Corepuncher's Account Talk

[KevinD]

Forgive me Core but what is the chart you posted?

 

[Corepuncher]

Forgive me Core but what is the chart you posted?

It is stock market alchemy! Just a matching systemt that attempts to forecast the future based on the past. Not verified, use with caution.

 

[Corepuncher]

I'm still positive darnit! You can't bring me down!

Some thoughts...lots of forced selling today. Seemed a bit controlled. Dollar up, oil down. Both good. The AGG/F fund, once again...had a tremendous intraday move down, only to close up. Very, very strange.

One hell of a bottoming kangaroo tail today on the S&P...50 pts long! I just don't see myself selling now that we are down so low. Buyers came in late in the day...a massive 400 pt DOW rally in one hour. More to come, I hope!

Updated Tracker COB 10/06/08
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2008 YTD Return: +0.22% ( I was over +10% 3 trading days ago...WOW!)
Today: -4.06%
Current Allocation: 75C 25S
Tentative Next Move: Hope for the lemming to run up the market so that I can sell some. I should have taken my own damn advice! Knew it would be a gamble playing for a "pop"...but doesn't always work.
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[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Tentative Next Move: Hope for the lemming to run up the market so that I can sell some. I should have taken my own damn advice! Knew it would be a gamble playing for a "pop"...but doesn't always work.
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I too think it's likely that we're very near/at a playable bottom.

I also think it is very likely that the rally could be very strong, surprising a lot of folks, and taking us all the way to the SPX 1200 range and topping out near the election.

Just when everyone is comfortable enough with the market to get back in .......... it'll rollover hard back down to SPX 950.

In any case the true signal for those timid souls to safely get back in is when the 3 day ma crosses back over the 8 day ma on the monthly SPX chart. Maybe you could post that when it happens. cheers

 

[presskh]

Tentative Next Move: Hope for the lemming to run up the market so that I can sell some. I should have taken my own damn advice! Knew it would be a gamble playing for a "pop"...but doesn't always work.
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I'm with you, Puncher - bring on the lemmings!!!

 

[Guest2]

I'm still positive darnit! You can't bring me down!

Just tell me who's trying CP, I have a few Italian Friends from my hometown
I can send over to speak with the ney-sayers. I had them pay a small visit to
the Futures Market tonight. At this time they are up nearly +1.50% so maybe
my idea worked. We'll have to wait and see in the morning. Good Luck Pal !
It's Coit-ins (NY Style Curtains) for anyone trying to get in our way !

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 10/07/08
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2008 YTD Return: -5.51%
Today: -5.73%
Current Allocation: 75C 25S
Tentative Next Move: Rally Monkey...WHERE ARE YOU?
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[JTH]

Updated Tracker COB 10/07/08
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2008 YTD Return: -5.51%
Today: -5.73%
Current Allocation: 75C 25S
Tentative Next Move: Rally Monkey...WHERE ARE YOU?
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CP I'm just curious if you've looked at your plan B?

Are you prepared to bail if we don't meet out price objectives?

1161 is a long ways away...

 

[Corepuncher]

CP I'm just curious if you've looked at your plan B?

Are you prepared to bail if we don't meet out price objectives?

1161 is a long ways away...

Actually, 1161 is not break even, since it takes a smaller pt value to regain the same percentage from a lower starting point. 1140-1150 is that target.

I'm gonna wait out this extreme fear...nothing make sense when this is occurring. I still think we'll get one hell of a rally soon, but, it may only take us back to 1100 - 1200 max. I"m gonna wait. Not ready to end the world yet.

I've learned my lesson though...these quick "in and outs" are very dangerous in this bear market. I am going to try to only risk a maximum of 50% of my TSP at any one time...meaning 50% will always be in G until the bear is over...which may be a long time. If I can get over 1100 again to w/d some cash, I will consider myself fortunate.

 

[Corepuncher]

Will be interesting to see how the F fund closed today compared to the AGG...which is down over 3% to an ALL TIME LOW...actually, blowing it away.

More on AGG (selling on strength)...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122228933358772459.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

 

[Corepuncher]

I think I'm gonna dump my S soon, trade in for C. Might as well use my "other" transfer intra-fund.

F fund looks terrible.

