Corepuncher's Account Talk

[airlift]

CP and SB,

The dollar continues to gain. However, it looks as if the USD is getting overbought. If money is printed to deal with the rescue plan, would this not weaken the dollar and thus favor the I fund instead of the C and S funds? Or do you guys see a big oversold stock market rally benefitting all funds before the Nov.4 elections?

 

[Guest2]

CP and SB,

The dollar continues to gain. However, it looks as if the USD is getting overbought. If money is printed to deal with the rescue plan, would this not weaken the dollar and thus favor the I fund instead of the C and S funds? Or do you guys see a big oversold stock market rally benefiting all funds before the Nov.4 elections?

AIRLIFT, I kinda lean toward the dollar being of little consequence as
the International Fund will bounce higher then the (C) and (S) should
we get the type of jump that I expect. If the dollar drops, it'll just be
sugar in our coffee. A friend of mine told me a couple weeks ago that
a pre-election rally was common. But haven't looked into this tidbit.

 

[Corepuncher]

Ok...the stock market is down pretty good today. But some observations at midday...

1) Oil is way down
2) The dollar is up
3) Gold is selling off rather hard
4) The AGG/ (supposed F fund) opened high but is falling now.

All of these factors, in my opinion, do not reflect a doomsday scenario. Instead, you can make the argument that all of these ducks are in a row and building a solid base from which to rally.

 

[XL-entLady]

All of these factors, in my opinion, do not reflect a doomsday scenario. Instead, you can make the argument that all of these ducks are in a row and building a solid base from which to rally.

CP, since you said in an earlier post that you would sell into the rally, I'm wondering about your timing. How will you work that sale, given the aggravating lag time we have between the time an IFT is requested and when it is actuallly applied. And knowing that the House will vote(probably) Friday but may have to wait until Monday if they're not quite sure of the votes. And I'm thinking that there will probably a short pop if House approves it then back down when reality hits.

Anyway, seems like the timing could be really tricky. How are you thinking of playing it?

Lady

 

[Corepuncher]

CP, since you said in an earlier post that you would sell into the rally, I'm wondering about your timing. How will you work that sale, given the aggravating lag time we have between the time an IFT is requested and when it is actuallly applied. And knowing that the House will vote(probably) Friday but may have to wait until Monday if they're not quite sure of the votes. And I'm thinking that there will probably a short pop if House approves it then back down when reality hits.

Anyway, seems like the timing could be really tricky. How are you thinking of playing it?

Lady

It just depends on the flow of things. I am NOT going to sell any stock below my buy in price of 1160...that is for sure. If we go down more, we go down more...I've already made a nice gain and since I have to wait a month to buy more stock I'm definitely not selling below my buy in price.

Now, I may sell partially above 1160...but in installments. My target as of today to get all out is 1200.

Another thing I could do, is make 1 more IFT out of stocks but into F fund. This could be risky though...yet, if you think stocks will go down, it would be a hedge. Bonds aren't low enough for me to do this right now.

 

[XL-entLady]

It just depends on the flow of things. I am NOT going to sell any stock below my buy in price of 1160...that is for sure. If we go down more, we go down more...I've already made a nice gain and since I have to wait a month to buy more stock I'm definitely not selling below my buy in price.

Now, I may sell partially above 1160...but in installments. My target as of today to get all out is 1200.

Another thing I could do, is make 1 more IFT out of stocks but into F fund. This could be risky though...yet, if you think stocks will go down, it would be a hedge. Bonds aren't low enough for me to do this right now.

Thanks for sharing your thinking. I'm just trying to understand how one of the MB's "great minds" is thinking this mess through. Interesting thought about F Fund. Are you worried that the bail-out fix could throw F Fund into a spin? I am, but then what do I know.

Lady

 

[ATCJeff]

It just depends on the flow of things. I am NOT going to sell any stock below my buy in price of 1160...that is for sure. If we go down more, we go down more...I've already made a nice gain and since I have to wait a month to buy more stock I'm definitely not selling below my buy in price.

Now, I may sell partially above 1160...but in installments. My target as of today to get all out is 1200.

Another thing I could do, is make 1 more IFT out of stocks but into F fund. This could be risky though...yet, if you think stocks will go down, it would be a hedge. Bonds aren't low enough for me to do this right now.

I'm with ya. We need to make sure we have plenty of life preservers. Were taking in water.

One day too early. Damn.

Back to the bathroom. I'm remodeling the master bath.

 

[Birchtree]

Jeff,

Did you buy your supplies at Home Depot or a local jobber.

 

[ATCJeff]

Jeff,

Did you buy your supplies at Home Depot or a local jobber.

No supplies as of now. Removing walls, tub, shower, toilet, tile, mirror, lights and flooring. Though I have already ordered cabinets and counter tops from local cabinet shop. Supporting a small business.

 

[Corepuncher]

Well crap, I suppose I better "mark to market" my return as of yesterday!

