Corepuncher's Account Talk

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JTH said:
Don't feel too bad there CP. Your logic has always been sound. Problem is this market is acting like an emotional irrational women. You can't argue with it, all you can do is say "yes dear" or move into the dog house... :suspicious:
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CP, I agree. I've made good money off your insights. If you are at your wits end then maybe capitulation is near. :rolleyes:
 
Corepuncher said:
I give up. Waving the white flag! But might as well stay in C and DCA. I'm down 27% YTD but hey I'm beating the "market" by over 20% and fully invested. Something to be happy about. I feel like with my job and such, I'm as immune to this economy as anyone can be, and very thankful.
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Corepuncher said:
I keep making good market calls but then I don't listen to my self because I get impatient and gamble. next time, somebody please tell me to listen to my advice. TY! :sick:
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That is great to beat the market by 20%! I don't listen to myself either and the IFT make it hard to correct mistakes. I feel like once I'm in I can't get out or I miss my chance to gain.
 
Corepuncher said:
I keep making good market calls but then I don't listen to my self because I get impatient and gamble. next time, somebody please tell me to listen to my advice. TY! :sick:
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Core...Poolman often posts a link to a guy named Ira Epstein, who is an excellent chartist, if you haven't seen him. You're very good yourself, but I'm tellin' ya, watching this guy, as another pair of eyes, helps me be FOCUSED and disciplined, eliminating some of my knee-jerk impulses. :cheesy:

Here's his link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bo9Apce4_zA
 
Show-me said:
That is great to beat the market by 20%! I don't listen to myself either and the IFT make it hard to correct mistakes. I feel like once I'm in I can't get out or I miss my chance to gain.
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As Terp says, finding a focal point like Ira helps. We have to maintain poise and perspective as the pain is almost certainly temporary. Sooner or later we will be rewarded with a nice rally and if we play it well we could significantly cut our losses by selling into it and waiting for the next dip. Bear market rules still apply, and we are so oversold it's ridiculous. There is a mountain of cash out there buying bonds and cash instruments. Much of it is finding its way under the mattress too. :laugh:

But you can bet da boyz are waiting for the right time to strike. And when they do, those in cash could be the ones staring into the headlights. The volatility is still here and it could happen. Easily. A few astute moves and we're back in the game. :D
 
coolhand said:
As Terp says, finding a focal point like Ira helps. And we have to maintain poise and perspective. The pain is almost certainly temporary. Sooner or later we will be rewarded with a nice rally and if we play it well we could significantly cut our losses by selling into it and waiting for the next dip. Bear market rules still apply, and we are so oversold it's ridiculous. There is a mountain of cash out there buying bonds and cash instruments. Much of it is finding its way under the mattress too. :laugh:

But you can bet da boyz are waiting for the right time to strike. And when they do, those in cash could be the ones staring into the headlights. The volatility is still here and it could happen. Easily. A few astute moves and we're back in the game. :D
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A 27% move from 750 is only 952...at that level, I would be 0% YTD! I can only dream...

I"m going to forecast a > 15% rally in a day. I just hope it comes soon and not from 500 or something!

Remember the ole 50 day/200 day SMA crossover method? It crossed over back in January for a sell signal. Well guess what, it is not only still crossed over...but at it's LARGEST DIVERGENCE SO FAR and it continues to diverge! NO END IN SIGHT.
 
I'm listening to CNBC and everyone is screaming that stock are too cheap. Citi is way to cheap and they are going to regulator around the world to stop "rumor mongering". There is a issue with the stock price falling below $5 because mutual funds will not hold a stock below $5. Some consider it a penny stock below $5.
 
For some reason I think that "Black Friday" will have better than expected results. The reason is low gas prices. Whether people realize ON Friday it is better than expected I don't know...I"m also not sure if TSP is open on Friday? Anyone know? It's a half day.

Anyway, looking at the charts, 900 looks to be about as important as a level as 850. I think 900 is the level to take at least half off, and that is what I'd like to do preliminarily. Also, it is less risky to sell right now because we are near the end of the month...so I feel more comfortable taking some off.

