Corepuncher's Account Talk

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"NOT SO FAST" - The big hungry bear

Now if todays action is not bearish, I don't know what is! That 1370-1380 is tough!

I'm gonna get in a range trading mode 1320-1370. Any big down day within that range, I'm gonna buy. Any big up day, I'm gonna sell.
 
Corepuncher said:
"NOT SO FAST" - The big hungry bear

Now if todays action is not bearish, I don't know what is! That 1370-1380 is tough!

I'm gonna get in a range trading mode 1320-1370. Any big down day within that range, I'm gonna buy. Any big up day, I'm gonna sell.
Click to expand...

Just a friendly reminder that the strategy will not be useful very much longer.
 
Anyone know why exactly the Tracker has to be so restrictive with the timing? Why not allow everyone to enter their IFT until like 5pm or just before the program is run to update the board? Anyway, I forgot once again and am gonna scrap it.
 
They are just trying to keep everyone on an even keel. You have to set parameters. I usually make my IFTs a day in advance - no hurry on my part.
 
Birchtree said:
They are just trying to keep everyone on an even keel. You have to set parameters. I usually make my IFTs a day in advance - no hurry on my part.
Click to expand...

Everyone is usually so preoccupied with thier real deadline, they tend to forget, even with the <short> grace period. I'm just saying why not make it easy and set the deadline for 5 or 6 pm...it would just be more efficient is all.
 
ALERT: Notice the divergence in the 10 yr bond yields and the market right now?? The yields are moving back lower, while the market chugs away higher. Hmmm...

Friday I believe will be judgment day for this rally attempt.

If the news is bad, bombs away. If the news is good but a rally gets sold, we'll probably head back down towards 1330's at least.

My forecast(guess): We close in the red for the 4th Friday in a row.
 
Corepuncher said:
Everyone is usually so preoccupied with thier real deadline, they tend to forget, even with the <short> grace period. I'm just saying why not make it easy and set the deadline for 5 or 6 pm...it would just be more efficient is all.
Click to expand...
Even If I wait until the last minute to make the change on the govt TSP site, there is still plenty of time to enter the IFT in the tracker. The 12:10 grace period is more than enough for me. I've never had a problem.
 
southbeachrat said:
Even If I wait until the last minute to make the change on the govt TSP site, there is still plenty of time to enter the IFT in the tracker. The 12:10 grace period is more than enough for me. I've never had a problem.
Click to expand...

Good for you.

You are used to it, I just started and wanted an error to be corrected, and I was gonna make sure I remembered next time but it was denied. I did not have a chance to get in the habit. The deadline is arbitrary and restrictive. Anyway, I'm not gonna complain about it anymore, because I'm not using it.
 
From denningers blog...( I also saw this Egan guy on CNBC the other day).

Finally, this afternoon Egan-Jones came on CNBC and told the truth about the monoline insurers - they need $30 billion EACH to be "AAA" credit quality. Who is Egan-Jones? A ratings agency NOT PAID BY THE ISSUER, who by the way, has a NINETY FIVE PERCENT accuracy rate in their ratings. They're the ones who blew the whistle on ENRON and MCI, among others. Ignore them at your peril - they are very rarely wrong.

So if the government was gonna "bail" them ALL out to maintain AAA ratings, they would need to pull about 200 billion out of their you know what. What a nice precedent that would be, eh?!

By the way, check out the behavior of housing.
1) FED slashed rates, yet the 30 yr fixed mortgage DID NOT MOVE
2) Bad combo: Negative savings rate and Falling home prices. This will even deny thousands the ability to refinance, because they cannot roll the closing costs into their new loan, and, they do not have enough for a down payment!
3) Housing sales are falling, not only that, but accelerating...this, in the face of lower rates and falling home prices? NOT GOOD.
4) Lending standards are getting much tougher, denying many loans in the first place.

Again, credit is the lifes blood of the US economy. And don't think other skeletons are not gonna get uncovered as this whole credit issue unfolds. It will just make it worse and worse. Needless to say, especially with the new TSP limited transfer rules, I'm gonna err on the side of being in G. I'm sure the market will go up and down for a while, but I expect that this more like 2000 and not 1998.

side note: in 1998, we went down 21% over a 1.5 month period, then rebounded 10% over a 1 month period, before retesting the lows, and then resuming the bull. The analogy for today would be the October high, then the NOVEMBER LOWS, which we not only retested but blew through. The tech bubble was crazy, but this credit deal, ESPECIALLY if you think about possible inflation in the near future, is a terminal illness which could lead to a depression. Reality check! Oil is still around 90 a barrel folks. Commodities and food are continuing to rise. That is inflation. God forbid we get another terrorist attack and a Dem in office who is going to RAISE taxes?
 
The image below is of the S&P for the past 10 years, with the WEEKLY MACD below. Note how we have gone substantially below the zero line for the first time since late 2000. I have noted the current level with the magenta line..note how it is at a lower level than when we breached zero back in 1998. Also, the behavior of the weekly MACD looks more similar (steady decline) comparing 2000 to now (in 1998, we were rocketing up just prior). The last time we were at these levels, we were beginning a bear market. Something to think about.


weekly_macd.gif
 
It's not just the Dems who will have to raise taxes, unless we just want to keep just paying off the interest on the deficit and ignoring the principal, and keeping the wars off-budget. Lowering taxes is irresponsible when the country is in debt. No one's telling the truth on this...er besides Ron Paul....but he won't get enough delegates to be the Republican candidate so unfortunately he's just a voice in the wilderness. So we have the party of borrow and spend and the party of tax and spend..pick your poison. Sorry, very fustrated with the situation our country is in.
 
Silverbird said:
It's not just the Dems who will have to raise taxes, unless we just want to keep just paying off the interest on the deficit and ignoring the principal, and keeping the wars off-budget. Lowering taxes is irresponsible when the country is in debt. No one's telling the truth on this...er besides Ron Paul....but he won't get enough delegates to be the Republican candidate so unfortunately he's just a voice in the wilderness. So we have the party of borrow and spend and the party of tax and spend..pick your poison. Sorry, very fustrated with the situation our country is in.
Click to expand...

Ron Paul doesn't even tell the whole truth. With regard to Social Security, he states that we must honor all our Social Security commitments and even proposes eliminating any taxes on Social Security benefits. This will only add to our deficit problems. He also proposes allowing younger people to direct a portion of their payroll taxes into private accounts, a move that will further add to Social Security's shortfall.
 
UBS downgraded credit card companies American Express (AXP 48.05, -1.55), Capital One (COF 53.17, -3.80) and Discover Financial (DFS 16.82, -1.14) to Sell. Merrill Lynch downgraded Wachovia (WB 36.25, -2.51) and Wells Fargo (WFC 31.90, -1.75) to Sell.

Hmph! Maybe Merrill should downgrade herself!

Exactly 8 trading days ago, we were at 1270.

I can see the headlines now "The bears returned to Wall street this week, wiping out nearly all of the gains posted during the previous record week"
 
Ah, G fund!

I fail to see a catalyst for a major trend reversal to upward. Will remain G for now. Latest plan is to begin buying back in below 1300, only to sell once again, that is!
 
Cisco guidance was a disaster! Down 7-8% in after hours.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CSCO

That will really drag the market down tomorrow, and just imagine if we get a high initial claims number to boot?

Why don't we throw on top of all this a bond insurer getting downgraded! Time to be short.
 
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