Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Could it be a successful retest of the bottom? Kinda looks like it...but only time will tell. I like how we are rallying in the face of HORRIBLE economic data.

Somehow though, I feel that this quarters earnings are much better than next will be...and even though everyone knows Q4 will be bad, it will look soooo bad, the market will go down.


Updated Tracker COB 10/16/08
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2008 YTD Return: -9.45%
2-Today: +4.23
Current Allocation: 100C
Tentative Next Move: Preliminary sell target: S&P 1100
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[Corepuncher]

I've lowered my "get out" target back down to S&P 1035. That would give me a 0% YTD, which I would be perfectly content with.

If we are lucky, the big earnings calendar next week will impress and result in somewhat of a rally back to maybe S&P 1050. It may be the perfect time to sell some stocks at that point because the next couple months of data will be SO bad, that not even the normally forward thinking discounting mechanism of Mr. Market will be able to keep it from falling. I'm going to look to sell some stocks before COB 10/23. The reason is, we have Existing home sales on the 24th, then New Home sales on the 27th (a Monday). I predict them to be HORRENDOUS. The week of Nov. 3rd really has me scared with the "RED OCTOBER" employment report and I'll be out for it.

Updated Tracker COB 10/16/08
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2008 YTD Return: -10.02%
Today:-0.62%
Current Allocation: 100C
Tentative Next Move: Sell target: S&P 1035
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[KevinD]

My son and a co-worker both got contracts on the same day for the purchase of existing houses. (We're going to check out our son's this evening. ) Thats 2 sales that I know of right there. Both are in Metro Atlanta where there wasn't that big of a bubble. I'm thinking the report on existing home sales will be better than you think.

As for the rest of it, I still haven't a clue.

 

[Birchtree]

Housing starts slid 6.3% in September to their lowest level in 17 years. Year over year, housing starts (817,000 annual rate) were 31% below the level of construction in September 2007. One silver lining is that the decline in housing starts - the third steep drop in a row - should help whittle down existing housing inventories. Seems to be working.

 

[Corepuncher]

The 13 week T-bill yield has really gone up which is a good sign...

Looks like it is on track for the highest close since the S&P was in the 1200's. Good sign #1.

The dollar continues to breakout to the upside:

And then Gold:

If Gold couldn't break out above 1000 over the past few months when there was true panic, when will it ever? Not only is the world not ending, but inflation is in check.

The "trillion" dollar question, IMO, is what is the correct valuation of the stock market? Regardless of what number it is, I believe the next few months of economic data will be absolutely horrible. When it comes in, the market will have no choice to go down from whatever level it will be at. It will stoke fears of just how big of a wrench did these few weeks of credit freeze throw into the global economic machine.

Personally I'm shooting for an S&P target of 1050+ in order to lighten up. As long as the bond yields, gold, the dollar and energy prices are behaving, then the market should foam upwards barring any new negative catalyst. If those metrics begin to fall apart, I'll consider bailing but no reason to at this point. It sucks to miss huge "potential" gains. 8 more trading days this month before November hits...and that is why I didn't sell early in the month. Who knows where we will be in 8 days? S&P 1100? I've got ~30 yrs until retirement so for me there is little pressure to freak out too much. As long as I don't sell low and buy back high, I'm good. That is the risk you run when you go in and out. That is why I did not get too greedy in September. I sold, then bought back 100+ S&P pts lower than when I sold. That locked in a great gain. Of course I could have locked in a heck of a lot more, but you're either too early or too late. If there is one thing I've learned it is that I don't want to be out for the start of rallies. Now, I don't believe there will be a new bull market anytime soon...but rather a range.

I think the upper end of the range could be 1100-1200....bottom 700-800. And I think in the next few months...we'll use ALL OF IT so get ready!

 

[turbo23dog]

Noob here... did I just read this right? Seems like your frosty view of the future is warming up some?

 

[Birchtree]

At 400 points a day the next 5,000 points could miraculously be reached in 12.5 days. I'm glad I'm not on the lilly pad.

 

[Corepuncher]

Well turbo, I cannot deny how the market seems to believe we have put in a bottom. Like Jeff Macke says, trade the market you got, not the one you want. Another day like today and I'll be back to positive. I can almost see daylight.


Updated Tracker COB 10/20/08
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2008 YTD Return: -5.24%
Today: +4.78%
Current Allocation: 100C
Tentative Next Move: Roll with it
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[Corepuncher]

At 400 points a day the next 5,000 points could miraculously be reached in 12.5 days. I'm glad I'm not on the lilly pad.

