Corepuncher's Account Talk

[RPM]

Wait, I thought you could do your transfer on the last day of the month before noon, to be effective that night (i.e. tomorrow morning on the 1st of the next month). Am I wrong? or you can only do it after noon of the last day of the month, i.e. same as if you'd do it before noon of the 1st of next month?

Thanks,

It's after the 1200 noon est. deadline. We're in October now.

 

[350zCommTech]

Wait, I thought you could do your transfer on the last day of the month before noon, to be effective that night (i.e. tomorrow morning on the 1st of the next month). Am I wrong?

Yes, you are wrong.

or you can only do it after noon of the last day of the month, i.e. same as if you'd do it before noon of the 1st of next month?

Thanks,

That is correct.

 

[XL-entLady]

Wait, I thought you could do your transfer on the last day of the month before noon, to be effective that night (i.e. tomorrow morning on the 1st of the next month). Am I wrong?

Yes, that is wrong.


or you can only do it after noon of the last day of the month, i.e. same as if you'd do it before noon of the 1st of next month?

Your second scenario is correct. If you run out of IFT's, you have to wait until after noon Eastern Time on the last day of the month to make another one, and it won't be effective until close of business on the first day of the following month.

And I think that is "first business day of the month" for months that start on a weekend. Although I haven't tried to make an IFT under that weekend scenario yet to find out.

Hope that helps,
Lady

 

[Corepuncher]

ADP employment report came in better than expected, however this report is notorious for sucking bigtime. The Friday jobs report will likely be totally different. Still, it could be seen as a positive sign, and I expect early weakness today to be bought by the close. Therefore, I will likely sit on my hands and wait. Maybe thursday will be a better buying opportunity...or sometime later. Unless the credit markets unlock, I'm not going anywhere.

Plus, we need to see if they lift the shorting ban on those financials!

Updated Tracker COB 9/30/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +10.23%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: I'm not sure what to do. I don't want to be like last month and use my IFT too early, thus missing some huge buying opportunities. Yet, a rally will be possible early this month....but it may not be as large as the downside risk. Maybe I can go all in , catch a little rally, then sell. Then, take out a full TSP loan, open up a side account, and be able to buy if it goes a lot lower
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Steadygain]

CP,
The way I see it; with over 10% - you have lots of room to play. I think you're doing incredibly well and obviously you don't need anyone's input (including mine).

BUT - we are likely near a bottom and long overdue for a decent (even short term) rally.

Here I would avoid the 1 or 2 day gain many others are striving for and grab the overall wave. The Deal is expected to PASS tonight; it may not have quite the fireworks it would have had last Monday but still - it will last more than a day or two.

 

[Corepuncher]

CP,
The way I see it; with over 10% - you have lots of room to play. I think you're doing incredibly well and obviously you don't need anyone's input (including mine).

BUT - we are likely near a bottom and long overdue for a decent (even short term) rally.

Here I would avoid the 1 or 2 day gain many others are striving for and grab the overall wave. The Deal is expected to PASS tonight; it may not have quite the fireworks it would have had last Monday but still - it will last more than a day or two.

I guess it's a senate vote today then house tomorrow. I predict the DEM's will rally their troops to bring it to a majority vote, and it will pass. This should spark a decent rally...you would think.

 

[Silverbird]

If just the Dems rally, this will fail just like it did in the House, there are enough on both sides of the aisle that won't vote for this for ideological reasons to sink this with just the Dems. Dems majority is not big enough to railroad even if they wanted to do it on a bill seen by them as a last minute Paulson Bazooka.

 

[BamaAF]

Don't know how it will go -- but there were 95 Dems who voted no on last one, and package only failed by 12 votes.. I think at least 12 more will vote yes this time around...

I think many of the same Reps that voted no will still do so if this is just a rewarmed version of the last package... But will some of the Reps that voted yes turn into no?

Will get intresting -- not willing to risk 100% either way, although a drop today is begging entry....

 

[Corepuncher]

Don't know how it will go -- but there were 95 Dems who voted no on last one, and package only failed by 12 votes.. I think at least 12 more will vote yes this time around...

I think many of the same Reps that voted no will still do so if this is just a rewarmed version of the last package... But will some of the Reps that voted yes turn into no?

Will get intresting -- not willing to risk 100% either way, although a drop today is begging entry....

The S&P is current 118 points below where I last sold...I feel like I am almost obligated to buy in at least partial today. Maybe 50%...then save the other half for a potential meltdown day!

Last time I bought in 50% early before the jobs report, I wished I had waited another day to buy in. Perhaps I'll wait longer. 1150 is awfully low...but I fear what will happen when the bill passes...and then the rally fails to have legs.

Remember, we were down 2+% the morning of the day everyone thought the bill WOULD pass...so it was instant sell the news anyway. This economy is going to have to pass a major stone through it's system and it won't feel very good. Question is, when will the low come. I don't want to be left out of the trade b/c of IFT's used up if later this month we go down more.

