Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher's Crystal Ball
------------------------------------------------------------
11/7 - Not only my birthday, but the October Employment Report is sure to engender warm fuzzies in all who behold it! Why would anyone want to be long ahead of this?

11/15 - Year end redemption deadline, maybe more forced selling.
------------------------------------------------------------
STARS - Stock Analog System - No matches
------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 11/03/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: -16.11%, -10.95 (new method and original method...one has to be correct!)
Today: +0.03%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Buy target 775-839 to put in 50% C...save other 50% for lower value.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

For my own bookkeeping purposes:
50G/50C as of 908 = Break even buy 50% at S&P 719
If 100C as of 908 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 802
Sell other 50% at 950 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 857
Sell other 50% at 1000= Break even buy 100% at S&P 925
S&P goes up to 1146 by itself...I'm at break even at 50G 50C...yeah right!
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

11/7 - not only my birthday

Have The Happiest of Birthdays CP !

 

[Corepuncher]

Have The Happiest of Birthdays CP !

Thanks Squalebear. For my birthday, I want the S&P to dip below 900.

 

[Corepuncher]

'nuff said!

From: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081103/financial_meltdown.html

"Major Wall Street bond traders estimate the government's borrowing needs for the whole year will total an unprecedented $1.4 trillion."

----------------------------------------------------------------

Hmm...ok. Now lets do some math.

From Wikipedia:

Public debt$10.53 trillion (October 2008) 70% of GDP
Revenues$2.523 trillion (2008)
Expenses$3.150 trillion (2008)

So, we "make" 2.523 trillion a year, but this year alone we will borrow 1.4 trillion. Ok. That comes out to 55.5% of our "annual income."

At the same time, our yearly "expenses" total 125% of our annual income.

Finally: "foreign holdings of government debt currently amount to about 27% of the total, or some 2 trillion dollars"

To put this in perspective:

You make 100,000 per year.
You spend 125,000 per year.
Your credit card is maxed out to the limit at 417,360.

Nonetheless, you just took out another loan for 55,489 since your roof is leaking and you need a new car.

The "bank" could, if they wanted to, demand you pay them back 79,270 at once.


It is painfully obvious that "you" WILL NEVER GET YOUR DEBT PAID OFF. IT IS NOT A MATTER OF IF YOU GO BANKRUPT...IT IS A MATTER OF WHEN.

You "hope" that foreigners will continue to lend money to you to keep the "scheme" alive. As long as the money keeps pouring in, your interest rates stay artificially low, and the dollar is strong.

HEY..SOUNDS LIKE A STABLE SITUATION TO ME!! SCARY S*&T MY FRIENDS. AND MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SUSTAIN.

 

[DrFaustus]

No problem ... we'll just deflate the dollar and pay them off with that.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but a large part of this debt doesn't exist, per se. It is money that we owe to ourselves. ie, if Congress borrows from the Social Security fund to pay for the Titanic Recovery Act, they carry the amount borrowed from Social Security (and the interest owed on it) as a debt owed to that account.

Now I don't know any individual who does this. Let's say I make up a budget at the beginning of the year and I allocate $100 to X fund and $100 to Y. During the year, I spend $120 on Y ... so I borrow $20 from X to cover it. So if I didn't spend anything else on X during the year, I am ahead by $80 in the next year.

But not the way the gov't figures it. According to the gov't, my X fund is down $20, therefore I have a $20 debt to pay. Who does that??

What I think we should do is figure out how much of this money we owe to ourselves and just say 'the hell with trying to 'pay it back'. But of course that isn't going to happen.

 

[fabijo]

Re: 'nuff said!

HEY..SOUNDS LIKE A STABLE SITUATION TO ME!! SCARY S*&T MY FRIENDS. AND MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SUSTAIN.

Corepuncher - thanks for the awesome breakdown of the figures. It's true, the only way someone could pay that off would be to starve themselves completely while ONLY paying debt and no necessities. You'll die in the process, which is what's going to happen.

It reminds me of a vision King Nebuchadnezzar had, where he saw a statue. He represented the head of gold. The next kingdom represented a torso of silver. And on the way down until the feet represented a kingdom made out of clay and iron - the cheapest stuff.

Each generation built their wealth off the debt of the future generation. At some point, a generation will come where the debt is too great and the load too large to sustain. The whole statue will come crashing down. We may be getting that generation. Pretty scary.

 

[KevinD]

And when Obama isn't able to fix it it'll be all George Bush's fault...

 

[dannyboy]

Re: 'nuff said!

Corepuncher - thanks for the awesome breakdown of the figures. It's true, the only way someone could pay that off would be to starve themselves completely while ONLY paying debt and no necessities. You'll die in the process, which is what's going to happen.

It reminds me of a vision King Nebuchadnezzar had, where he saw a statue. He represented the head of gold. The next kingdom represented a torso of silver. And on the way down until the feet represented a kingdom made out of clay and iron - the cheapest stuff.

