sell 25% or so of my S fund today, and then sell the rest Monday if we are up. Overall economic data today was not too bad, so maybe we can get a small rally into the close.
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CP, I would not pull everything back to G. See my post: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5743 I would guess you have more in your TSP than I do so your % may be a little smaller. It's a thought since we only have 2 IFT's.


MAy the force be with us.:cool:
 
nasa1974 said:
CP, There is actually someone out there predicting that oil will fall below $100 and settle out somewhere between 30 to 50 dollars a barrel. :blink: Here is the link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/9110...0?source=yahoo
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30-50 a barrel? Now THAT would be something! Goldman Sachs, last I knew is forecasting 149 again. I think 110 will be tough to break and it may take months to get below 100.

At least short term, I think this is a hollow rally with nothing to support it except short covering and feeling good about a rising dollar. Oil is down big today and people are rotating into short term treasuries more than stocks.
 
Someone with A LOT of money bought oil at around 2:20 pm ET...

(image expires Monday)

z
 
There are all kinds of things indicating a near term pullback is coming.

In no particular order...

1) Strong oil support at > 110. Could bounce.

2) Even though oil was down hard today, not much rejoicing from stocks!

3) Small caps and Tech, the "leaders" of this rally, have tired. Russell 2000 tested the June '08 high. I just don't see how it breaks much above THAT!

4) XLF/Financials are under the 20 day SMA, and could not close above. They may be headed down and IMO would take tired small caps/tech with down with it. Goldman Sachs down hard today, not a good sign for the sector as "best of breed".

5) While commodities were down hard, there was quite a bit of money flowing into BONDS (AGG/F fund). I'm actually getting a little bullish on F...but can't IFT.

6) Earnings... Lowes reports on Monday. I think it will disappoint. Then, we have Home Despot on Tue along with Target! Retail has been rallying, but I think all three of those earnings reports could take retail DOWN!

HP reports after the bell Tuesday. A "miss" or even just a "meet" would be reason to sell the stock in this environment, especially given overbought tech sector. Could be a down catalyst in TECH with limited upside potential.

7) Not to mention housing and inflation Tuesday.

8) Last but not least, look at the VOLUME during the up days over the past several weeks...notice a trend? While we have been in an uptrend channel, it's like a mirror image if you plot volume below. Low volume = less conviction. I don't like it at all.


My goal of selling as the Russell 2000 hit it's high has been met. I left 25% in stocks on the off chance that we are actually UP on Monday before all the big information starts coming in.


Updated Tracker COB 8/15/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +9.16%
Today: +0.05%
Current Allocation: 75G 24S 1C
Tracker Rank: 2
Tentative Next Move: May just hold on to 25S for a while. Perhaps sell on an up Monday (but I doubt it will be up).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
I certianly agree with you CP; everythings getting tired so perhaps we need some downside before we can test the highs. The financials have me worried... :confused:
 
CP,
Thank you for the excellent wide-angle, in-depth, analysis that you are providing. You consider all major potential impacts and factors that could drive the markets one way or the other. Thanks again!
 
I added another box, the "weighted 4 week mean return" (black box). Numbers should not be taken literally, but instead try to glean any trends (rising or falling returns, or even very high or very low absolute values).

It is important to note you CANNOT compare the 4 week average output number between the first two methods and the 3rd method...they are different types of systems. Compare the numbers to previous numbers, and, keep very mindful of the number of matches. A day that has less matches may contain more skewed data which will go into the averages for that day.

Again, this is just a tool that may or may not push you to one side if you are on the fence. It is not to be followed blindly, especially since it is experimental.

stars_081508.JPG


Moving average matching method:

stars2_081508.JPG
 
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From a new Barron's article...
"It is growing increasingly likely that the Treasury will recapitalize Fannie and Freddie in the months ahead on the taxpayer's dime, availing itself of powers granted it under the new housing bill signed into law last month. Such a move almost certainly would wipe out existing holders of the agencies' common stock, with preferred shareholders and even holders of the two entities' $19 billion of subordinated debt also suffering losses. Barron's first raised the possibility of a government takeover of Fannie and Freddie in a March 10 cover story, "Is Fannie Mae Toast?""
​
 
My neighbors built their house in 2006. They just sold it for 1000 less, 2 years later.

