Corepuncher's Account Talk

[poolman]

Wow, so many birthday wishes! Thanks!

I still don't trust the market despite the "rally" today. That revised jobs number for Sept. was smoking death, and Oct. wasn't much better. Gonna get worse before it gets better. Lots of inflated capacity out there...which will have to deflate, along with jobs. I feel bad for people with REAL problems, like not having a job.

Man, I sure do feel Bad for the people with Real problem's myself. My Boss told me yesterday that "Don't expect a raise next year at all." He said He has "not had a raise in the last 3 year's". So I have been Hit in that regard. Sucks too. What am I going to do though. Just suck it up and be happy I have a job is all I can do. Job's are very scarce, Even the lower paying job's. Companies are laying people off Left and Right, If not completely going out of Business.

IMO, I think the Economy is going to get much worse. The Economy is feeding on itself now. Trust is very low and people are very nervous and cautious. People are very cautious about spending any amount of money.

What people used to spend money on, i.e. lawn service, gutter cleaning, pressure washing, even pool service They are doing themselves or not doing at all

 

[Birchtree]

The at risk class has figured out thanks to Gore that they can make more money by working less hours and collecting the earned income tax credit - they all know how to play the game.

 

[poolman]

Middle Class people are being hit hard. We go into work not knowing what will happen next. Story upon story is being told. And Boy do I hear stories. We service mainly Middle to Upper class folks.The Middle class around here is struggling to keep there lifestyles from being changed. The Upper class just bitch about the stock market and stop tipping, saying they are going to the poor house. They wait to tell you what is wrong with there pool at the time of closing. How arrogant. We are there to close the pool not start trouble shooting other things.

It is very obvious to me that we are in a recession. As far as Doom and Gloom --->

Yes it is best to buy when the Doom and Gloom is at it's Highest. I don't believe it is at it's highest. The Economic report's that keep coming in are only getting worse. Wall Street likes to look ahead (at least six month's) all the time. Nothing indicates that the economy is starting to turn up yet.
Therefore how can stock's go up?

Today's up day even with the crummy job's report was already priced in yesterday. Wall street does not want people to think that it is logical. It never has. That is why you have to price things in yourself but in order to do that you must watch, listen, and know how to do this the best that you can. It is almost like you must take everything you can into consideration and fair value it in advance. I actually try to do this most of the time. I think that we are almost at even keel for the start of Monday morning.

I hope I have made sense to some but this is how my twisted mind works.

 

[wv-girl]

Middle Class people are being hit hard. We go into work not knowing what will happen next. Story upon story is being told. And Boy do I hear stories. We service mainly Middle to Upper class folks.The Middle class around here is struggling to keep there lifestyles from being changed. The Upper class just bitch about the stock market and stop tipping, saying they are going to the poor house. They wait to tell you what is wrong with there pool at the time of closing. How arrogant. We are there to close the pool not start trouble shooting other things.

It is very obvious to me that we are in a recession. As far as Doom and Gloom --->

Yes it is best to buy when the Doom and Gloom is at it's Highest. I don't believe it is at it's highest. The Economic report's that keep coming in are only getting worse. Wall Street likes to look ahead (at least six month's) all the time. Nothing indicates that the economy is starting to turn up yet.
Therefore how can stock's go up?

Today's up day even with the crummy job's report was already priced in yesterday. Wall street does not want people to think that it is logical. It never has. That is why you have to price things in yourself but in order to do that you must watch, listen, and know how to do this the best that you can. It is almost like you must take everything you can into consideration and fair value it in advance. I actually try to do this most of the time. I think that we are almost at even keel for the start of Monday morning.

I hope I have made sense to some but this is how my twisted mind works.

I am not so sure that we even have a "middle" class anymore. I have always consider myself "upper poor". Enuff to get by but not enuff to get ahead--per se.

Btw, you make perfect sense to me--guess I have a twisted mind also. I almost jumped yesterday-for a 1 day trade- but boss came in with xtra work and a quick deadline, so I couldn't get back to evaluating whether I wanted to jump or not. So I missed an opportunity but there will be others.

 

[Corepuncher]

Show no mercy

Well, they caught the theives. They are 20 and 24, and actually live in Brookhaven (a nice area) with thier PARENTS! They are hooked on Oxycotin I guess, and have prior records! The first few times, their parents bailed them out! This time, they raised the bail so high that they cannot bail them out.