Heavy volume today...and we went "essentially" sideways given the trajectory of the previous few days. Maybe a sign of hope. Hopefully the bear will get tired for a while, and let the bulls stampede to 1100+

 

[ATCJeff]

I saw a few people calling a top on bonds. Prices should start to fall pushing yields back up. Stay away from the F fund.

Now if we can get all the bond sellers to buy equities.

 

[Corepuncher]

I just realized that since the October high, I am nearly flat...which is the same thing as if I sold at 1576 in October and bought in at S&P 1000. Therefore, even if I go down some more from here, I feel my objective of missing most of the bear market has been met. 1576-1000 = a 37% drop, but a rise back to 1576 will be a 58% increase. Will continue to DCA into C fund now. Am increasing my allocation. I may transfer my 25% S into C until we resume an upward trend.

Longer term...still lots of unknown. However, the fear right now is so thick, you gotta think it is an overreaction. It will continue to be an overreaction until the things people fear come to pass. That will take time, and in the meantime, we will have rallies, and I will partake, and there will be much rejoicing.

Long term, I fear we will be relatively flat for years to come, using our GDP to pay back debt instead of innovate and lead the world into the next bull market.


Updated Tracker COB 10/08/08
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2008 YTD Return: -6.78%
Today: -1.27% :suspicious:
Current Allocation: 75C 25S
Tentative Next Move: Reside in the ether
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[presskh]

Hey puncher, I wonder what tomorrow's lifting of the shorting ban will have on the markets? Imposing the ban doesn't seem to have helped any.

 

[Corepuncher]

Hey puncher, I wonder what tomorrow's lifting of the shorting ban will have on the markets? Imposing the ban doesn't seem to have helped any.

I think anything that bring normalcy back, will be seen as a positive, including shorting.

 

[presskh]

I think anything that bring normalcy back, will be seen as a positive, including shorting.

I was watching a guy on Fox Business Channel this afternoon who primarily short trades. He said that by not having shorting, large hedge fund managers have not been in the market buying long because they cannot hedge their bets by buying the flip-side, or shorting. He also said that the extended number of down days are primarily a lot of small "mom and pop" trades running for the exits and we haven't seen any reversal trades from large institutions, which we might normally have in extreme oversold conditions. He predicted an up day for the markets tomorrow.

I don't know if he is to be believed or not but I don't remember having this many down days previously that included very steep plunges.

 

[Corepuncher]

The "experimental" stock matching system returned ZERO matches for today. Yesterday only had 1 loose match...July 23rd, 2002...S&P 797. The first of the two bottoms (other was 3 months later and was THE bottom).

For the match, it rallied 21% in 22 trading days....then fell 19% in 33 days, before taking off for good after that. A similar scenario would make sense this time as well...big rally, then it gets sold, before trying again. I'm just not so sure the second attempt will be successful.

 

[nasa1974]

The "experimental" stock matching system returned ZERO matches for today. Yesterday only had 1 loose match...July 23rd, 2002...S&P 797. The first of the two bottoms (other was 3 months later and was THE bottom).

For the match, it rallied 21% in 22 trading days....then fell 19% in 33 days, before taking off for good after that. A similar scenario would make sense this time as well...big rally, then it gets sold, before trying again. I'm just not so sure the second attempt will be successful.

CP, 12% is hoping for a 400-500 bounce today. That would be great but just like you are saying a big bounce means a big sell off. That is what is scaring me. For us it just is not profitable since we can not move our funds around daily anymore. I would hope for (fat chance) a slow build up over the next week or two. This would add some stability to the market. I know, I am dreaming.:laugh:

 

[justbizness45]

CP, what's your plan today? I'm thinking of taking some off the table on a big rally. I'm down 16% over the last 5 days and I hate to capture the loss but am sure any rally will only last a day or two. The overall economy is still bad.

 

[Corepuncher]

I"m not gonna be the last to freak out in a game of musical stock chairs and not get my seat on the rally train. I'm staying in until we get > 1100 on the S&P. Just by pure probability, we should get a positive catalyst soon.



(corrected tracker)
Updated Tracker COB 10/08/08
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2008 YTD Return: -6.77%
Today: -1.26% :suspicious:
Current Allocation: 75C 25S
Tentative Next Move: Wait for a rally
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