As of 10:25am CDT, we are sitting about 2/3rds of a % above the 20 SMA. If you think this rally will continue, today could be a good entry point as we would bounce up once we get near the 20 SMA.
Also, within about a week, the 20 SMA should cross above the 50 day SMA. This will be viewed as a bullish sign.
I knew I was playing with fire by not getting 100% out on August 11th, but perhaps the lemmings will break that high over the next 2 weeks or so.
The lower Bollinger band for the S&P is rising into the 1240's soon. If we break below that band, that is my stop to get all out. NOTE: In 3 of the last 4 lower B Band penetrations, there was actually a small bounce right afterwards before the plunges took place. So...maybe you could sell at a higher price 1 or 2 days after the 1st penetration.
PS...I fund still sucks and is sucking worse every day!
http://www.corepuncher.com/misc/stocks.html
Latest analog guidance PLUS a bonus...another matching system based on the relative locations of the 20,50,100, and 200 day SMA. I will further refine this secondary matching system with time.
What to make of all this? Well, the first method shows relativel flatness, which would suggest we bounce around just above the 20 SMA.
The second system, less matches but higher quality, shows some minor down potential, but just barely...I use 0.25% per WEEK as the cut-off between saying "flat" vs Up or Down...so as you can see, it's only showing a quarter to a third of a percentage down for entire weeks...combine that with the % of down matches only in the mid 50's, and it's not a very strong down signal, IMO.
Now, the new system (method 3)...it shows a fairly strong up signal, over 1% on week two with an 86% up match! Maybe some hope to sell higher in coming weeks.
