Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

LOL..Here's an idea: Stop paying your mortgage.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/636-Stop-Paying-Your-Mortgage-Today.html

 

[Corepuncher]

Futures are up big early this a.m.

Today's action will hinge on the Q3 GDP number, and to a lesser extent weekly jobless claims.

I am forecasting another 10%+ up day IF the GDP number comes in better than expected...that is better than -0.5%. In fact, I think we could test the intraday high of 1044 made on 10/14.

While I FEAR it will be worse than expected...I also know that the election is coming up, and numbers can be "fudged". If it IS as I hope...a big rally day, I'm out. 100G.

However, it could get ugly tomorrow...and we could just as easily close down 10% at or near out 839 level. If THIS occcurs...I will remain 50/50 and wait for 770-800 to buy in.

Another thing to keep in mind, Friday's data is relatively light...and if we rally on Thur...we MIGHT follow through a bit into Friday.

Again...I have to go with my forecast made weeks ago of a BLOODY NOVEMBER! Specifically, I fear the jobs report, which looms on November 7th! Good luck everyone.

Did you see the Nikkei? Up like 27% in 3 days. All because, I believe, of government currency intervention. In that vein, it is a FALSE REASON to rally. Plenty of things to unravel out there...don't be fooled!

 

[nasa1974]

While I FEAR it will be worse than expected...I also know that the election is coming up, and numbers can be "fudged". If it IS as I hope...a big rally day, I'm out. 100G.

However, it could get ugly tomorrow...and we could just as easily close down 10% at or near out 839 level. If THIS occcurs...I will remain 50/50 and wait for 770-800 to buy in.quote]

CP, I am confussed (which is normal most of the time) So are you saying you will stay 50/50 until November 4th and if it is a big rally day you will move to 100G. Or are you saying if today 10/30/08 is a big rally day you will move 100G.

 

[Corepuncher]

While I FEAR it will be worse than expected...I also know that the election is coming up, and numbers can be "fudged". If it IS as I hope...a big rally day, I'm out. 100G.

However, it could get ugly tomorrow...and we could just as easily close down 10% at or near out 839 level. If THIS occcurs...I will remain 50/50 and wait for 770-800 to buy in.quote]

CP, I am confussed (which is normal most of the time) So are you saying you will stay 50/50 until November 4th and if it is a big rally day you will move to 100G. Or are you saying if today 10/30/08 is a big rally day you will move 100G.

I'm going 100 G today. We're stalling near 20 day SMA. Market internals, A/D and Up/Down vol ratios remain good although we are off the highs. Therefore, I think there is a good chance that we close up, POSSIBLY as high as 970 on the S&P.

 

[Corepuncher]

Look at the IRX. Notice the "quiet" but steady drop in the yields as people park their money into this safe haven? Today, it dropped 33.6%. The smart money is positioning for a fall.

------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher's Crystal Ball
------------------------------------------------------------
Possible Big down days:

10/30 - Preliminary GDP for Q3. I think we will have follow through rally if it comes in as expected or better. If it is much worse than expected...look out below.

11/7 - Not only my birthday, but the October Employment Report is sure to engender warm fuzzies in all who behold it! Why would anyone want to be long ahead of this?

11/15 - Year end redemption deadline, maybe more forced selling.
------------------------------------------------------------
STARS - Stock Analog System - No matches
------------------------------------------------------------
Updated Tracker COB 10/29/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: -16.16%
Today: +1.32%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Buy target 775-839 to put in 50% C...save other 50% for lower value.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

For my own bookkeeping purposes:
50G/50C as of 908 = Break even buy 50% at S&P 719
If 100C as of 908 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 802
Sell other 50% at 950 = Break even buy 100% at S&P 857
Sell other 50% at 1000= Break even buy 100% at S&P 925
S&P goes up to 1146 by itself...I'm at break even at 50G 50C...yeah right!
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[JTH]

What's up CP, thanks for keeping me up to date on this market.

I havn't been watching things much, but I'm glad to see we both went to G on the same day.

-18.32% YTD, ouch that's gonna leave a mark!

 

[Braveheart]

Futures are up big early this a.m.

Today's action will hinge on the Q3 GDP number, and to a lesser extent weekly jobless claims.

