Corepuncher's Account Talk

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Here is my take...

Everyone "expects" this massive bear rally now. I would take note of all the key levels everyone says, and then low ball it and get out then. Because you know, that with each day the market goes up, the finger on the trigger is going to become very, very unstable...and when it breaks, it will come down hard. I see two scenarios..

1) We gradually rise, then have a big down day, taking back much of the gains. Then, we rebound rather quickly the day after.

2) We gradually rise, then, have a bid down day. The rebound gets sold off and there is another big drop and we retest the lows.

Also, I don't think the auto makers will come up with anything good next week. Did you see those guys talk? They are fricken clueless! They fly in on their jets and then ask congress for money. Judging from how they voted down the FIRST bailout...I am pretty confident that they will not give the autos any money without a good plan for the future. Do you really think those guys are smart enough to come up with something good to sell congress? They come in, spelling out "impending doom" for our country if they do not get their money. Has congress heard that before recently? Maybe from Paulson and Bernanke?? Hmmm....

These guys have no idea how to pull themselves out of this hole. If they did, their business would not be in dire straits. I think they will give something to congress on December 2nd.

Bottom line...I think autos are going bankrupt. Jobs will be lost. All bad. When to sell? I suggest selling before December 2nd. Just an opinion. Hey...whats the chance that if you sell at S&P 900...you will not be able to buy lower? We are also at the end of November...and next week is December! Good time to SELL, don't you think? Or do you want to bet on a 7 day rally in a bear market with no good news and possible auto bankruptcy?? I am hoping for an up day on Friday. If that happens...and I sort of expect it to...I will sell 50%. If not, I may sell 50% on Monday...hoping that over the weekend, people made a "list" and are ready to buy.

Key levels: (current = 887)

50 Day SMA: 970
20 Day SMA 890
Upper Bollinger: 1020
P&F charts: 990
TV Guys: 950 ish

Previous recent highs: 1044, 1007, 911
 
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Core when are you getting out? My thinking is I'll let it ride into next week. If I can grab 1-2% starting Monday, I'll exit.
 
ATCJeff said:
Core when are you getting out? My thinking is I'll let it ride into next week. If I can grab 1-2% starting Monday, I'll exit.
Click to expand...

Well crap. I put in a request to sell 50% today...but then changed my mind as to the amount. Problem is...even though the initial IFT was before the deadline, when I did a "change this request", it went AFTER the deadline. You would think it would keep the original one, but no...it actually cancelled my good one. Oh well. If we are up Monday, I suppose I will be happy! Seems like these happenstance moves end up working better than the planned ones anyway! :)

The reason I wanted to sell some was because IRX is going down, people are buying bonds today. Look at the 10 year...2.95%. Mortgage rates should be at all time lows but they are not. I want 5.00% 30 yr fixed and I will refi.

Autos are screwed. I sure hope we can get some more pop on Monday...because the rest of the week could be bleak indeed!
 
Corepuncher said:
Well crap. I put in a request to sell 50% today...but then changed my mind as to the amount. Problem is...even though the initial IFT was before the deadline, when I did a "change this request", it went AFTER the deadline. You would think it would keep the original one, but no...it actually cancelled my good one. Oh well. If we are up Monday, I suppose I will be happy! Seems like these happenstance moves end up working better than the planned ones anyway! :)

The reason I wanted to sell some was because IRX is going down, people are buying bonds today. Look at the 10 year...2.95%. Mortgage rates should be at all time lows but they are not. I want 5.00% 30 yr fixed and I will refi.

Autos are screwed. I sure hope we can get some more pop on Monday...because the rest of the week could be bleak indeed!
Click to expand...

Never heard of the IFT situation you experienced.

Wish I could refi my 5 7/8 but I only owe 55K. I was told I would have to take alot of cash to refi.
 
I think everyone should keep in mind that this auto "bailout" may experience problems which could cause the market to suddenly turn south.

The market is acting as though the bailout is certain. First of all, look what happened last time we thought there was going to be a bailout. There is lots of opposition to it this time as well...so be careful. It could be that we are NOW rallying on the auto bailout...before it even happens! Look at FORD and GM today.

They have to give them a plan by Dec 2nd, and they look it over the week of Dec 8th as I understand it. Therefore...if we continue the rally this week...please consider selling into it. Even if the bailout is passed right away, there will be concessions that will not be good for the economy...(still massive job losses...etc).

My take is that they NEED to go into bankruptcy so that they CAN restructure...those unions are killing them! Maybe once they drop some shackles.
 
