coolhand's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

I'm lost

 

[coolhand]

Bartender, I'll have what he's having.

 

[dannyboy]

Dannyboy has a lot of knowledge and I think he’s very knowledgeable.

D

My bad, I was in a big hurry and didn’t check before hitting send. The he mentioned referring to Coolhand. I could blame this on a bad wreck that I was in ( 6 weeks in a coma, broken back, etc) but I can thank GOD for helping me to recover.
D

 

[nasa1974]

My bad, I was in a big hurry and didn’t check before hitting send. The he mentioned referring to Coolhand. I could blame this on a bad wreck that I was in ( 6 weeks in a coma, broken back, etc) but I can thank GOD for helping me to recover.
D

Glad to hear you are on the road to recovery.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM mean average fell almost 20 pts. That still keeps it in a bullish posture, but I note that the bears are now fully short and leveraged. There still isn't a lot of them, so there remains a healthy respect for the longer term trend (up). While I am not trusting of this market, I do respect the trend, so until something breaks I am looking higher.

 

[mmk119]

A rose by any other NAAIM...
May the force be with us

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM mean average dipped a little more than 2 pts., which is almost meaningless. The reading itself remains bullish, so these money managers continue to respect the longer term bullish trend. The bears remain fully short and leveraged and they have been on the right side of this market in the short term. I think it bears repeating what I said a week or two ago that this is an election year and that generally means the market finds a way to stay afloat if not outright advance over time. Be that as it may, this is not a normal election year (is anything normal anymore?), so we don't want to get complacent. But as long as NAAIM remains bullish, the odds are generally pretty good that the downside is limited.

 

[coolhand]

Well, since my last post the market has given us some selling pressure of a more concerning nature. I would not say it fell apart, because it didn't, but is it an early glimpse of more to come? Even if the market starts to retrace its short losses, will market participants sell the rallies?

If you are now harboring trepidation about this market, you can join NAAIM in that sentiment. This week's NAAIM mean average fell about 18 pts, which now puts the reading between neutral and modestly bullish. The bears remain fully short and leveraged, but there are more of them now. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. With such a reading we can't be sure what the market might do over the next week, but maybe the oversold nature of this market sees price retrace at least some of those losses. Maybe.

Basically, NAAIM is now playing both sides of the market. No doubt, many will want to buy the dip and that has worked for some time on hard sell offs. This time may be no different. So, it is up to each individuals personal risk tolerance how you want to be positioned moving forward. I wish everyone luck in however you decide to approach current market conditions.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM mean average dipped about 3.5 pts, which makes it neutral to my eye. The bears are pressing a bit more with their fully short and leveraged positions. The bulls remain long and leveraged. So, these money managers are playing both sides of this market again this week, which is not a surprise.

I am remined that this market has not seen a "serious" sell off in a long time. I am talking about a take-no-prisoners kind of correction like we had back in 2008. I can't predict such, but don't the odds keep rising as time goes on? Just sayin'. Of course, this market could keep gyrating and keep both sides guessing too, which is probably why NAAIM is neutral.

I wish everyone the best in how you approach the current financial uncertainty.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM mean average ticked up almost 2.5 pts., which is not meaningful. These managers continue to play both sides.

 

[coolhand]

Okay, this week we got a big move in the NAAIM mean average as it jumped higher by almost 30 pts. That puts it back into a bullish posture, so the downside would appear limited once again (for this week anyway). The bears went from fully short and leveraged to just fully short (no leverage) and there are much fewer of them now. Most of the NAAIM financial movement flowed back into the fully long and leveraged side of the market. I am now looking for the market to generally move higher into the next week.

 

[mmk119]

 

[nasa1974]

Okay, this week we got a big move in the NAAIM mean average as it jumped higher by almost 30 pts. That puts it back into a bullish posture, so the downside would appear limited once again (for this week anyway). The bears went from fully short and leveraged to just fully short (no leverage) and there are much fewer of them now. Most of the NAAIM financial movement flowed back into the fully long and leveraged side of the market. I am now looking for the market to generally move higher into the next week.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM mean average dipped less than 2.5 pts, which keeps it bullish for another week. I do note that the bearish positions of these money managers went from fully short and no leverage last week to fully short and fully leveraged this week. We've seen this before and sometimes it works out for the bears and sometimes it does not. But this is smart money, so we want to make note of it, but still lean toward the bullish side overall.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading sees the mean average of this exposure index rise a little more than 5 pts. That keeps this indicator in a bullish configuration. Interestingly, the bears remain fully short and leveraged, but there are not many of them so there isn't as much risk taking as there might appear. Of course, the bulls remain long and leveraged.

I continue to expect this market to find ways to push higher (week by week). I would like to point out that the S&P 500 is the main index that this exposure index tracks, which correlates to our C fund.

 

[nasa1974]

The latest NAAIM reading sees the mean average of this exposure index rise a little more than 5 pts. That keeps this indicator in a bullish configuration. Interestingly, the bears remain fully short and leveraged, but there are not many of them so there isn't as much risk taking as there might appear. Of course, the bulls remain long and leveraged.

I continue to expect this market to find ways to push higher (week by week). I would like to point out that the S&P 500 is the main index that this exposure index tracks, which correlates to our C fund.

Sure would be nice if the bulls helped out the "S" fund a little.

 

[mmk119]

:biggthumpup:

Sure would be nice if the bulls helped out the "S" fund a little.

 

[coolhand]

Not much change to the NAAIM reading this week. The mean average dipped a little more than 2 pts, which keeps the sentiment bullish. Only minor changes in the numbers, which is of no real significance. The bears are fully short and leveraged, while the bulls remain fully long and leveraged. I continue to look higher overall for the next week or so.

 

[WorkFE]

I continue to look higher overall for the next week or so.

A real optimist after the last 3 days. A true Hero. :smile:

 

[coolhand]

A real optimist after the last 3 days. A true Hero. :smile:

I am only following smart money sentiment. Do I know more than financial professionals who would appear to have proven track records or they wouldn't be around for long? Some of them may have inside information. I respect that possibility.

Having said that, this market is not sitting on a solid foundation to say the least. But good luck trying to predict the day that "it's different this time".