Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

I just don't see how ANYONE could NOT believe a bailout plan will be passed by the beginning of next week. That being said, those who are playing for a "knee-jerk rally" should have already been buying over the last week on weakness. Therefore, after the bill is passed...I predict a limited rally...but fading late or the next day. Everyone KNOWS the bill will get passed. So I agree with others...sell the news. Use any rally as an opportunity to lighten up. Just wait until the jobs report... > -100K.



Updated Tracker COB 9/26/08
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2008 YTD Return: +10.19%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Wait for next down leg after bill passage rally to buy. Downward catalyst: jobs report
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[Corepuncher]

Back of the envelope calculations on Initial Jobless claims...

4 weeks prior to Last months -84K Jobs taken off payroll: 1765K
4 weeks prior to THIS months's employment report: 1850K

Now I don't know if there is any good correlation between initial jobless claims and the number of jobs added or lost each month in the employment report, but this calculation indicates 85K more jobless claims prior to this month compared to last month. Perhaps that will result in a > -100K job loss. Really anything > -84K is bad because it means things are getting worse.

 

[Show-me]

But, they won't tell you the correct jobs numbers until they revise/correct them in several months. Just like in June they reported 51k lost jobs and revised it this month to 100k.

I would like to know why the DOL is not being investigated for at the very least incompetency.

 

[Silverbird]

I suspect that reporting companies may also be a bit late reporting "corrections". this problem increases when companies are in trouble and reporting is way down on the totem pole. I don't like monthly reports, they usually get adjusted. It's hard to explain "3 month moving average" however, and you will get false smoothing out of downturns and upturns. Also DOL has had its statistical staff (and total staff) cut dramatically; and to me it shows, corrections appear to be more dramatic and coming in slower. I could be wrong, however, I very seldom deal with labor stats. But since I heard the rumor their statiscal staff was cut at least in half, data seems less forthcoming and more funky.

Quarterly data, though not timely, usually yields better data since a lot of the late reports, corrections, etc, will be in. But in uncertain times like this, quarterly data isn't what people want to know, they want to know what's going on now, or as close to "now" as they can get. Take monthly data with a grain of salt; check against quarterly and annual data to see how reliable the "at the scene and uncorrected data" (which is in essense what monthly is) if you deal with labor or other data on a regular basis, or if you wish to delve more into reliability. Especially right now, take monthly with a grain of salt, statistical staff isn't high priority, and due to confidentially issues with the raw reports fed jobs usually can't be filled in with contractors (and takes multiple people to do one report since handlers of the incoming reports are *not* the same as those who consolidate the data for the same confidentially reasons).

Ok, I'll put away the conehead and go back to my regular birdness.

 

[Corepuncher]

I suspect that reporting companies may also be a bit late reporting "corrections". this problem increases when companies are in trouble and reporting is way down on the totem pole. I don't like monthly reports, they usually get adjusted. It's hard to explain "3 month moving average" however, and you will get false smoothing out of downturns and upturns. Also DOL has had its statistical staff (and total staff) cut dramatically; and to me it shows, corrections appear to be more dramatic and coming in slower. I could be wrong, however, I very seldom deal with labor stats. But since I heard the rumor their statiscal staff was cut at least in half, data seems less forthcoming and more funky.

Quarterly data, though not timely, usually yields better data since a lot of the late reports, corrections, etc, will be in. But in uncertain times like this, quarterly data isn't what people want to know, they want to know what's going on now, or as close to "now" as they can get. Take monthly data with a grain of salt; check against quarterly and annual data to see how reliable the "at the scene and uncorrected data" (which is in essense what monthly is) if you deal with labor or other data on a regular basis, or if you wish to delve more into reliability. Especially right now, take monthly with a grain of salt, statistical staff isn't high priority, and due to confidentially issues with the raw reports fed jobs usually can't be filled in with contractors (and takes multiple people to do one report since handlers of the incoming reports are *not* the same as those who consolidate the data for the same confidentially reasons).

Ok, I'll put away the conehead and go back to my regular birdness.

Thanks for the detailed explanation your Birdness!

 

[Corepuncher]

Draft bailout plan...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,429343,00.html

The part that gets me:

"The government can use its power as the owner of mortgages and mortgage backed securities to facilitate loan modifications (such as, reduced principal or interest rate, lengthened time to pay back the mortgage) to help reduce the 2 million projected foreclosures in the next year"

I WANT REDUCED PRINCIPAL OR INTEREST RATE! SHOULD I QUIT PAYING MY LOAN TO QUALIFY???

 

[Davehop21]

Good morning Corepuncher, If you would could you share any ideas on how best to take advantage of this. I am 100% G right now and out of transfers until Oct. 1. When is the earliest I can transfer?

