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Corepuncher's Account Talk
- Thread starter Corepuncher
- Start date
ATCJeff
Well-known member
Thank you Mr. Market, now if you could continue tanking for the next 5 trading days I promise I'll buy more stocks...
As I start to formulate a plan of attack for October, my thinking right now is I may have to wait beyond the 1st before jumping all in. This bailout plan may not get approved before the 1st.
I'm still wondering if we will see a huge move down past the 1100 area. If so, we maybe looking at another 10% down. I definitely want to miss that.
Another option would be to wait for a up-trend to show and make a quick in and out and try to grab a couple of percent the easy way.
Stay tune, it's gonna be fun.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Should get a pop at the beginning of trading tomorrow due to Buffet buying 5B in Goldman. But, tough to sustain a rally as of late.
I am almost certain that we will get a rally once the bill is passed...no matter what it looks like. Typical kneejerk reaction.
Buffet has billions and doesn't care if the market goes down another 10% in the short term...so to blindly rally because of him is dumb.
Very few matches showing up in the system. Method 1 averages 50-100 matches usually...only 18 for today. Uncharted waters indeed. Method 2 had ZERO matches a few days ago.
Method three, if you hone in on the current price vs. the 20 SMA, shows it quite down:
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Corepuncher
Well-known member
Updated Tracker COB 9/23/08
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2008 YTD Return: +10.16%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Watch and wait. Still think October will be bad. Every FED intervention has failed...so why should this one not?
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Only 5 more trading days to watch. Last sell price of 1268 no where near in danger of getting breached yet.
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2008 YTD Return: +10.16%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Watch and wait. Still think October will be bad. Every FED intervention has failed...so why should this one not?
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Only 5 more trading days to watch. Last sell price of 1268 no where near in danger of getting breached yet.
Braveheart
Member
I just hope to break even for September. If I can I will jump back into G and lick my wounds.:embarrest:
May the force be with us.
I really believe today there will be a shock in the market with all the FBI news and now we know people are going to be held accountable. Congress, Senate, CEO's etc.
I am going with my up is down and down is up theory and yes I will predict the Market will jump more than 200 points today setting up a huge rally between today through Friday !!1
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Corepuncher
Well-known member
New home sales way down...460K...that is 10% less than "expected".
At the same time, Inventory went UP from 10.3 to 10.9 month inventory.
This is a HUGE drop and not consistent with a "bottom", or the "slowing down" the heads on TV have been crooning about.
It means we are still building more new homes than we are selling.
October 1st, the min down payment for an FHA loan goes up 0.5% to 3.5%. Hmmm, how many of the people who would qualify for an FHA loan have 3.5% cash to throw down?
Probably not too many, if the initial jobless claims are any indication...they skyrocketed to 493K. I don't know about you, but on Oct 3rd we get the September unemployment report...and I'm predicting we break 100K jobs lost.
At the same time, Inventory went UP from 10.3 to 10.9 month inventory.
This is a HUGE drop and not consistent with a "bottom", or the "slowing down" the heads on TV have been crooning about.
It means we are still building more new homes than we are selling.
October 1st, the min down payment for an FHA loan goes up 0.5% to 3.5%. Hmmm, how many of the people who would qualify for an FHA loan have 3.5% cash to throw down?
Probably not too many, if the initial jobless claims are any indication...they skyrocketed to 493K. I don't know about you, but on Oct 3rd we get the September unemployment report...and I'm predicting we break 100K jobs lost.
Don't forget the durable goods report of about -4.5%, which was way bigger than expected. Looks like the auto companies got those Uncle Sam loans just in the nick of time.
Silverbird
Well-known member
Maybe just a local phenomena, but I see building taking place on empty lots purchased during the heyday. Literally the lots were turning into dusty eyesores. There is only so long they can lie fallow, and no one appears to be willing to take on a builder's lease for any of these lots. Even more annoying are half-built "new" communities, with a couple of *very* unhappy residents surrounded by half-built houses, and big empty area for a playground and a school marked off with wood and string. These often were supposed to be "Luxuary" living.
Also, people who gave up last year, are at it again this year, trying to sell. In addition, the house rental market has gone out with a "poof", so last year's "For Rent" signs have been replaced with "For Sale".