Each generation built their wealth off the debt of the future generation. At some point, a generation will come where the debt is too great and the load too large to sustain. The whole statue will come crashing down. We may be getting that generation. Pretty scary.

Don't you like the thought of eating grass in the fields like a wild animal for awhile? That would help you lose weight much faster than a Jenny Craig diet?

 

[Corepuncher]

One of my friends wrote me this in response:

The tricky thing though is that all our debt is in dollars, whereas many of the bankrupt defaults are caused when local currency flounders in hyperinflation and debt is denominated in dollars. it is hard to say what happens to us because if we go into hyperinflation, our debt all of a sudden becomes of no value because it is denominated in the hyper-inflationary currency. it is truly a situation no one has seen before.

our debt holders do not want to see the decline of their held treasuries value approach 0 because it will have the same effect on them as an uninsured bank going under, a total loss. the failure of the US in the form of default or dollar collapse would take the world down, we are talking collapse of Rome proportions and a new dark age. unless there is someone out there who can stop it. the only thing i could say that could, would be an economy larger than ours, which china is trying to obtain, but even at a 10% annual growth rate would take a lot longer than we likely have remaining before that day comes.

 

[Corepuncher]

I'm looking for people to feel sorry for me.

Yesterday, our house was broken into in broad daylight. My wife and son left, then somebody broke through a window in the back of the house, then stole about 5500 dollars worth of electronics, as well as family pictures on those electronics. So we have to pay a 1000 dollar deductible.

Today, we just got hit with a hail storm. W facing windows blown out. Another deductible we have to pay. Oh...and our budget is tight because my wife's employer just died last week and she went without pay.

On the bright side...at least the market is tanking and I am out. "ha-ha"

 

[fabijo]

I'm looking for people to feel sorry for me.

Yesterday, our house was broken into in broad daylight. My wife and son left, then somebody broke through a window in the back of the house, then stole about 5500 dollars worth of electronics, as well as family pictures on those electronics. So we have to pay a 1000 dollar deductible.

Today, we just got hit with a hail storm. W facing windows blown out. Another deductible we have to pay. Oh...and our budget is tight because my wife's employer just died last week and she went without pay.

On the bright side...at least the market is tanking and I am out. "ha-ha"

Man, sorry to hear about all that, Core. It's never just one thing, is it? When one thing comes, a whole wave of things come. I hope you guys figure out who did it. I'd imagine it was someone who knew you, even just a little.

 

[Corepuncher]

Man, sorry to hear about all that, Core. It's never just one thing, is it? When one thing comes, a whole wave of things come. I hope you guys figure out who did it. I'd imagine it was someone who knew you, even just a little.

The cops said they did another neighborhood an hour after our house, and the day before, they think the same person did another neighborhood. Some dude in a black caddy with nice wheels...they were caught on a webcam. Don't know them...luckily I guess because I would have taken a baseball bat to their head. :cheesy:

Anyway, I might have to take out a TSP loan just to pay my fricken deductibles! Argh!

 

[poolman]

The cops said they did another neighborhood an hour after our house, and the day before, they think the same person did another neighborhood. Some dude in a black caddy with nice wheels...they were caught on a webcam. Don't know them...luckily I guess because I would have taken a baseball bat to their head. :cheesy:

Anyway, I might have to take out a TSP loan just to pay my fricken deductibles! Argh!

My Wife caught my boss's son (18) trying to steal my Streetpilot 7200 GPS out of my Work Van 2 weeks ago.

It's Rough It's tough out here in this economy.

We are getting ADT.

 

[Guest2]

CP, I'm very sorry to hear the weight on your shoulders has increased.
Not much can be done about Mother Nature's twisted sense of humor.

Then again, there's not much we can do about the weather either.

Chin up my friend, this too shall pass !

 

[PessOptimist]

I don't know you but do feel your pain.

Same thing happened to me in Ohio years ago. Not only is there the loss, some not replaceable, but the hassle, deductibles and feeling of having been violated.

Good luck.

 

[KevinD]

Sorry to hear the bad news Core. I hate a thief.

 

[ATCJeff]

Core,

You should be chasing today....

 

[nnuut]

Damn CP! I hate crooks. It's been a long time sense that happened to me, makes you feel venerable in your own house. They say bad luck comes in threes so you might be through. The cops won't do a thing from my experience. They need to be locked up, they will be hitting the neighbors next!!

 

[wv-girl]

Hi CP,
I, too, am sorry to hear about your misfortune. But sometimes bad things happen to good people. Try to find a positive ..like... it could have been worse. What if you wife and son had been home and the unthinkable happened? God forbid. I know it puts a hardship on you, but it is fixable. Material possessions can be replaced. And the people doing the bad deeds will pay in some form or another.

 

[Birchtree]

Ya, there're home now celebrating the Nobama win with a nice stereo sound. You need a dog.