This is Oklahoma, where until now I thought we were immune from this housing downturn since housing prices were already so low.

Just in the last few days, my boss at work was getting ready to sell his house, but the people buying it were using a VA loan/appraiser. They appraised his house for about 5 bucks a square foot lower than the agreed selling price. This is a newer home in a nice subdivision. The deal fell through and now my boss is not going to buy their newer home.

He thinks that just a few months ago, this would not have happened. Looks like appraisers are going backwards and trying to drive house prices down now, at least for FHA/VA loans. Anyway, this does not bode well for Fannie and Freddie. It is a scary thing, and I bet the market gets spooked once again, sooner than later.
 
Corepuncher said:
...my boss at work was getting ready to sell his house, but the people buying it were using a VA loan/appraiser. They appraised his house for about 5 bucks a square foot lower than the agreed selling price. This is a newer home in a nice subdivision. The deal fell through ... It is a scary thing, and I bet the market gets spooked once again, sooner than later.
Click to expand...

I live in an area where, up until 2 years ago, home prices were rising by double digits a year for almost a decade because it's a great vacation and retirement spot. In the last two years home prices have dropped by over 20%, although the average no-frills 3-bed 2-bath home still sells for a quarter million. A member of my extended family has been trying to sell their home here after a job-related move and has had 3 different buyers lined up, all with average credit. But credit has tightened down so much that none of the buyers have been able to get loans. So he's making two house payments and hanging on by his fingernails, trying to keep from losing a home to foreclosure.

The credit crunch is apparent all over the county as more and more homes become vacant, don't sell, and prices continue to fall. I live in a very upscale neighborhood by a golf course, and there are two homes on my street that are vacant. I keep telling myself that the reasons that made this area such a desirable place to live are still all valid and the housing crunch will pass. But you carry this scenario across the nation and it makes you nervous! :sick:
 
An Anti-Rally Monkey WATCH has been issued.
Conditions are favorable for the development of falling stocks.
Consider seeking shelter in G or F.

antimonkey.jpg


A Lemming
Lemming.jpg


​
 
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CP, That is to funny. I wish I had a couple of extra moves. :mad: Since I don't I think I will play out my 10% C and 15% S and see what happens. :laugh:



May the force be with us.:cool:
 
100G

Crude finding support. Financials not. Retail, Tech and Small caps have maxed out too early, IMO. If I was in C I might stay in longer but I was in S and I think it may be done for a bit. I think I think I think...blah blah blah!:nuts:

Still think Target earnings will stink. What, because of stimulus you are going to buy more expensive groceries? Or more expensive "discount" goods? No way, they stick to Wal Mart. Oil inventories may see a draw once again, and that will cause prices to move up even more.
 
Corepuncher said:
100G

Crude finding support. Financials not. Retail, Tech and Small caps have maxed out too early, IMO. If I was in C I might stay in longer but I was in S and I think it may be done for a bit. I think I think I think...blah blah blah!:nuts:

Still think Target earnings will stink. What, because of stimulus you are going to buy more expensive groceries? Or more expensive "discount" goods? No way, they stick to Wal Mart. Oil inventories may see a draw once again, and that will cause prices to move up even more.
Click to expand...

I am glad I got out of the S Fund 100% at $18.68 last week to 100% G Fund. I think it may go below $17.90 this week. I will be looking to get back in at $17.50 around there so I'll wait for that 2nd IFT and make that move. I think you are right about the earnings this week and reports will drop this market back another 200-300 points. The S & P and the C Fund watch for me will be 1240 - This is a tough market to get change out of but money can be made as I see you are up over 8% this year. That is huge considering how bad this market is.
 
Updated Tracker COB 8/18/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +8.82%
Today: -.34%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 2
Tentative Next Move: Wait for < 1240 to buy after 9/1/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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