Also, people who gave up last year, are at it again this year, trying to sell. In addition, the house rental market has gone out with a "poof", so last year's "For Rent" signs have been replaced with "For Sale".
You know, the country is just going to have to face up to the fact that there were too many houses built and that everyone can't afford to live in a 5000 sq.ft. McMansion. It will take years to sort out and get back to a supply/demand equilibrium.
I actually have seen ideas floated that the government should buy up all the overbuilt homes (which it is already kind of doing) and just bulldoze them down to reduce the excess supply. This may actually come up for serious consideration in the bailout aftermath.
Silverbird
Well-known member
Well, maybe we can use these lots for tree planting or something. The bulldozers bring down the buildings, but they leave nothing behind but dust (and our local officials are prosecuiting the owners using annoyance, safety-for real it's a safety hazard, and pollution laws to force owners to put something in before we get renamed Mini-Dustbowl/Plywood County).
KevinD
Well-known member
Can you imagine the Liberals screaming about bulldozing perfectly good houses with homeless people living in the streets?
:suspicious:Can you imagine the Liberals screaming about bulldozing perfectly good houses with people living in the streets?
Cruel as it sounds, I think most people already living in these neighborhoods would rather have them bulldozed than have homeless people take them over. That's just reality.
KevinD
Well-known member
Can you imagine the Liberals screaming at the "rich" people for complaining about having "poor" people living near them?
XL-entLady
Well-known member
Interesting opinion.
Another view could be that it was corporate greed combined with irresponsible deregulation, exacerbated by an appalling refusal to fix deregulation problems when those problems began to appear. 
I'll just mention that the FBI is voting for the "corporate greed" opinion. :toung:Lady
Silverbird
Well-known member
Well, the new houses we were getting were McMansionvilles, or luxuary condos, so it's not just the poor who got special deals in the time of lend to anyone who can hold a pen. For most this was to be their primary residence, and the add-ons on they could get balooned into a financial fiasco. A dog, a huge house, jacuzzi, granite counter tops and a mortgage.
The poor can't afford them, and they can't be rented because anyone who could pay a reasonable rent for such a huge house would rather rent a townhouse or an apartment closer to DC to save for their own house - and local ordinanances make group houses illeagal.
This wasn't just a handout to the poor, or else no one would have built housing out here in PW, with our anti-immigrant polices. And the bulldozer idea doesn't work, as I said before they just create a big dust problem to replace the empty ugly building problem.
The poor can't afford them, and they can't be rented because anyone who could pay a reasonable rent for such a huge house would rather rent a townhouse or an apartment closer to DC to save for their own house - and local ordinanances make group houses illeagal.
This wasn't just a handout to the poor, or else no one would have built housing out here in PW, with our anti-immigrant polices. And the bulldozer idea doesn't work, as I said before they just create a big dust problem to replace the empty ugly building problem.
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Corepuncher
Well-known member
Economic data today was absolutely horrible in all aspects:
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
The "bailout plan rally" was not very convincing, IMO...and it took away attention from the background economic conditions which are deteriorating.
Full attention will return to this data next week...and I don't see how any of it will be good. Oh, and after hours NASDAQ stocks getting crushed as RIMM missed on earnings...down 18% after hours. Now that's gotta hurt! :nuts:
Updated Tracker COB 9/25/08
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2008 YTD Return: +10.18%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Oct 1st, 2nd or 3rd could be decent entry point givin looming jobs data on the 3rd and shorting ban lifting.
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http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
The "bailout plan rally" was not very convincing, IMO...and it took away attention from the background economic conditions which are deteriorating.
Full attention will return to this data next week...and I don't see how any of it will be good. Oh, and after hours NASDAQ stocks getting crushed as RIMM missed on earnings...down 18% after hours. Now that's gotta hurt! :nuts:
Updated Tracker COB 9/25/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +10.18%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Oct 1st, 2nd or 3rd could be decent entry point givin looming jobs data on the 3rd and shorting ban lifting.
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Agree - the terrible economic data got lost in all the excitement about the bailout. Normally, this type of data would have sparked a pretty good selloff.
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