Thanks, Dave at VA

 

[KevinD]

Dave - I just recently learned about the transfer rules so I'll help with that. :embarrest:

If you are out of IFT's for this month you can only request a transfer after 12:00 noon on the last day of the month. Before noon would be considered one of your 2 for the month. After noon and it counts toward the next months 2 IFT's.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=183358&postcount=1873

As for what to transfer into...I have no idea. Maybe somebody will be along to help you out with that soon. :laugh:

 

[Moonshadow]

Getting tired of sitting on the lillypad Dave?
Well at least you can live vicariously through me as I gamble my 25% in the S fund, and when that pays off I'll owe you lunch.
Maybe Congress will wait a couple of days for you to get in your IFT but that's looking doubtful.

 

[Corepuncher]

I can't wait until October gets here - right now how many points can we gain in the next seven trading days - sling shot it.

The answer as of this morning is about -65 points on the S&P, or down about 5%.

So far so good Lilipadders!
Lilipadders UNITE!

 

[Corepuncher]

3/25 - Precariously perched, we are. Way too unstable. I'm predicting a 100 pt long down candle on the S&P before years end.

 

[Rod]

I am predicting you were correcto mundo!

 

[JTH]

The answer as of this morning is about -65 points on the S&P, or down about 5%.

So far so good Lilipadders!
Lilipadders UNITE!

CP you're off be over 40 points

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 9/29/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +10.22%
Today: +0.03% (the big "3"!)
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Buy at least 50% C if still low 1100's by COB Wed.
Sit on the rest for possibly another leg down on Friday with bad employment report and such.
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[presskh]

Updated Tracker COB 9/29/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +10.22%
Today: +0.03% (the big "3"!)
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Buy at least 50% C if still low 1100's by COB Wed.
Sit on the rest for possibly another leg down on Friday with bad employment report and such.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Good strategy, puncher - I was contemplating the same thing, depending on how the market looks tomorrow and Wednesday morning.

 

[Corepuncher]

Good strategy, puncher - I was contemplating the same thing, depending on how the market looks tomorrow and Wednesday morning.

I could literally see us dropping every day this week.

I have very few matches on the matching system. Actually, Method 1 only has 1 match, and Method 2 has zero. Method 3 has 2 matches. Very rare day to be matching!

Anyway, here are the matching dates for each method, and some data for each:

Method 1: 10/07/02 - Market bottomed 2 days later, then proceeded to rally 21% over the next 2 months.
Method 2: No matches using relatively tight constraints.
Method 3: 9/18/01 - Market bottomed 3 days later, then proceeded to rally 18% or so over the next couple months. Of course 6 or 7 months later...we were back at the bottom.

Using this data, perhaps the highest probability event is for the market to bottom this week. However, it could be "different" this time.

The plan is to IFT into the market on Wednesday COB. My move will probably be into the C/S 50/50. I plan on staying long term (2-3 months) and IFT 10% out in increments as we move higher! I'm looking for a 15-25% bounce.

Jeff

Jeff, I believe the odds are in our favor. Thanks to a Jewish holiday, things will be delayed until after Wed. I doubt there will be much rallying until at the very least, they pass a bill, which I doubt will even happen by Thur/Fri.

KD said that the shorting ban has made things worse...some stocks had absolutely zero bids for periods today.

As far as the bill...look, the market was down 2-3% BEFORE the vote in anticipation of the bill actually PASSING!!! Now, at the very least, the bill will be even MORE hostile to financial institutions when it is passed. Good for the US long term, but more pain short term.

It's going to be easy to get emotional for the rest of the week...so come up with a game plan and STICK to it! I'm still trying to figure one out! Whatever I do, unless we break down to 1000, I'm not going 100% stocks. You just have to keep some in cash given the danger out there. Why not go 70 or 80% in stocks? You would still get a very healthy return on a rally, but also have 20-30% to buy even lower if we crash hard.

 

[scrambow]

Man, I guessed I missed the boat on the IFT rules. I found out the hard way that the first two IFTs, no matter where your going is considered as the 2 IFT limit rule. I went from the G to the C/S and went back to the G and used up my two IFTs. I thought (wrongly it seems) any move to the G was a "free" move. Would like to have been in the C/S today and back out to the G tomorrow. Live (and lose!) and learn i guess.

 

[Corepuncher]

nevermind

 

[350zCommTech]

I just "tested" making an IFT today, and it went through! I cancelled it...but just wanted to see if it would work. Damn...I hope it would not have worked yesterday or I might have missed an opportunity?

If it doesn't work, it usually shows a red screen and says you can't do it. Well, it works...and today is still September.

It's after the 1200 noon est. deadline. We're in October now.

 

[Corepuncher]

It's after the 1200 noon est. deadline. We're in October now.

Oh geesh...you're right. I was thinking 12:00 on my computer, not Eastern time. I just got up, sorry!