Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Market Barometers - with weights

Gold = Up despite threat of DEFLATION in the near term. Bad(1).

IRX 13 week T's = coming back down into the "safe haven" zone...despite (assumably) increasing supply issued by treasury. Bad(1).

10 and 30 yr bonds = Sold hard today...too bad that makes mortgage rates RISE back up! Watch and see if this trend continues...I think it will. Bad (3).

VIX = CLOSED at 79. ouch. Expect some crazy sht next week. Bad(3).

Technicals: Spent most of the day below the key 900 level. Lower highs, lower lows...and possible bear flag. Bad (2).

US dollar was UP hard again, new 52 wk high. Rocket shot. Good (1)

TED and 2 yr swap spreads as well as LIBOR (ON) were UP. Bad(2).

1 and 3 month LIBOR was slightly DOWN. Good. (1)

Energy prices down. Good (3).

Bad = 12
Good = 5

The bads have it.

 

[Corepuncher]

------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher's Crystal Ball -NEW!
------------------------------------------------------------
Possible Big down days:
10/27 - Follow-through from Friday + New Home sales disappoint).
10/29 - FOMC Meeting...SURE to disappoint).
11/7 - Not only my birthday, but the October Employment Report is sure to engender warm fuzzies in all who behold it!
------------------------------------------------------------
STARS - Stock Analog System - No matches
------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 10/24/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: -14.85%
Today: -1.73%
Current Allocation: 50C 50G
Tentative Next Move: Sell the rips, buy the crashes > 11/3.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

For my own bookkeeping purposes:
50G/50C as of 908 = Break even buy 50% at S&P 719
If 100C as of 908 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 802
Sell other 50% at 950 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 857
Sell other 50% at 1000= Break even buy 100% at S&P 925
S&P goes up to 1146 by itself...I'm at break even at 50G 50C...yeah right!
----------------------------------------------------------------------​

 

[Rod]

I like it!

BUT, you have to edit your "Possible Big down days" to every day!

 

[Corepuncher]

Guess I can add one more thing. Similar to RunningFool, I calculated some leaderboard stats.

The following is a return-weighted allocation. The who knows HOW you should weight it, it depends on how much better you think 10% is than 5%, etc.

I first normalized the returns so that last place is zero...by subtracting the worst return from everyone's own return. That gives first place a 67.17, and last place a zero. But those are not "good" weights, because a +16.76% return (a 67) is MORE than twice as good as a -16% (a 32)...so, I cubed each of those values, then divided those values by the sums of the cubes. The resulting allocation is...

G 77.42
F 6.86
C 7.95
S 3.24
I 1.13
L40 0.84
L30 0.13
L20 0.24
L10 0.85
INC 1.33​

 

[Corepuncher]

Guess I can add one more thing. Similar to RunningFool, I calculated some leaderboard stats.

The following is a return-weighted allocation. The who knows HOW you should weight it, it depends on how much better you think 10% is than 5%, etc.

I first normalized the returns so that last place is zero...by subtracting the worst return from everyone's own return. That gives first place a 67.17, and last place a zero. But those are not "good" weights, because a +16.76% return (a 67) is MORE than twice as good as a -16% (a 32)...so, I cubed each of those values, then divided those values by the sums of the cubes. The resulting allocation is...

G 77.42
F 6.86
C 7.95
S 3.24
I 1.13
L40 0.84
L30 0.13
L20 0.24
L10 0.85

INC 1.33​

Some more interesting facts...

Adjusted for inflation, we will meet the 2002 bear market low at S&P 844.

Adjusted for inflation, today's S&P value, in dollar value, is like 1995 when the S&P was in the mid 500's. So actual value-wise, we are back to 1995. 13 years of DCA gone. Buy and Hold! Yeah right.

Food for thought.

 

[Corepuncher]

Roubini says we go down another 20-30% based on FUNDAMENTALS...let alone any panic.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vvV5lDr_BAkw.asf

Cred: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html

Just think...if everyone sold TODAY at 876 (seemingly, a very LOW number), and bought back in at 720 (conservative estimate)...when the market goes back up to 876, you just gained 22%. If you sell today at 876 and buy back at 600, you would return 46% just getting back to 876. S&P 500...you gain 75% just returning to 876!

 

[Rod]

Some more interesting facts...

Adjusted for inflation, we will meet the 2002 bear market low at S&P 844.

Adjusted for inflation, today's S&P value, in dollar value, is like 1995 when the S&P was in the mid 500's. So actual value-wise, we are back to 1995. 13 years of DCA gone. Buy and Hold! Yeah right.

