coolhand's Account Talk

[NellyBelle]

What's your thoughts on this? We are in a new bull market, in an upwardly moving channel with higher highs and higher low, above the 200 day moving average.

 

[coolhand]

What's your thoughts on this? We are in a new bull market, in an upwardly moving channel with higher highs and higher low, above the 200 day moving average.

There is a very real possibility we hit new all-time highs in the weeks/months ahead. While I won't predict it, that's my expectation. Things can still change, which is obviously why I follow certain indicators.

 

[coolhand]

The market took a pause today, which was needed.




Modest losses on the day, but no technical issues at all.

Breadth actually ticked a bit higher and remains bullish.

NAAIM got more bulled up, with fewer bears among them. They are very bullish as a group now.

I remain bullish.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

So CH, you have been bullish for some time now.....do you think we are back in a ‘bull market’ now?

 

[coolhand]

So CH, you have been bullish for some time now.....do you think we are back in a ‘bull market’ now?

I am, but I try to never get complacent. My indicators are half the battle. I also follow certain websites and professionals to help shape my personal perspective to go along with the indicators. Those tend to give me a longer term point of view.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Friday's positive action added to huge gains last week for all 3 TSP stock funds.




As the news gets more dire, the market rallies even more. On volume. Upward momentum is rising. RSI is now overbought, but I'd not get overly concerned about that, though a pullback could happen any time now.



Breadth is really stretching it to the upside (bullish).

TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish (no change). We already knew that the smart money was bullish and we can see why.

It is very possible that this rally gets silly to the upside. I'm not predicting such, but I would not be surprised.

I remain bullish.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Huge volume moves to the upside. Capitulation + Whales cannon-balling into the fish tank last week.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Huge volume moves to the upside. Capitulation + Whales cannon-balling into the fish tank last week.

View attachment 46371

Market is on a mission.

 

[coolhand]

The market picked up this week where it left off last week, with more gains.




Price is moving swiftly to the upside as the 200 dma fades into the distance on both charts. Volume remains heavy and momentum continued to build steam to the upside.



It's not often we see such a dramatic move in breadth on the NYSE. This chart says it all and it remains seriously bullish.

While a pullback could come at any time, it isn't wise to step in front of a moving train (that's picking up steam).

I remain bullish.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

This is a Spectacular run up. Never seen anything like this! Wow!

 

[coolhand]

The market pulled back today, which was needed after the past week's worth of gains.




The charts remain quite bullish, of course.

Breadth dipped, but also remains very bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Stocks continued to consolidate today as prices tumbled.




The S&P hasn't lost much, while the DWCPF has fared a bit worse, but that is not unusual for small-mid caps. I suspect that price may continue to consolidate, which could mean a price range for a time once a bottom has been made, followed by a resumption of the march to higher prices.



Breadth is also falling back, but it does remain bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The bears have ambushed the bulls and the 200 dma is now being tested on the S&P.

NAAIM came in less bullish, but still bullish. This reading suggests the uptrend remains in place, but weaker bulls will get tested.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I called recent selling pressure consolidation. Today, I'm calling it an attack (by the bears). The action was quite bearish.




That huge gap down is reminiscent of how the big sell-off started back in late February, but this one is more pronounced. Price closed below the 200 dma (support) on both charts. Momentum is falling (quickly). Volume was high (not good).



Breadth remains bullish (not today, but overall), but that's small consolidation given how fast it's fallen.

I reported earlier today that NAAIM was less bullish, but they were still bullish overall as a group. My concern is that something may have changed that may influence the smart money and we won't know about it till next Thursday.

I would not be so concerned except the action is suspicious. Like a switch was pulled (which is what I said at the start of February's deep decline).

It's possible that since the 200 dma was broken, a lot of bulls may have jumped off the train. It could be a bear trap. Maybe. Futures are flat to modestly bullish right now, but a lot technical damage has been done and it may take a few more trading days to get a better idea of where the market is going. If the market doesn't firm up fairly quickly, we could see much lower prices.

I was bullish largely because the smart money finally flipped bullish last week. And I am going to remain tentatively bullish for now, but this market has to convince me (soon) that there really is a floor under it.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls got jumped by the bears last week and all 3 TSP stock funds were hammered as a result. It isn't normal market behavior, but then again when was the last time we saw normal?




Support at the 200 dma on both charts was broken last Thursday, but the bulls bounced the market on Friday, though it was a volatile trading day. The bulls need to seize control soon or risk bigger losses.



Breadth bounced as well and remains bullish, but under attack.

So, NAAIM was less bullish last Thursday, but they were still bullish as a group. Thursday's decline puts their bullishness into question, but we only get 1 sentiment reading a week. Keep in mind that they got bullish when the 200 dma was claimed by the bulls. Now that same average is being challenged, so I suspect NAAIM may be neutral right now, but that's an educated guess.

I am going to a neutral stance on stocks until I can see whether the 200 dma does in fact provide support. This may be an interesting week.

 

[coolhand]

Wow, keep your head down because the "bullets" are flying. The war between the bulls and bears continued today, with the bears drawing first blood, but the bulls fought back to bring price back into positive territory in late afternoon trade.




So far, the bulls appear to be winning the battle over support at the 200 dma to this point, but the tug-of-war may not be over.



Breadth ticked higher today and remains bullish.

I am remaining neutral given the volatile nature of trading at the moment, but I suspect the bulls will prevail eventually. That's just a hunch, but it's based on my perspective formed from sources outside financial circles.

 

[coolhand]

We got another volatile session today, but this time the bulls took immediate control to the upside and bears tried to bring it back down. Of course, the bulls won the battle with some decent gains on the day.




We can see that about half the losses have been retraced and perhaps a bit more than that.



Breadth continues to rise and remains bullish.

So far, the 200 dma has held and the highs are not far off. I am looking for a continued bias higher, but the bears might have other ideas in the short term.

I am now neutral to modestly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Another somewhat volatile day and this time the bears won the battle. Losses were limited, however. Still, we can see that both sides continue to fight for control of price direction, but the bulls have been the winner over time.




Volume was lower than average. We still need to watch that 200 dma.



Breadth pulled back, but remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. That will help shape our perspective for another few days. I remain neutral to modestly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

The tug-of-war continued (no surprise) today as the S&P 500 and Wilshire closed near the neutral line.




The charts remain bullish overall despite the volatilty.



Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

NAAIM got more bullish this week. I suspect that when the 200 dma held, they saw that as proof that the bulls had control. There is not much shorting going on with this group. So, they are solidly bullish.

I am moving from neutral to modestly bullish to just plain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

The market posted pretty decent gains last week, but it wasn't obvious early on how the week would go as the 200 dma was being attacked from the previous week. To this point, the bulls have so far defended that key average. Will it hold? Well, NAAIM came in pretty bullish and that's about as strong an indicator as I can point to. Keep in mind that the smart money does not have a crystal ball, but they do have contacts and info that we generally do not. That's part of what makes them smart money.




Price is holding up fairly well since the 200 dma test. I don't think the bears are going to go away, but they are not in control. However, volatility may remain with us for a time.



Breadth is still positive, but it is not marching higher at the moment.

TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish, which aligns with the bullish NAAIM reading.

I am bullish as we head into the new week.