12% Where are you? Watch for the reversal today :-)

Technically a pullback is expected. I still think this rally has legs to 940-960. Not going to freak out and sell yet.

The auto makers deal could be a sell on the news event though...so be prepared! There will be disappointment.
 
Are we building a bond bubble now?? 10 yr down to 2.83%. If this bubble bursts...it will not be pretty.

Damn that stupid TSP website. I sold Friday before the deadline, and it let me make a change with 1 min to do but the clock flipped while I was doing the change, and it overrode my good change which met the deadline. I could have bought back lower today. :mad::mad::mad:
 
Corepuncher said:
Are we building a bond bubble now?? 10 yr down to 2.83%. If this bubble bursts...it will not be pretty.

Damn that stupid TSP website. I sold Friday before the deadline, and it let me make a change with 1 min to do but the clock flipped while I was doing the change, and it overrode my good change which met the deadline. I could have bought back lower today. :mad::mad::mad:
Click to expand...

I always try to attempt the IFT at about 11:45. If something screws up with the website, then you have time to make a quick phone call to place your IFT. 1 minute makes a big difference to FRTIB. The noon IFT is a cruel joke.:suspicious:
 
The market seems to have drawn a line in the sand around 850 on the S&P. Low gas prices, the possibility of sub 5% mortgage rates...an auto "bailout" and Obama inaguration...all seems like we could see 950 or even 1000.
 
My initial target to sell is 900-930. If we happen to gain some momentum volume-wise...then maybe 950. Further, if the $IRX comes dramatically off it's lows...then I will feel much safer about this and may look to sell > 950, perhaps testing 1000 on the S&P.

But if we run out of volume...basically a lack of sellers at these levels...but also buyers run out...that is when I want to run back out. I feel jobs will continue to get much worse over the next few months. Once the good feeling from low gas prices and low mortgage rates passes, it will be bombs away once again as the economy continues to spiral downward. This ain't over...and predictions of a fall of 2009 turnaround may be premature.
 
Corepuncher said:
My initial target to sell is 900-930. If we happen to gain some momentum volume-wise...then maybe 950. Further, if the $IRX comes dramatically off it's lows...then I will feel much safer about this and may look to sell > 950, perhaps testing 1000 on the S&P.

But if we run out of volume...basically a lack of sellers at these levels...but also buyers run out...that is when I want to run back out. I feel jobs will continue to get much worse over the next few months. Once the good feeling from low gas prices and low mortgage rates passes, it will be bombs away once again as the economy continues to spiral downward. This ain't over...and predictions of a fall of 2009 turnaround may be premature.
Click to expand...

1000 would be nice. The turnaround will not happen until Spring 2010!
 
This is scary stuff if true. Talks about how gold went into backwardation...meaning people were forgoing GUARANTEED profits by selling gold now and buying it back cheaper in a month. This could get worse and eventually mean that gold will not be for sale an any price.

A quote from the first article:

"December 2 is a landmark, because before that date the monetary system could have been saved by opening the U.S. Mint to gold. Now, given the fact of gold backwardation, it is too late. The last chance to avoid disaster has been missed. The proverbial last straw has broken the back of the camel.
I have often been told that the U.S. Mint is already open to gold, witness the Eagle and Buffalo gold coins. But these issues were neither unlimited, nor were they coined free of seigniorage. They were sold at a premium over bullion content. They were a red herring, dropped to make people believe that gold coins can always be obtained from the U.S. Mint, and from other government mints of the world. However, as the experience of the past two or three months shows, one mint after another stopped taking orders for gold coins and suspended their gold operations. The reason is that the flow of gold to the mints has become erratic. It may dry up altogether. This shows that the foreboding has been evoked by the looming gold backwardation, way ahead of the event. Now the truth is out: you can no longer coax gold out of hiding with paper profits.
If the governments of the great trading nations had really wanted to save the world from a catastrophic collapse of world trade, then they should have opened their mints to gold. Now gold backwardation has caught up with us and shut down the free flow of gold in the system. This will have catastrophic consequences. Few people realize that the shutting down of the gold trade, which is what is happening, means the shutting down of world trade. This is a financial earthquake measuring ten on the Greenspan scale, with epicenter at the Comex in New York, where the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center once stood. It is no exaggeration to say that this event will trigger a tsunami wiping out the prosperity of the world."


http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7639.html

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228633980.php
 
You guys are talking sports after post 1253?? I would have thought the discussion would be about Mossbergs.:worried:
 
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