Food for thought.

Like I said before, it's like going back into time and buying CHEAP!

Yeah, I believe buy-n-hold is out the window for most. They won't trust the market anymore. At least this will force Americans to educate themselves on the market and take control of their investments instead of paying a stranger to do it.

 

[Corepuncher]

Steve Grasso at the NYSE said that November 15th is some sort of hedge fund redeption date for years end. It sounds to me that there is absolutley no reason to buy before that date, especially if you think there will be more forced selling at or after 11/15.

In the meantime, there are more downward catalysts in play. Also, there are MANY negative feedback loops in full effect, including commodities going down, currency trades, etc etc.

If we happen to rally above 900 in the next week or so, I'll be a seller into it. Otherwise, I'll sit back and wait.

 

[Corepuncher]

Some quotes from KD's blog today below. Agree with him, and if I had to choose between his 760ish and 839, I am going to choose the 760 ish because I think we will break 839 soon.

Further, the average S&P point range has been 51 pts over the past 5 days; 65 pts over the past 10 days. If 882 was our high today, then -51 = 831, -65 = 827...both below the triangle base support.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"For today, watch the key level of 839 in the SPX and, if it fails, watch the 760ish level, the 2002/03 Bear Market bottom.

Below there the abyss beckons, and the smell of sulfur has been detected wafting upward; if I had to take a bet here it would be that we're likely to get a bounce either here or off the 760ish level that will likely go into the end of the year - then reality hits on all the Treasury Supply in the form of much higher real interest rates, along with the dislocation in the broader economy and job environment.

As such I rate the odds of the 02/03 bear market bottom holding through next year as essentially zero, and "investing for the long haul" (as opposed to trading this market) is, at this juncture, idiotic."

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/629-Manic-Monday-1027.html

 

[Corepuncher]

------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher's Crystal Ball -NEW!
------------------------------------------------------------
Possible Big down days:

10/29 - FOMC Meeting...SURE to disappoint. Predict any rally will be sold.

11/7 - Not only my birthday, but the October Employment Report is sure to engender warm fuzzies in all who behold it! Why would anyone want to be long ahead of this?

11/15 - Year end redemption deadline, maybe more forced selling.
------------------------------------------------------------
STARS - Stock Analog System - No matches
------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 10/27/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: -16.39%
Today: -1.54%
Current Allocation: 50C 50G
Tentative Next Move: Sell any rally that may occur this week. PS- Wow. one wrong move and now I'm suddenly -16%. What a vicious bear!
But sometime we can expect a good 20-25% rally. I think it will occur before years end. Think 770 or so will hold on the S&P, then the rally, then the next leg down.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

For my own bookkeeping purposes:
50G/50C as of 908 = Break even buy 50% at S&P 719
If 100C as of 908 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 802
Sell other 50% at 950 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 857
Sell other 50% at 1000= Break even buy 100% at S&P 925
S&P goes up to 1146 by itself...I'm at break even at 50G 50C...yeah right!
----------------------------------------------------------------------​

 

[Corepuncher]

Here is a "box and whiskers" diagram of the distribution of everyone's YTD return.

The tips of the top (bottom) whiskers are the 90th (10th) percentiles. The body is the middle 50%, or between the 25th and 50th percentiles. The median value (50th) is also shown.

So you can sort of see where you rank compared to everyone on the board.

 

[fabijo]

Corepuncher, you are da man. Thanks for all the stats.

 

[Corepuncher]

Corepuncher, you are da man. Thanks for all the stats.

You're welcome.

For those not used to these diagrams, if you are doing better than -28% YTD...you are in the top "half" of returns. Better than -11.24%, you are in the top 25%. Poolman is just off the scale

I guess I'm just too impatient...or too much of a gambler. My forecast was correct...but I gambled, and paid for it! I hope to get back on track with my last move. So far so good.

 

[Guest2]

You're welcome.

For those not used to these diagrams, if you are doing better than -28% YTD...you are in the top "half" of returns. Better than -11.24%, you are in the top 25%. Poolman is just off the scale

I guess I'm just too impatient...or too much of a gambler. My forecast was correct...but I gambled, and paid for it! I hope to get back on track with my last move. So far so good.

Poolman is a God, how on earth can we compare to that !

Your a Genius with occassional cross overs into insanity. Your my kinda guy ! Thanks for the Diagram, that is pretty cool !

 

[Corepuncher]

Futures are up about 2% as I type. How cute...people trying to pick off some "cheap" stocks.