Once again, and for 2 months in a row, I was 1 day early in buying...both times were at the beginning of the month, and after I said I would wait until the end of the week near the jobs report. Oh well, I hope to make some profit anyway...although this is still pretty scary.

Actually, if I can make any profit at all, I'm gonna get mostly out. In the coming months, we are going to see economic data worse than in years due to this credit freeze.

I would really enjoy watching the VIX crash back down after the bill passes. Also, I don't like how the S fund chart looks...not sure why I bought some S anyway, but oh well. Probably the first thing I'll dump.

Updated Tracker COB 10/02/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +5.88%
Today: -4.36%
Current Allocation: 75C 25S
Tentative Next Move: Get some back out > 1161
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Braveheart]

Well crap, I suppose I better "mark to market" my return as of yesterday!

Once again, and for 2 months in a row, I was 1 day early in buying...both times were at the beginning of the month, and after I said I would wait until the end of the week near the jobs report. Oh well, I hope to make some profit anyway...although this is still pretty scary.

Actually, if I can make any profit at all, I'm gonna get mostly out. In the coming months, we are going to see economic data worse than in years due to this credit freeze.

I would really enjoy watching the VIX crash back down after the bill passes. Also, I don't like how the S fund chart looks...not sure why I bought some S anyway, but oh well. Probably the first thing I'll dump.

Updated Tracker COB 10/02/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +5.88%
Today: -4.36%
Current Allocation: 75C 25S
Tentative Next Move: Get some back out > 1161
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Your point on the S Fund CP do you think it has to do with small caps being pushed aside or bullied for funds. If GE has problems raising money how about the smaller co. in the S Fund

 

[Corepuncher]

I suspect S fund companies are seen as not as safe as the larger ones.

Looking ahead, next Monday there is no economic data, and the whole week is fairly light. That may work to our advantage to continue this precarious rally.

I might wait and let this rally gain some steam, hoping for a 2 day punch Fri into Monday.

Sell target: 1180

 

[Corepuncher]

Is it my imagination or the the AGG showing some pretty strong resilience? Like 6 or 7 bottoming tails in a row?? The chart is still bad, but it refuses to close on a low of the day.

Of course that GIANT bottoming tail is a bid forboding, perhaps. Still, it seems like there are buyers every time it tries to go down. Could be a play to hedge stock holdings (I may trade my 25S for 25F), but risky.

 

[Corepuncher]

I sure wish I had waited 1 or 2 days to buy in, but oh well, you can't pick every top and bottom...although you can come close. I believe that we may be near a true capitulation...within days perhaps. At some point the hedgies will be done liquidating.

S&P of 1000 today is a lot different than S&P 1000 in 1998 or 2002. For example, look at the PE ratio of the market...we are at quite low levels historically. Lets get gas down to 2 bucks a gallon. Lets get the credit markets stabilized. Lets form a base. A lot of fear out there and like Birch says, all kinds of cash on the sidelinles...lurking. When we do turn the corner, it could be rather explosive. We could be up to 1200 in no time. Time to start dollar cost averaging again.

In a way, it's kind of liberating being in now. I don't have to watch the market every day. Time for a break...at least for now. I'm not going to sell short at these levels in order to buy in lower...too risky IMO. I won't look to sell until after 1161.

 

[Show-me]

Picking bottoms is like picking the winning Power Ball ticket.

 

[JTH]

Whomever IFT'd in today must feel really good. With the market looking good this morning before the IFT deadline, I'm sure glad I didn't bail back to G, because that would have been a tough pill to swallow.

A tough week, month, year, but still if you're beating the markets then that's a good victory worth the savoring... :notrust:

 

[Christopher]

Whomever IFT'd in today must feel really good. With the market looking good this morning before the IFT deadline, I'm sure glad I didn't bail back to G, because that would have been a tough pill to swallow.

We went 40G 30C 30S at 11:55 today from 100G, anticipating next week's pop. But who knows? Keeping some powder dry, jic. We rode that two day wave on 09/18-19 and made it to land by 09/22; hoping to do somewhat similarly next week. Early 2008 losses had beaten us up so badly that, ya know, at this point we ARE feeling good! Definitely amateurs swimming in an ocean of sinking investments - hope we can avoid getting caught in any "Bank Suction" (no pun intended). Thank you, and cheers and good fortune to all contributors on the mb... :cheesy:

 

[Gumby]

Picking bottoms is like picking the winning Power Ball ticket.

Maybe even harder in this market.

 

[Corepuncher]

Dang, lost 6% in 2 days. Oh the horror! Still up, and happy about it. Just as easy as it was to get in perhaps a day or two early, it would be equally easy to let the first 5% of the after-rally-bottom pass you by. Actually looking forward to riding the waves for a while. May look for a strategic F fund move at some point.

Updated Tracker COB 10/03/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +4.28%
Today: -1.60%
Current Allocation: 75C 25S
Tentative Next Move: Be patient/rest.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Latest output. Few matches so less reliable...but still, it is a resounding "rally" signal next few weeks. That would make sense, I guess.