I am forecasting another 10%+ up day IF the GDP number comes in better than expected...that is better than -0.5%. In fact, I think we could test the intraday high of 1044 made on 10/14.

While I FEAR it will be worse than expected...I also know that the election is coming up, and numbers can be "fudged". If it IS as I hope...a big rally day, I'm out. 100G.

However, it could get ugly tomorrow...and we could just as easily close down 10% at or near out 839 level. If THIS occcurs...I will remain 50/50 and wait for 770-800 to buy in.

Another thing to keep in mind, Friday's data is relatively light...and if we rally on Thur...we MIGHT follow through a bit into Friday.

Again...I have to go with my forecast made weeks ago of a BLOODY NOVEMBER! Specifically, I fear the jobs report, which looms on November 7th! Good luck everyone.

Did you see the Nikkei? Up like 27% in 3 days. All because, I believe, of government currency intervention. In that vein, it is a FALSE REASON to rally. Plenty of things to unravel out there...don't be fooled!

It did not happen because when you look at the week there was no way this market was going to hit that mark because as many were buying there were some big sells. I think tomorrow will be the test. I never used an IFT last month but if we are up early before noon I will move from 100% C Fund just not sure maybe 100% F Fund LoL but just might.

 

[Corepuncher]

Those who live in OK may be interested in this:

The Nov. 18th OKC Federal Executive Board Luncheon will feature a talk on "TSP Investment Strategies in the Current Market" by First Command (htttp://www.firstcommandbank.com/customer-service/first-command-bank-about-us.htm).

Tuesday, November 18th.

11:30 - 1:00 PM

Where: Federal Transfer Center Training Center
7510 S. McArthur Blvd.
Oklahoma City, OK 73169

Directions: McArthur Blvd. south until it ends (south of FAA)p turn lefft (he FT Center will be directly in front of you), turn right at the stop sign, the training center is on your left about 1/8th of a mile south.

12.00 per person, lunch included.

here is the form:

http://www.corepuncher.com/misc/FEB.pdf

 

[Corepuncher]

I agree with this guy...credit cards will be next show to drop. Just watch what happens when banks begin reeling in credit limits and you take that aspect away from already slowing consumer spending.

Also, he alludes to what KD has been talking about, bonds and the dollar selling off. Stay safe!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=912299267&play=1

 

[DoughBoy]

Just watch what happens when banks begin reeling in credit limits

I was listening to Clark Howard today, guy calls in and says the bank doubled his credit card interest rate for no obvious reason. Anyone else hearing of this going on?

 

[robo]

Just watch what happens when banks begin reeling in credit limits

I was listening to Clark Howard today, guy calls in and says the bank doubled his credit card interest rate for no obvious reason. Anyone else hearing of this going on?

I'm getting offers for lower rates, but the last check on my score it was 838.

Robo

 

[JTH]

Just watch what happens when banks begin reeling in credit limits

I was listening to Clark Howard today, guy calls in and says the bank doubled his credit card interest rate for no obvious reason. Anyone else hearing of this going on?

Bank of America did this to me a year ago without telling me. It jumped from 7% to 18%. I argued with them to no avail, so I did a balance transfer, paid it off, and will never do business with them again!

 

[nasa1974]

One of the local TV stations here had a report that said some of the banks are thinking of giving a 40% reduction on overextended credit card users with a five year payback and no intertest. The thinking is that some money is better than no money if the credit card user files bankruptcy.

So much for those of us that manage our credit cards wisely.

 

[Birchtree]

You will only qualify if you subscribe to Jet, Ebony and Essence magazines. They are now on the Nobama plane ride.

 

[robo]

Just watch what happens when banks begin reeling in credit limits

I was listening to Clark Howard today, guy calls in and says the bank doubled his credit card interest rate for no obvious reason. Anyone else hearing of this going on?

Bob Brinker commented on his radio show today he is getting reports from all over the country this is going on. He commented it's happening to folks with good credit.

 

[Birchtree]

I accessed a good chunk of my available credit over the last two weeks before they could take it away.

 

[Corepuncher]

I love my credit cards...although I don't use them anymore. over the past few years, I was able to fanagle all kinds of good deals.