I think this week will end holding most of it's gains. Next week, the jobs report looms...and I feel we will sell some off ahead of that news. If you are out this week, you can then buy lower next week. :)
 
Economic data for OCT is coming in bad...some is "worse than expected"...which really, isn't that unexpected! I think there is real support now around this 850 level. If you have been out...I think you should buy any dips below 850...and...get ready for a relief rally. How high? First level I see is 900...but then 1000-1050 will be the real tough one to crack, IMO.

Get ready to refinance....I bet we see 5.25% 30 yr fixed really soon..and possibly as low as 5.00%.

Once the money starts flowing again and banks are literally forced to lend, it will seem like things are back to "normal" but IMO, what we will be doing is inflating the FINAL bubble that will doom us...the one that ruins the US debt rating, causes hyperinflation, etc. I don't know when that will be, but it seems likely.
 
Corepuncher said:
Economic data for OCT is coming in bad...some is "worse than expected"...which really, isn't that unexpected! I think there is real support now around this 850 level. If you have been out...I think you should buy any dips below 850...and...get ready for a relief rally. How high? First level I see is 900...but then 1000-1050 will be the real tough one to crack, IMO.

Get ready to refinance....I bet we see 5.25% 30 yr fixed really soon..and possibly as low as 5.00%.

Once the money starts flowing again and banks are literally forced to lend, it will seem like things are back to "normal" but IMO, what we will be doing is inflating the FINAL bubble that will doom us...the one that ruins the US debt rating, causes hyperinflation, etc. I don't know when that will be, but it seems likely.
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I like the 1060 figure. That would put me in the positive category for they year.:D
 
I did some more analysis and here are my upside targets for the next couple months or so. I believe this is only a bear rally.

1150-1160 = Levels near the "bailout" vote.
Probability of hitting: Almost ZERO

1044 = High from 10/14.
Probability of hitting: Very low

1000-1010 = Strong resistance level 10/7-11/5. Also, top of Bollinger Band!
Probability of hitting: Low (Moderate if we are lucky).

950-960 = 50 Day SMA zone. This is my personal "guess" for the top of this rebound. I am looking to be 100% G if we hit these levels.
Probability of hitting: Good chance.

900 = Near 20 SMA. Will begin to lighten up > 900.
Probability of hitting: All but certain.

Now, the downside. I believe that if we break ABOVE 900...then 850 becomes very critical. Because, if we break down below 900 after going above, then break 850, then I believe we retest the lows of 741. In the case of breaking below 900...we would want a strong bounce off 850 to continue back up. My opinions anyway.:cheesy:
 
Corepuncher said:
I did some more analysis and here are my upside targets for the next couple months or so. I believe this is only a bear rally.

1150-1160 = Levels near the "bailout" vote.
Probability of hitting: Almost ZERO

1044 = High from 10/14.
Probability of hitting: Very low

1000-1010 = Strong resistance level 10/7-11/5. Also, top of Bollinger Band!
Probability of hitting: Low (Moderate if we are lucky).

950-960 = 50 Day SMA zone. This is my personal "guess" for the top of this rebound. I am looking to be 100% G if we hit these levels.
Probability of hitting: Good chance.

900 = Near 20 SMA. Will begin to lighten up > 900.
Probability of hitting: All but certain.

Now, the downside. I believe that if we break ABOVE 900...then 850 becomes very critical. Because, if we break down below 900 after going above, then break 850, then I believe we retest the lows of 741. In the case of breaking below 900...we would want a strong bounce off 850 to continue back up. My opinions anyway.:cheesy:
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Looks good to me.
 
My .02 is that I run a line from the Sept. high of 1265 to the Nov high of 1007 and extend it out and you don't get above 900. This in a way puts us on the same page for 900 but 950 to me is a real long push, that's another 5% plus push from 900.

Remember the BLS could not hit a bull in the a$$ with a banjo and they will revise the September nonfarm payroll number.
 
You could be right Show-Me. If we get a rally on Friday, it could be a gift because look at the data coming out. But as I type, we are 20 pts away from the 900 target...I think we'll hit it.

Next week has the jobs report on Friday. All kinds of other data as well. All expected to be bad. I"m gonna ride this wave a while longer. I don't think mutual funds can resist this historically strong seasonal period.

Anyway, I predict a better than expected black friday...after everyone is fat dumb and happy from thanksgiving, rejoicing in low gas prices and rallying!

PS...P&F chart just reversed to a bullish objective of 975
 
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