coolhand's Account Talk

[nnuut]

Looks like I may have to exit myself, but have no more IFTs left this Month so I would be stuck in the "G". It happens every time, I get out and the next 2 weeks are straight up, damnit!! Huummmm?:suspicious:

 

[coolhand]

Looks like I may have to exit myself, but have no more IFTs left this Month so I would be stuck in the "G". It happens every time, I get out and the next 2 weeks are straight up, damnit!! Huummmm?:suspicious:

I don't have any either. I think I have no choice but to err on the side of caution today.

Here's something for you I funder's to think about.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=110055

 

[airlift]

I am probably exiting but will wait until 11:30 to see if other analists have other views for this options expiration week. Please post any views of importance. Tia.

 

[nasa1974]

I don't have any either. I think I have no choice but to err on the side of caution today.

Here's something for you I funder's to think about.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=110055

Hey guys,

Instead of pulling everything back into the G fund why not use the <1% option. Percentages in the funds and which funds would be your choice. But it still keeps you in the game for the rest of the month and limits your losses. I normally use 5% as a baseline for the <1% option. But that is just me. Good luck.

 

[airlift]

NY Empire manufacturing numbers came out way above expectations (12.08 vs. 3.00). Does this change sentiment to the upside?

 

[coolhand]

Too much conflicting data. With little flexiblity in TSP I have no choice but to be cautious here. All cash for now. Need to see where this market is going.

If we had stops it might be a different story.

 

[JTH]

Too much conflicting data. With little flexiblity in TSP I have no choice but to be cautious here. All cash for now. Need to see where this market is going.

If we had stops it might be a different story.

Brother ya ain't kidding, today's a good day to be in cash

 

[airlift]

I went 100 G. Too bad, eh! We'll see if this is a bear trap soon.

 

[coolhand]

I went 100 G. Too bad, eh! We'll see if this is a bear trap soon.

Hope for the best. Maybe a reversal this afternoon, but there's no shortage of sellers right now.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls may not like this latest stickan post. Maybe G fund won't be so bad after all. We'll see.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=110073

 

[turbo23dog]

That posting sure contains lots of sun, moon and stars along with the technical analysis. A bit too much for me.

 

[CrabClaw]

I decided to stay in, hopefully this bleeding will stay contained at the 980 level

 

[coolhand]

That posting sure contains lots of sun, moon and stars along with the technical analysis. A bit too much for me.

He's a hard core TA. I don't pay attention to the astral stuff, but he's no slouch when it comes to technical analysis.

 

[wwwtractor]

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:UDN Just looking closely at big gap down.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJ8i8FKAwec&feature=related

 

[coolhand]

Important post. IYB concedes the SS was a valid sell signal. Tough market folks. Glad I decided to bail.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=110084

 

[poolman]

Important post. IYB concedes the SS was a valid sell signal. Tough market folks. Glad I decided to bail.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=110084

Hey Coolhand,

I respect the Sell and Buy Signals of the Seven Sentinels but IMO It won't last the remainder of August.

"The seven dropped into sell territory Wednesday, then Friday, then today put an exclamation mark behind the signal. Pretty clear cut signal. The market doesn't care a whit what I thought or expected. The market calls the shots, and I can only obey listen and obey."

The Closing TSP Prices for last Wednesday (08/12/09) were:

Aug 12, 2009

G - Fund 12.9645
F - Fund 12.9965
C - Fund 11.8247
S - Fund 14.7674
I - Fund 16.8048


The Sell Signal came about mid/month and with our 2 IFT restriction makes it Brutally Hard to solely use this indicator in certain circumstances. That was the problem I had with it this month. We are quite possibly looking at a 7% correction but IMO this will come hard and fast. I still think we will have a Higher End Of Month than when the SS Called there Sell Signal.

This Market is always trying to do the unexpected. Example.. We have 2 or 3 pretty hard down day's. Everyone gets scared chitless and sells. Then we get an explosive up day and the market takes off.

With the PPE supposedly out of the market's they will be there if things get bad enough.

 

[Birchtree]

Corrections that are hard, fast and short are the classic signs of a bull market. If we rally tomorrow I'll try and do my part as a buyer to help the cause.

 

[coolhand]

The Closing TSP Prices for last Wednesday (08/12/09) were:

Aug 12, 2009

G - Fund 12.9645
F - Fund 12.9965
C - Fund 11.8247
S - Fund 14.7674
I - Fund 16.8048


The Sell Signal came about mid/month and with our 2 IFT restriction makes it Brutally Hard to solely use this indicator in certain circumstances. That was the problem I had with it this month. We are quite possibly looking at a 7% correction but IMO this will come hard and fast. I still think we will have a Higher End Of Month than when the SS Called there Sell Signal.

This Market is always trying to do the unexpected. Example.. We have 2 or 3 pretty hard down day's. Everyone gets scared chitless and sells. Then we get an explosive up day and the market takes off.

With the PPE supposedly out of the market's they will be there if things get bad enough.

From IBD:

You might be interested to know that IBD in The Big Picture colume in tomorrow's edition will make the call "market in correction". Today was the 5th distibution day in last 4 weeks for the S&P500. And it was a distribution day that was made with conviction. It could not be mistaken. It was decisive. Still the call was unusual for IBD. The call went directly from "market in uptrend", to "market in correction". It is usually from "market in uptrend" to "market under pressure". Then after another decisive distribution day the call moves to "market in correction". The 5th distribution day today was so decisive they skipped the "market under pressure" and went directly to "market in correction".


And so it goes. It's nice to try and guess what the market is going to do next, but the reality is no one knows. We try to minimize risk and get it correct enough to outperform the S&P. (at least for myself)

You may be right Poolman. But it's not something I can put a lot of faith in in either direction at the moment. It's only two weeks till I get my new IFTs, so it's not a critical call right now, unless of course the market drops further than many expect.

The PPT is not what it used to be. It's different under Ben then it was under Alan. The liquidity being used now is our taxpayer dollars. (Or should I say our future taxpayer dollars ) Or maybe our grandchildren's taxpayer dollars. :worried:

 

[Bullitt]

On Friday, they said the technical picture was good on SPX-as in above it's 10 DMA and only 2 distribution days. We went from Market in Uptrend to Market in Correction overnight, unreal. I know that most of the time those distribution days are subjective, meaning big volume while spinning wheels, railroad tracks, and closing up but at the low of the day, but they haven't been mentioning caution.

The Nasdaq does have 5 if today's volume was higher than Friday. If it is, it's barely more volume. There's times when they'll not count options X volume because it's not accurate. I wonder how they've managed to factor in flash trade volume.