Looks like mutual funds are putting money back into the market...and hedge funds have stopped exploding for the moment. As long as the credit market keeps improving, valuations (seemingly) are such that we should go higher. Just think how much short covering gasoline could add to the blaze.

 

[Corepuncher]

System Check:

Markets: Modestly down after a big up day...normal.
Credit Spreads/LIBOR: Coming down significantly today
OIL: Down big.
IRX: Broke out to the upside (yields). Up big.
Gold: Down big to 773.
Dollar: A new 52 wk high are you kidding?

Lots of earnings to munch through. Some good some bad...but I believe the ones that are good will see more money inflow into them than outflow from the bad, resulting in a net gain for the market. I will pull a 12% and predict a close in the green.

But remain nimble. I still have a plan...sell at lest 50% before the end of October assuming it will be a bad first 2 weeks in November.

Also, when KD says things like this today:

"Mark my words; there is a high probability that we are staring at another monster leg downward in the market as you have just reinforced a lack of confidence in an already-fragile market, and the cracks in the glass are already at a critical level."

It makes me extra cautious because he has been SPOT ON FOR OVER A YEAR! If the INX take a U turn back down, it may be the sign.

 

[nasa1974]

But remain nimble. I still have a plan...sell at lest 50% before the end of October assuming it will be a bad first 2 weeks in November.

CP, With the way the market is right now I would agree with you that early November could be a real downer. But with elections on the 4th it will be a real crap shoot. We could have a huge rally or set new lows. Next week the market may show which way it will run as the polls come out showing who is in the lead for November 4th. The local paper had an article on how alternative energy stocks are loosing ground right now because of limited credit and lower oil and natural gas prices. Let's roll the dice and hope we do not get snake eyes. Bad timing for limited IFT's and "inthemoneystocks.com" leaving Utube.

 

[Steadygain]

Also, when KD says things like this today:

"Mark my words; there is a high probability that we are staring at another monster leg downward in the market as you have just reinforced a lack of confidence in an already-fragile market, and the cracks in the glass are already at a critical level."

It makes me extra cautious because he has been SPOT ON FOR OVER A YEAR!

That's pretty much why I decided to ignore things for awhile; it seems like many of those "in the know" are saying the worse is yet to come.

Thinking more on a 5 year plan...do you think we'll be at least 40% higher in 2 years compared to where we are now?

 

[Braveheart]

We just may close in the green !!!

 

[Frixxxx]

we just may close in the green !!!

only if you short!!!!!

 

[Steadygain]

We just may close in the green !!!

Pretty impressive Braveheart; especially considering when you made the call.

 

[Corepuncher]

Pretty impressive Braveheart; especially considering when you made the call.

Actually I made the call 2:43 before...but looks like it may be wrong, although we did get the rally back. Close shmoze...it's just 1 time point. I guess it's possible we rally in the last 30 min! Go rally monkey!

 

[BamaAF]

Actually I made the call 2:43 before...but looks like it may be wrong, although we did get the rally back. Close shmoze...it's just 1 time point. I guess it's possible we rally in the last 30 min! Go rally monkey!

doh.. looks like the bottom fell out around 3:30 eastern....

 

[Silverbird]

darn rally monkey, playing with the pogo stick.

 

[Frixxxx]

Sorry Corepuncher (hijack),

It is with great distress that I post this because if you read my accoutn talk thread you would know I really wasn't rooting for it to go down. The reason I posted about the shorts is because they are back with a vengeance. You are not going to see alot of growth without the pullback right now. The bears are in full force.....

Braveheart, as your name implies, I never meant to put you on the spot for braving your prediction. I wish I could have been BraveFrixxxx to post what I saw coming down the pipe.

We are a team on this MB to make money....I am proud and humbled to know all the participants. (Except maybe Buster:laugh J/K

Keep things light and enjoy the day.

Frixxxx (Hijack over)

 

[Corepuncher]

As long as dollar up, oil down, gold down, short term bond yields up continues, I'll stay in. At some point the market will rally in the face of bad news. Look, everyone knows there is going to be a slowdown. It's what is after that you are investing for. Look at Apple today...down 7% during the day, then down several more percent after hours...only to make a rocket reversal and now it's up 13+ % and will likely lead the NASDAQ tomorrow. This is in the face of lower guidance.

If stocks stop selling off on lowered guidance...well then, we have nowhere to go but up perhaps?

Updated Tracker COB 10/21/08
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2008 YTD Return: -8.32%
Today: -3.08%
Current Allocation: 100C
Tentative Next Move: I'm getting sea sick!
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