 

[XL-entLady]

The S&P is current 118 points below where I last sold...I feel like I am almost obligated to buy in at least partial today. Maybe 50%...then save the other half for a potential meltdown day!

Last time I bought in 50% early before the jobs report, I wished I had waited another day to buy in. Perhaps I'll wait longer. 1150 is awfully low...but I fear what will happen when the bill passes...and then the rally fails to have legs.

Remember, we were down 2+% the morning of the day everyone thought the bill WOULD pass...so it was instant sell the news anyway. This economy is going to have to pass a major stone through it's system and it won't feel very good. Question is, when will the low come. I don't want to be left out of the trade b/c of IFT's used up if later this month we go down more.

Agree. With only 2 IFT's it's a tough decision. If the bill doesn't pass (little chance of that IMHO) the markets will tank, and a buy-in at that point will be a no-brainer. My 2 cents.

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

The S&P is current 118 points below where I last sold...I feel like I am almost obligated to buy in at least partial today. Maybe 50%...then save the other half for a potential meltdown day!

It sounds like you're saying - time to get in and seize the day; look at the overall picture and grab it for what it's worth.

 

[Steadygain]

Agree. With only 2 IFT's it's a tough decision. If the bill doesn't pass (little chance of that IMHO) the markets will tank, and a buy-in at that point will be a no-brainer. My 2 cents.

Lady

You're RIGHT ON TARGET !!

We tired it the easy way - letting Congress push it through (hoping for the best). BUT IT FAILED.

Lady - think about it - do you really think the Powers that Be are going to let this fail?? IT WILL PASS - IT'S DONE - IT'S OVER

 

[Corepuncher]

You're RIGHT ON TARGET !!

We tired it the easy way - letting Congress push it through (hoping for the best). BUT IT FAILED.

Lady - think about it - do you really think the Powers that Be are going to let this fail?? IT WILL PASS - IT'S DONE - IT'S OVER

ISM index came in at 43.5...OUCH!

I'm going to put some in for a bounce that will likely come after the bill passes congress. Not going to risk 100%...no way. Haven't decided on the exact percentage yet.

 

[fedgolfer]

I can see another flush out to the downside before the end of the week -- mainly because of the jobs data. If Senate passes, we still have the house, they may not vote till next week (Monday). So, Friday we may go down, then early next week the big pop after it makes it through BOTH the House & Senate. That would give Paulson and his friends more time to hide the accumulation. THOUGHTS?

(CP, I posted this in ATC Jeff's thread, but copied it over here too, so you'd see it and hopefully respond).

 

[Corepuncher]

I can see another flush out to the downside before the end of the week -- mainly because of the jobs data. If Senate passes, we still have the house, they may not vote till next week (Monday). So, Friday we may go down, then early next week the big pop after it makes it through BOTH the House & Senate. That would give Paulson and his friends more time to hide the accumulation. THOUGHTS?

(CP, I posted this in ATC Jeff's thread, but copied it over here too, so you'd see it and hopefully respond).

I was under the impression that the house would vote Thur or Fri.

Although not a perfect indicator, the ADP report was much less than expected, and, the consensus for jobs loss last month is -105K. I think that is a high bar...with the possibility of less jobs lost. Therefore, it may be a good setup for a bounce. Could be sizable.

A quick in and out would leave me hanging for the rest of the month, but, economic data is gonna get worse...and the first trading day in NOV is a Monday, with all kinds of data that will be very bad.

 

[Gumby]

I was under the impression that the house would vote Thur or Fri.

Can they vote before the end of the Jewish holiday? Or, are they hoping for a few no shows on the vote?:blink:

 

[ATCJeff]

ISM index came in at 43.5...OUCH!

I'm going to put some in for a bounce that will likely come after the bill passes congress. Not going to risk 100%...no way. Haven't decided on the exact percentage yet.

CP,

I'm only up a percent for the year and I'm all in. You have a much larger cushion then I, go ahead and pull the trigger. Go all in.....

 

[ATCJeff]

I was under the impression that the house would vote Thur or Fri.

Although not a perfect indicator, the ADP report was much less than expected, and, the consensus for jobs loss last month is -105K. I think that is a high bar...with the possibility of less jobs lost. Therefore, it may be a good setup for a bounce. Could be sizable.

A quick in and out would leave me hanging for the rest of the month, but, economic data is gonna get worse...and the first trading day in NOV is a Monday, with all kinds of data that will be very bad.

Agree 100%. The risk is missing this week not next. Late next week the market gets back to economic data. Earnings are just around the corner and already hearing gripes about holiday sales. Make no mistake the economy still sucks and 4th quater probably will see a negative return.

 

[ATCJeff]

Can they vote before the end of the Jewish holiday? Or, are they hoping for a few no shows on the vote?:blink:

No and No....

 

[Guest2]

No and No....

Can they make Proxy Votes ? Like a Absentee Ballot ?