Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

CP, I believe it sould be:

(Balance as of COB 12/31/07 ..... plus ..... all funds added to date)

minus - current balance

Take that number divided by the original 12/31/07 balance= YTD return


That's how I figure mine, anyway.

It's close to .... but not exact, owing for the fact that exact losses on biweekly added funds to the account aren't easliy figured.

DUH! I calculated it right but wrote it down here wrong. Begin balance + contributions = "what you should have". Take that - current balance, divide by original = YTD. That's what happens when you have 1 year old wanting to watch choo-choos on your lap!

I'm pretty nervous about being 100% in...I'm going against several of my rules...the bollinger band rule (which we just hit) and my new 50% rule..which states as long as we are in such volatile bear market times, only risk 50% at most...keep the other 50 in G. I guess it's the gambler in me...

 

[momacs]

could you tell me what employee express is. thanks

 

[presskh]

could you tell me what employee express is. thanks

That's where you go now to get your pay stubs and change information about yourself, if you are a federal employee.

 

[presskh]

DUH! I calculated it right but wrote it down here wrong. Begin balance + contributions = "what you should have". Take that - current balance, divide by original = YTD. That's what happens when you have 1 year old wanting to watch choo-choos on your lap!

I'm pretty nervous about being 100% in...I'm going against several of my rules...the bollinger band rule (which we just hit) and my new 50% rule..which states as long as we are in such volatile bear market times, only risk 50% at most...keep the other 50 in G. I guess it's the gambler in me...

Best "approximate" rate of return calcs:

today's balance - (12/31/07 beginning balance + YTD contributions) = net profit

(net profit/(12/31/07 beginnning balance + 1/2 YTD contributions)) x 100 = approximate YTD % rate of return

If you do not add the "1/2 YTD contributions" in the denominator of the second equation, you will overestimate your returns.

 

[ATCJeff]

could you tell me what employee express is. thanks

www.employeeexpress.gov

 

[Corepuncher]

Best "approximate" rate of return calcs:

today's balance - (12/31/07 beginning balance + YTD contributions) = net profit

(net profit/(12/31/07 beginnning balance + 1/2 YTD contributions)) x 100 = approximate YTD % rate of return

If you do not add the "1/2 YTD contributions" in the denominator of the second equation, you will overestimate your returns.

Ahhh...good catch. I was not accounting for the fact that the contributions are losing value as well. The 1/2 in your equation basically splits the difference. In that case instead of -15.47, I'm -16.44.

Switching gears...hey, futures turned around and are green at last check. Good deal. Really, 770-818 should be the floor UNTIL a nuclear bomb goes off like GM and FORD imploding or something. Lets hope for holiday cheer given very low gas prices...I know I am very cheerful when I get gas now!!! How about a cheerful rally back to 1100!

------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 11/16/08
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2008 YTD Return: Method 1: -16.44%
Today: -2.08%
Current Allocation: 100C
Tentative Next Move: Looking to sell into strength. S&P 1000 is a solid target to attain. If I do lighten up , it may be before the week of Dec 1st when we get jobs data for Nov...that always is SCARY!
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[Corepuncher]

IMO...the markets will hold the 2002 lows (upper 700s) and it may have already put in a low for now. Really, it boils down to whether or not this recession is going to be the worse ever and/or a depression. Until there is indisputable evidence that it WILL or WILL NOT be that way, the markets will look to the past few bear markets for guidance. Based on those, we should be near a bottom. What we need is a panic rally...more than a couple days....with 2 or 3 big legs up. 1040ish is certainly within reach and will be strong resistance at the 50 day ma.

 

[Corepuncher]

I think there is a solid chance of another short squeeze rally into the close today. Lets close above 915 on the S&P.

850...a tough nut to crack INDEED!

 

[Birchtree]

The 2002 lows are near 775 for the SPX.

 

[ATCJeff]

1040ish is certainly within reach and will be strong resistance at the 50 day ma.

I think there is a solid chance of another short squeeze rally into the close today. Lets close above 915 on the S&P.

850...a tough nut to crack INDEED!

Can I have the 1040 and a beer please?

 

[Corepuncher]

I just reinstalled windows and realized that it will DELETE any files you have on your DESKTOP...which for me means ALL my stock market spreadsheets and programs. I had it backed up on my laptop, but they ERASED THE DAMN THING! MAN I AM PISSED...hundreds of hours gone.

 

[kar_crazy]

Can I have the 1040 and a beer please?

i have plenty of beer over here, but it aint helping my tsp but i do feel better, and sleep alot better:nuts:

 

[Corepuncher]

The IRX (13 week t bill) continues to drop in price:

Then Denninger posts graphs like this and gets me all scared:

------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 11/18/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: Method 1: -17.97%
Today: +1.03%
Current Allocation: 100C
Tentative Next Move: I don't like being 100% in the market. It was a mistake. A close > 873 and I'm selling 50%. > 911 I"m selling it all.
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[Corepuncher]

I think there is a flaw in the way the tracker works. Today it says I am down -6.11%...exactly what the C fund showed. So, that -6.11% was added to my yearly return. But that is not correct because i was already down 15.88%...so applying the -6.11% to the 15.88% that was already lost is not correct. I think it should be -6.11 * (1.00 - .1588) = -5.14%.

To take the extreme view...if the market went down 50% 2 days in a row, you are not down "-100%"...which is what would happen if you just add the daily returns. You would be down 75%.

Maybe I already missed this discussion...so sorry if I"m reinventing the wheel but you should know that adding each daily return does NOT mimic what % you are down total from your starting point.

 

[Corepuncher]

I really think the 2002 lows in the 770s will hold and we will bounce quickly back into the mid/upper 800s if not 900s. Low gas prices will combine with holiday cheer to produce a sudden rally for no apparent reason. rock on. When this rally occurs, I would start getting out 900 or above...because next year there will be hell to pay with jobs losses and deflation. I actually like deflation being a Govt. worker! They never vote themselves a pay decrease! :toung:

 

[JTH]

I really think the 2002 lows in the 770s will hold and we will bounce quickly back into the mid/upper 800s if not 900s.

Heh eh hehhe

Any lower and I may have to jump back in just to accumulate the same number of shares I had when I peaked...

 

[justbizness45]

I really think the 2002 lows in the 770s will hold and we will bounce quickly back into the mid/upper 800s if not 900s. Low gas prices will combine with holiday cheer to produce a sudden rally for no apparent reason. rock on. When this rally occurs, I would start getting out 900 or above...because next year there will be hell to pay with jobs losses and deflation. I actually like deflation being a Govt. worker! They never vote themselves a pay decrease! :toung:

Wow, looks like interday broke below 770. :blink: Do you still think the S&P will remain above? Or do you think we are going to continue down through turkey day?

 

[Birchtree]

In terms of the DJIA - the 7500 area is the March 2003 low. The 2002 closing low was 7286 and the Asian contagion (1997) bottom was 7161. Take your pick it's all relevant.

 

[Corepuncher]

I give up. Waving the white flag! But might as well stay in C and DCA. I'm down 27% YTD but hey I'm beating the "market" by over 20% and fully invested. Something to be happy about. I feel like with my job and such, I'm as immune to this economy as anyone can be, and very thankful.

 

[JTH]

Don't feel too bad there CP. Your logic has always been sound. Problem is this market is acting like an emotional irrational women. You can't argue with it, all you can do is say "yes dear" or move into the dog house... :suspicious: