Corepuncher's Account Talk

Agree - but tax-free???
Sure, because if he had divested them over time instead of in a lump he would probably have paid a much lower rate on the gains than divesting them in a lump. The other way would be to argue ("calculate") which rate to tax them at, usually leading to pointy heads charging one another trying to figure this out. It's sort of like the government shutdown, those stuck working the whole time didn't get anything extra and those forced to sit it out got paid because figuring out who's on first and what's on second would have cost more than just paying everyone the "usual" rate.
I don't think they should have hired an insider for the job but that's another issue.
 
I was thinking this new system will also kill any new company and the public will only buy stocks from the names they know so in the long run the small caps are going to really get hit. If this holds the S & P 500 are truely the big winners here with the sky is the limit.

It's great to be in making money but one wrong turn and yes no charts --- the word heard around the World --Sell Sell Sell.
 
I was thinking this new system will also kill any new company and the public will only buy stocks from the names they know so in the long run the small caps are going to really get hit. If this holds the S & P 500 are truely the big winners here with the sky is the limit.

It's great to be in making money but one wrong turn and yes no charts --- the word heard around the World --Sell Sell Sell.
I'm thinking sort of the opposite - this props up the S&P 500 (it's only finance stocks you can't short) temporarily, but I think they are going to fall as soon as the props are removed. For that reason, I prefer small caps right now. But who knows? That's the ulcer in all this.
 
Originally Posted by Birchtree
I really feel empathy for all the chaste lilly padders that are frozen for the next seven trading days

I feel great about my choice to be on the lilly pad, even if the market goes up next week.

Gold and the Dollar will be the real tell. I predict the dollar to go down, Gold to go up, and stocks to falter. Many traders are STILL short from the 1130's low b/c the rise was manufactured and not fundamental. There is no reason for the Dollar to strengthen now...that reversal we had out of the July lows is now BROKEN due to the governments actions. Looking at the U.S. from abroad...why would anyone want to put their money here now? It is obvious to everyone that we are in serious trouble.

Gold will rocket upwards once more as the dollar falls. I have noticed that there is approximately a 2-1 inverse relationship between the dollar and gold (the dollar wags the gold tail). I like to look at UUP for dollar, and GLD for gold.

How can anyone make a bullish argument for the future of the American economy given our current state? Long gold, short dollar, short stocks. Cha-Ching. Oh...and Oil will continue to go up once the dollar tanks. Goldman's forecast of 150 oil by years end is now BACK IN PLAY IMO...given the recent developments.
 
maybe we are all joined at the hip, and they are relatively in even worse situation than we are :confused:

That's the main reason for some of the fed action to date, Fran/Fed for example. It was to protect the preferred foreign stockholder investment. The world holds alot of our toxic waste paper.
 
That's the main reason for some of the fed action to date, Fran/Fed for example. It was to protect the preferred foreign stockholder investment. The world holds alot of our toxic waste paper.

Yeah, and once the taxpayers turn their toxic debt into gold, they are going to "get the hell outta Dodge" and put their money to work elsewhere. US is too risky.
 
Root causes of hyperinflation

The main cause of hyperinflation is a massive and rapid increase in the amount of money, which is not supported by growth in the output of goods and services. This results in an imbalance between the supply and demand for the money (including currency and bank deposits), accompanied by a complete loss of confidence in the money, similar to a bank run. Enactment of legal tender laws and price controls to prevent discounting the value of paper money relative to gold, silver, hard currency, or commodities, fails to force acceptance of a paper money which lacks intrinsic value. If the entity responsible for printing a currency promotes excessive money printing, with other factors contributing a reinforcing effect, hyperinflation usually continues. Often the body responsible for printing the currency cannot physically print paper currency faster than the rate at which it is devaluing, thus neutralising their attempts to stimulate the economy.

Hyperinflation is generally associated with paper money because the means to increasing the money supply with paper money is the simplest: add more zeroes to the plates and print, or even stamp old notes with new numbers. There have been numerous episodes of hyperinflation, followed by a return to "hard money". Older economies would revert to hard currency and barter when the circulating medium became excessively devalued, generally following a "run" on the store of value.

Hyperinflation effectively wipes out the purchasing power of private and public savings, distorts the economy in favor of extreme consumption and hoarding of real assets, causes the monetary base whether specie or hard currency to flee the country, and makes the afflicted area anathema to investment. Hyperinflation is met with drastic remedies, whether by imposing a shock therapy of slashing government expenditures or by altering the currency basis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
 
Checking the tracker today, 5 people are over 10% (I know Optionman was higher than his tracker too...could be close?). NSURF...what a whipsaw you have had! Does your neck hurt?

:) Awesome! :)


optionman--autotracker: 8.08% Actual 10.09%

BTW Congrats CP. I see you've remained up in the top 10 consistently also. Trade well my friend.

optionman:cool:
 
Just found this...it basically echoes many others.

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=1759

THE BAILOUT PLAN - what does it mean? - especially for gold and T Bonds...

originally published September 20th, 2008

» Printable Version

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Many investors in the Precious Metals sector are worried that the "bailout plan" announced yesterday will resolve the crisis with the effect that things will return to normal and gold and silver will as a result go into retreat once more. Nothing could be further than the truth. There are several important observations to make regarding the "bailout plan". The first is that it is obviously born out of desperation. The second is that it is Grand Larceny as its aim is to unload all of the debts and obligations accrued by banks, brokers and various other large corporations and institutions as a result of years of recklessness and incompetance and sheer greed off onto the taxpayer, the underlying reason for this being the extensive crony connections between Wall St and Washington and the associated enormous political clout Wall St exercises in Washington. The third observation is that as far as arresting the financial crisis is concerned, it simply can't work and won`t work - the proposed $1.2 trillion slush fund intended to fund this giant garbage dump is still peanuts compared to the towering $47 trillion debt market and the even larger derivatives time bomb. Not only will the bailout plan not work, but it is set to spread the contagion to a crucial area that has so far been sacrosanct - the US T-bond market. There are several reasons for this. One is that continued government interference in the free market to defend wrongdoers from the consequences of their actions is rapidly destroying Wall Street`s credibility as a global financial center. A blatant example of this is the banning of short selling in the stocks of selected companies which amounts to nothing less than criminal interference in free market processes, which is what you would expect to see implemented in a Command Economy - this is the sort of thing the Commies used to do. The second is that the US government and the Fed are clearly treating international investors as idiots - does it seriously expect them to go on endlessly buying Treasury paper when they know that the proceeds are going to be used to bail out and prop up companies that have arrived at the brink of collapse due to mismanagement and incompetance? They are not going to and that is the reason for the collapse in T-bonds on Friday and when foreigners stop buying Treasury paper the US government has got itself a big, big problem - the result will be skyrocketing interest rates and an economic implosion.
Experienced gardeners know that if you want to maintain the health and vigor of a rose bush, you must on occasion make the sacrifice of cutting off the big, woody branches - endlessly cutting off small twigs simply does not work. In the same way periodic recessions within an economy serve to weed out inefficiency and excess, and create the conditions for renewed stable growth. However, in the "I want it all, I want it now" economic kindergarten of the United States of recent years, recession has come to be regarded as something gross and unacceptable, something to be avoided at all costs. This was why at a time when a recession would have been painful, but have had a necessary purging effect, the Greenspan Fed averted it by dropping real interest rates to near zero in the early years of this decade, thus sowing the seeds of the housing boom and the now unfolding disaster. Now the United States is like an old gnarled rose bush full of big woody branches and totally gone to seed - the only thing that will save it is to take an axe to it. The axeman is coming to the United States, and the desperate and pathetic attempts of politicians and corrupt business leaders, as displayed by their seedy and unwholesome display late last week, to prevent his arrival can only delay it a little, not prevent it. It's going to be painful folks, but as Mrs Thatcher, The Iron Lady of Great Britain used to say, "There is no alternative". Mrs Thatcher transformed Britain by taking painful but necessary steps to sweep away inefficiency and decay, which resulted in the relative prosperity of recent times, although that is now fading fast due to the UK having since followed the US down the debt path. Of course we can only make a limited comparison with Britain in the 1970's because the systemic problems now facing the United States are infinitely worse.
The big danger now is that the T-Bond "gravy train" will come to a screeching halt. If that happens the United States as we know it is finished. Having gutted its own manufacturing base, partly through outsourcing, and partly through simple lack of competitiveness, it is economically dependant on inflows of foreign capital and goods, a sizeable part of which is supplied by means of selling Treasury paper. If foreigners suddenly decide that they have better uses for their money, sales of T-bonds could collapse, leading to an immediate credit and funding crisis in the debt-wracked US economy and in order to attract buyers rates will have to be ramped up dramatically, which in the current fragile environment would lead swiftly to an economic implosion. The abuses of funds now being perpetrated by the government in order to bail out unworthy corporations and institutions are greatly increasing the risks of this happening.