I'm going to show NO MERCY. They recovered a few of my things, but some things like family pictures and video are lost forever. Hopefully I will get some restitution and pay for my 1000 insurance deductable and other misc fees. But the real fun for me will come
afterwards when I attempt to SUE THEIR ASSES FOR ALL THEY ARE WORTH! I guess the car they used was a "black cadillac with nice wheels." Hmm, might I look good in a black caddy? As luck would have it, my neighbor is a lawyer, and will take my case.

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Corepuncher's Crystal Ball
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11/15 - Year end redemption deadline, maybe more forced selling.
????? - I believe the automakers will be "bailed out", errr, or the retired auto workers to be precise! This will probably result in some sort of a rally. Too much lobbying and pressure to not lose 2 million+ jobs! Obama will come out at some point and "save the day" with a "plan". It will result in a rally I believe but I will sell it. Question is when to get in. I may start nibbling once we drop into the 800s.
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STARS - Stock Analog System - No matches
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Updated Tracker COB 11/10/08
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2008 YTD Return: Method 1: -16.04% Method 2: -10.88
Today: +0.03%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Buy target 775-839
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For my own bookkeeping purposes:
50G/50C as of 908 = Break even buy 50% at S&P 719
If 100C as of 908 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 802
Sell other 50% at 950 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 857
Sell other 50% at 1000= Break even buy 100% at S&P 925
S&P goes up to 1146 by itself...I'm at break even at 50G 50C...yeah right!
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[nnuut]

Got the Bastards, as it should be!! May they rot in prison!!

 

[Braveheart]

Wow the 700 Billion worked great. What the USPS is laying off for the 1st time ever it is time to panic. 3 reasons this market will be junk.

1. No Jobs = No Hope

2. Huge Debt = No Change

3. Obama = No qualifications and panic means no investments

 

[Show-me]

Braveheart,

The USPS numbers peaked a few years ago around 2001. We are just very slow to compensate or react to the electronic age. USPS is ham strung by Congress and the public. We are a separate entity, like a GSE, that does not receive tax revenue to operate, but we can not make any decisions until it goes thought he Postal Board of Governors and/or Congress. We are a business that can not make business decision at all with out asking Big Brother. The same Big Brother that basis decisions on the voting public perception and not the truth or the facts.

 

[Birchtree]

Rather than putting those two young men in prison I'd arrange for them to be on probation and be forced to mow and trim my lawn weekly for the next year. Get a little work out of them - that creates an incentive to remain on the high road.

 

[Guest2]

I'd arrange for them to be on probation and be forced to mow and trim my lawn weekly for the next year. Get a little work out of them.

You just want to save alittle money, in lieu of, paying that lawn service.:toung:

 

[Corepuncher]

Rather than putting those two young men in prison I'd arrange for them to be on probation and be forced to mow and trim my lawn weekly for the next year. Get a little work out of them - that creates an incentive to remain on the high road.

Only if they could work in chains...I'm not letting those druggies near my house!

Since they enjoy taking things from people so much, I'm going to join in the fun and "take" from them everything I can.

 

[RonUSPSretired]

Braveheart,

The USPS numbers peaked a few years ago around 2001. We are just very slow to compensate or react to the electronic age. USPS is ham strung by Congress and the public. We are a separate entity, like a GSE, that does not receive tax revenue to operate, but we can not make any decisions until it goes thought he Postal Board of Governors and/or Congress. We are a business that can not make business decision at all with out asking Big Brother. The same Big Brother that basis decisions on the voting public perception and not the truth or the facts.

The tricle down from the above is why I retired early and a lot of other small town Postmasters have done the same. We got tired of the stress from always having to do more with less. Mid-level and clerical positions were eliminated at the District level and the tasks were given to the postmasters with no additional hours or resources. Because we are "separate" when the powers that be had $ to give the USPS didn't get it. When they need $ for their Pork barrell projects they took it. I'm still pissed!!

 

[Corepuncher]

Look at the IRX...it continues to drift down in a controlled manner.

As such this cannot be attributed to "fear", but rather a deliberate and thoughtful reaction to deteriorating market conditions.

There is so much confusion and uncertainty out there, we are PRIMED for another panic type sell-off. I'm shooting for 775-839 as a buy in range...at least for the short term.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/656-How-Do-You-Spell-Liquidity-Trap.html

 

[Corepuncher]

Well, went 50% C COB Today. Might not be the bottom, but aside from a bond market dislocation and crashing dollar, I don't think we are headed for a depression just yet. The market is heavily discounting a recession already...and I assume "they" will bailout the autos...or, at least say something that makes the short cover in the near term.

See we just broke down through major support to new lows. How low will we go? And, will tomorrow be lower? Could be. May go all in tomorrow if we continue downward towards my 775 target.