Too bad they are going to get their FACES MAULED IN THE PROCESS.

I really think you have to wait a couple weeks and see what happens...there is just too much that can go wrong. Lots of catalysts for people to freak out over.

 

[Corepuncher]

Notice the trend over the last two months? When we HAPPEN to rally, it is usually a 1-2 punch (2 days in a row), or, 1 big day followed by a rest,then the other day up.

So, to play this, one might not want to sell today, but wait for a follow-through day either Wed or Thur. If we close down today, that scraps that plan unlesss we can put together a 1-2 day rally towards the end of the week.

However, there are some major caveats, including the FED meeting tomorrow which I feel could be a sell the news type day. Also Q3 GDP on Thur. Either of these has the potential to derail any rally.

Not to mention next week's huge economic calendar and jobs report. Who wants to be in in front of that number?? not me!

I am tempted to sell some of my 50% C today, but, I can afford to be risky and wait for a higher price at which to sell for that portion since I already have 50% in G. If we can sustain a rally into Thu/Fri, I will certainly sell some more in anticipation of a lower buy point in Nov!

PS...Consumer confidence all time low at 38.

 

[Gumby]

Futures are up about 2% as I type. How cute...people trying to pick off some "cheap" stocks.

Too bad they are going to get their FACES MAULED IN THE PROCESS.

I really think you have to wait a couple weeks and see what happens...there is just too much that can go wrong. Lots of catalysts for people to freak out over.

And a whole bunch of Hedge funds meeting margin calls........among other things.

 

[Corepuncher]

------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher's Crystal Ball
------------------------------------------------------------
Possible Big down days:

10/29 - FOMC Meeting...SURE to disappoint. Predict any rally will be sold. Some profit taking after the big rally possible.

11/7 - Not only my birthday, but the October Employment Report is sure to engender warm fuzzies in all who behold it! Why would anyone want to be long ahead of this?

11/15 - Year end redemption deadline, maybe more forced selling.
------------------------------------------------------------
STARS - Stock Analog System - No matches
------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 10/28/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: -10.99%
Today: +5.40%
Current Allocation: 50C 50G
Tentative Next Move: Sell by 980...Nov. buy target 775-839 to put in 50% C...save other 50% for lower value.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

For my own bookkeeping purposes:
50G/50C as of 908 = Break even buy 50% at S&P 719
If 100C as of 908 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 802
Sell other 50% at 950 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 857
Sell other 50% at 1000= Break even buy 100% at S&P 925
S&P goes up to 1146 by itself...I'm at break even at 50G 50C...yeah right!
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[nasa1974]

CP,

I like your chart but things just haven't been following normal logic. I hope we see what you are talking about, a day of balance and then another rally. I would like to see a little more positive movement before Friday because I do not have warm fuzzies for November and plan on being in G. Even at a -20%+ YTD.

 

[Corepuncher]

The first ever crystal ball prediction turned out fairly accurate...rally was sold after FOMC meeting.

Now, we look to the GDP tomorrow. Could be very interesting. If it does not disappoint too much, and we rally, I will likely sell.

Also re-calculated my YTD...buy starting with balance on 1/1/08, adding contributions and agency matching and seeing what I SHOULD have in there. The difference seems larger than even what the auto tracker has...and even that was a bit off because I forgot to enter a few times which made my return seem lower. So...I'm not too confident in it all. Anyway, I'm gonna go with the LOWEST return calculated from any method...that way it is a worst case scenario.

------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher's Crystal Ball
------------------------------------------------------------
Possible Big down days:

10/30 - Preliminary GDP for Q3. I think we will have follow through rally if it comes in as expected or better. If it is much worse than expected...look out below.

11/7 - Not only my birthday, but the October Employment Report is sure to engender warm fuzzies in all who behold it! Why would anyone want to be long ahead of this?

11/15 - Year end redemption deadline, maybe more forced selling.
------------------------------------------------------------
STARS - Stock Analog System - No matches
------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 10/29/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: -17.48%
Today: -0.55%
Current Allocation: 50C 50G
Tentative Next Move: Sell >980...Nov. buy target 775-839 to put in 50% C...save other 50% for lower value.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

For my own bookkeeping purposes:
50G/50C as of 908 = Break even buy 50% at S&P 719
If 100C as of 908 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 802
Sell other 50% at 950 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 857
Sell other 50% at 1000= Break even buy 100% at S&P 925
S&P goes up to 1146 by itself...I'm at break even at 50G 50C...yeah right!
----------------------------------------------------------------------