gold6month200908.gif
Some investors in Precious Metals are worried that the government riding to the rescue with its bailout plan will "save the day", and restore relative normality to the markets so that people will go back to buying bank and financial stocks and dumping resource stocks, especially as gold reacted quite sharply yesterday. As stated in the opening paragraph of this article nothing could be further from the truth. The bailout plan is in itself hugely inflationary, as it requires massive amounts of money which, as it does not currently exist, will have to be conjured up out of thin air. As we can see on the 6-month gold chart, the reaction yesterday was actually modest compared to the rise that preceeded it, and reasonable given that gold had become so overbought after what was clearly a breakout move. Rather than worry about whether the bailout plan will spoil gold's party, gold and silver investors should consider that the huge surge in gold on Wednesday was actually caused by Smart Money getting wind of the bailout plan ahead of the public and piling in. Viewed from this perspective the outlook is clearly strongly bullish.

usb6month200908.gif
You were warned of an imminent collapse in US T-bonds in an article posted on the site on Wednesday, which was written following candelstick analysis of the 30-year T Bond chart. Bonds plummeted on Friday and this move is believed to mark the start of what is likely to turn into a savage and possibly unprecedented bearmarket in US bonds.
 
Gold Up....Dollar DOWN.

Oil Up...Treasuries DOWN.

Whats Up? We're going DOWN.

Sorry I am such a CLOWN.

If you're in I hope you don't DROWN.

Think about it...on days where bonds are getting CRUSHED, the market should be ROARING.

Flight to safety is not T bills anymore, it is Gold and Oil.

The Key is...is this a short term move, or a trend. If this trend continues, it will be very very bad.
 
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Holy moly the Dollar just fell off a cliff.

EDIT: Then rebounded quickly but safe to say someone unloaded a big chunk of dollars.
 
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What a day. Interesting the F fund, although AGG was down 1.58%, only went down 0.10%. Wonder if there is gonna be a big difference in AGG/F tomorrow?

Dollar down, oil up, Gold up, bonds down. Will be interesting to see if this is a trend or a fear reaction from reading too many blogs over the weekend :-)


I think if we do not go down hard again, we could be somewhat rangebound for a while (although the ranges are tremendous!)

Updated Tracker COB 9/22/08
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2008 YTD Return: +10.15%
Today: +0.03% (the big 3!)
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Watch and wait. Still think October will be bad.
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Hey there Mr. Market I'm sitting in G now so you can go ahead and continue tanking. The further down you go the happier I'll be...
 
Six more trading days to watch, and we'll be FREEEEEEEEE!

So far so good my friend!


Don't you think we will see a possible crash 10/1/08. I am still holding 100% C Fund if it gets to $14.75 I am parking me arse in the G Fund.
This maket is bad, charts are useless, the bailout is a joke and America will not be fooled.

This bailout won't even be in place in October all this is was a stall tactic to protect GOLDMAN SACS - Paulson & his conflict of interest Co.
 
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