PS...My attorney just informed me that one of the houses that got broken into was that of the DA! HA!

 

[350zCommTech]

Well, went 50% C COB Today. Might not be the bottom, but aside from a bond market dislocation and crashing dollar, I don't think we are headed for a depression just yet.

Bond market dislocation indeed. My guess is China didn't buy today. They got problems at home. I'm stuck in the F fund and getting the royal treatment.

Good luck tomorrow.

 

[Corepuncher]

Well it looks like a good retest and perhaps it will hold for a while. Am 50% in and not sure if I want to risk the other 50%...especially since we could end up closing a bit higher today. So, I will likely hold my 50/50 stance.


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STARS - Stock Analog System - No matches
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Updated Tracker COB 11/13/08
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2008 YTD Return: Method 1: -16.01% Method 2: -10.85
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 50C 50G
Tentative Next Move: Buy target...may just sit tight at this level.
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For my own bookkeeping purposes:
50G/50C as of 908 = Break even buy 50% at S&P 719
If 100C as of 908 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 802
Sell other 50% at 950 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 857
Sell other 50% at 1000= Break even buy 100% at S&P 925
S&P goes up to 1146 by itself...I'm at break even at 50G 50C...yeah right!
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[Corepuncher]

------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher's Crystal Ball
------------------------------------------------------------
The Weeks ahead - I'm sort of at a loss as to what to think when I look at the economic calender. It's almost as if we all know it's going to be bad...so almost nothing will surprise IMO. I think the key will be the fate of GM...and after seeing what happened when Lehman was allowed to fail, surely "they" will not let this happen to GM without a fight at least? Plus, GM is an American company with American workers...good blue collar folk, not the "evil pigmen" from wall street financial firms. Letting GM fail, or at least the "illusion" of "letting" them fail without trying to help at least...is political suicide. Where is our savior, the chosen one, Mr. Obama?


I do like the low gas prices...soon to be break 1.70 here in OK I imagine. That will help pick up the slack with consumer spending and spread holiday cheer! I'm looking for a rally.
------------------------------------------------------------
STARS - Stock Analog System - No matches
------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 11/14/08
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2008 YTD Return: Method 1: -18.09% Method 2: -12.93
Today: -2.08%
Current Allocation: 50C 50G
Tentative Next Move: Looking to sell into strength. S&P 1000 is a solid target to attain. If I do lighten up , it may be before the week of Dec 1st when we get jobs data for Nov...that always is SCARY!
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[Corepuncher]

Hey I was just looking at some old stuff...I guess my prediction last August was "OK". Not to toot my own horn, but I just thought the picture was funny!

 

[Corepuncher]

I went into the TSP and found my balance on 1/1/08 (X).

Then, I went into employee express and found out how much I (and matching) have contributed to my account YTD (Y). That would be my contributions plus an extra 5%. So my latest YTD return is:

(X-Y)/X = -15.47%.

The funny thing is...that is almost exactly what the tsp tracker has for my return...at first it was wrong but with time I guess either it was calculating wrong, or I am calculating wrong. Anyway, I think the above equation should be the easiest way to double check your return YTD. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I wasn't sure if I should have started the "YTD" from the 12/31/07 balance, or the 1/1/08 balance. Anyone know?

------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 11/14/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: Method 1: -15.47%
Today: -2.08%
Current Allocation: 50C 50G
Tentative Next Move: Looking to sell into strength. S&P 1000 is a solid target to attain. If I do lighten up , it may be before the week of Dec 1st when we get jobs data for Nov...that always is SCARY!
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[TRAFFIC_DOG]

I went into the TSP and found my balance on 1/1/08 (X).

Then, I went into employee express and found out how much I (and matching) have contributed to my account YTD (Y). That would be my contributions plus an extra 5%. So my latest YTD return is:

(X-Y)/X = -15.47%.

The funny thing is...that is almost exactly what the tsp tracker has for my return...at first it was wrong but with time I guess either it was calculating wrong, or I am calculating wrong. Anyway, I think the above equation should be the easiest way to double check your return YTD. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I wasn't sure if I should have started the "YTD" from the 12/31/07 balance, or the 1/1/08 balance. Anyone know?

CP, I believe it sould be:

(Balance as of COB 12/31/07 ..... plus ..... all funds added to date)

minus - current balance

Take that number divided by the original 12/31/07 balance= YTD return


That's how I figure mine, anyway.

It's close to .... but not exact, owing for the fact that exact losses on biweekly added funds to the account aren't easliy figured.