For example, I had a student loan locked in at 7.75%, over 20,000...but was able to transfer it to a credit card by combining two citibanks to make 1 mega card, then get a 2.99% life of loan rate.

Then, my wife's wedding ring as well, 2.99% locked in.

It gets better, i was able to get a 20,000 limit on combined Discover accounts, with 0% interest FOR THE LIFE OF THE LOAN. We bought a new car and it is all on our CREDIT CARD LOL! The catch is we have to make 2 purchases a month on the card, and that will keep the deal "alive" for another month. It's been going for two years now. I just go to the gas station and buy 7 cents worth of gas...it hardly accumulated any interest at all. There is my "purchase". Not only am I not paying any interest on my car loan...the minimum payment actually decreases every month, and, the principal balance is lower than it would have been had I been paying more. Rock on Discover! No wonder these dudes are going broke!

 

[Show-me]

Bob Brinker commented on his radio show today he is getting reports from all over the country this is going on. He commented it's happening to folks with good credit.

I spoke of this in another thread. I listen to Clark Howard right after Boortz on the radio. Clark sez that specifically American Express is using new software to identify high risk users and shutting off their credit completely. You shop at Walmart, Dollar Tree, Kmart, etc., with a Amer. Ex. card and you are done. If you have a loan with Country Wide Mortgage, you are done.

Bergners tried to nail me a month ago for being a day late paying off a $35 balance. The doubled my interest and nailed me for a $49 late fee. I protested and threated to cancel and they withdrew all penalties. Which reminds me I need to cancel that card.

Had a similar problem with a piece of shitt Bank of America Visa that was formerly a Pulaski Visa. They did the same routine and I called the account manager and before I could tell him the whole story he forgave everything. I guess they are weeding out the bad eggs and looked at my credit score and past history and decided it was better to kiss my ass than to try and stick 18% interest and a $49 late fee up it.

I'm telling ya, you got good credit and pay your card off, you are in the drivers seat.

 

[clester]

I spoke of this in another thread. I listen to Clark Howard right after Boortz on the radio. Clark sez that specifically American Express is using new software to identify high risk users and shutting off their credit completely. You shop at Walmart, Dollar Tree, Kmart, etc., with a Amer. Ex. card and you are done. If you have a loan with Country Wide Mortgage, you are done.

Bergners tried to nail me a month ago for being a day late paying off a $35 balance. The doubled my interest and nailed me for a $49 late fee. I protested and threated to cancel and they withdrew all penalties. Which reminds me I need to cancel that card.

Had a similar problem with a piece of shitt Bank of America Visa that was formerly a Pulaski Visa. They did the same routine and I called the account manager and before I could tell him the whole story he forgave everything. I guess they are weeding out the bad eggs and looked at my credit score and past history and decided it was better to kiss my ass than to try and stick 18% interest and a $49 late fee up it.

I'm telling ya, you got good credit and pay your card off, you are in the drivers seat.

I had a very similar story. They dropped the fees immediately. Pay it off in full monthly!

 

[robo]

I spoke of this in another thread. I listen to Clark Howard right after Boortz on the radio. Clark sez that specifically American Express is using new software to identify high risk users and shutting off their credit completely. You shop at Walmart, Dollar Tree, Kmart, etc., with a Amer. Ex. card and you are done. If you have a loan with Country Wide Mortgage, you are done.

Bergners tried to nail me a month ago for being a day late paying off a $35 balance. The doubled my interest and nailed me for a $49 late fee. I protested and threated to cancel and they withdrew all penalties. Which reminds me I need to cancel that card.

Had a similar problem with a piece of shitt Bank of America Visa that was formerly a Pulaski Visa. They did the same routine and I called the account manager and before I could tell him the whole story he forgave everything. I guess they are weeding out the bad eggs and looked at my credit score and past history and decided it was better to kiss my ass than to try and stick 18% interest and a $49 late fee up it.

I'm telling ya, you got good credit and pay your card off, you are in the drivers seat.

Yep - very cheap money coming soon if have the credit score. They are printing money like there is no tomorrow. Look for rates in Europe to drop next week. I'll be getting some of this cheap money soon. The robo cheap money trade. I look for TSP loan money to drop to under 3% soon. I'll fund my Roth's next year with a TSP loan @ under 3% I'm thinking....


Take Care!