coolhand's Account Talk

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fedgolfer said:
I love the $BPCOMPQ (13,.89) chart from 7 sentinels... although i'm leaning on the bull side of the fence that it may not pierce the lower bollinger like it did in may, leaving a possibility for a high above the sell signal.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p00210748467
Click to expand...

OPEX is a major part of the trading activity this week and not necessarily indicative of what the market will do after Friday. I knew yesterday and today would probably end up with gains, although I couldn't see it on Monday when I went to cash. Really doesn't matter at this point. I've got a sell that I'm going to follow until the next buy signal.
 
coolhand said:
OPEX is a major part of the trading activity this week and not necessarily indicative of what the market will do after Friday. I knew yesterday and today would probably end up with gains, although I couldn't see it on Monday when I went to cash. Really doesn't matter at this point. I've got a sell that I'm going to follow until the next buy signal.
Click to expand...

CH, cool... I wasn't trying to persuade or talk you to one side or another, just put it out there for the TSP community to digest. You're obviously more disciplined, I think I see a countertrend and will probably get burned.

Anyway, OPEX calendar now is like it was in May on the SPX candlesticks... lots of similarities. But I haven't heard many talking about it which tells my gut its a pattern that may repeat. LOVE THE THREAD, keep it up!
 
coolhand said:
And we just had a SS sell signal...hmmmm

http://www.youtube.com/user/myspacesecrets
Click to expand...

Another view of the same sort of study...

road-to-recovery-large.gif


The pre-bottom does not show the whole collapse for gently falling crashes like ours (:p). This is to initiate the graph at a single point - that being the market 'bottom'.

This tells us the obvious. We really, REALLY, don't want a double bottom. REALLY don't want it...

And, if we don't dump again, we have already lived through 80% - 90% of the gains we will see anytime soon :sick:

Yup, rather scary...
 
That's a very poor case study. Analysts get paid six figures to come up with a chart plotted on top of the 1929 crash? Put a few charts together that appear in somewhat lockstep for a short while and we're supposed to expect history to repeat.

I wonder what chart he would have plotted the 1929 crash over if he was an analyst in 1929.
 
The rally after the panic of 1907 ran up 61% in nine months. Over the next two years the 1907 rally gained 90%. My bet is that we do even better than that. A 57% run takes us to 1044 on the SPX. The SPX is now 15% over the 200 day SMA for the first time since 1999. The SPX has not closed 20% above its 200 day SMA since 1983. If we don't correct this week there is nothing but air to 1100. Right now the SPX is at risk of going parabolic.
 
Regarding you last post, lets look at a key word:

"Economic activity in both the U.S. and around the world appears to be "leveling out," and "the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good," Bernanke said in a speech at an annual Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo."

Mommy told me that everything in life is not as it appears.

"...consumers and businesses are still having trouble getting loans. The situation is not back to normal, he said.
Restoring the free flow of credit is a critical component to a lasting recovery."

Yeah, tell the banks to get off their trading desks trying to make their money back from us working class Americans from the ridiculous risks they took, and get back to loaning money to business and consumers.
 
Let's face reality here - the true risk was taken by giving subprime mortgages to the at risk minority popluation. They are the ones walking away from their responsibilities - heading back to public housing. Blame the liberal Donkey policies that precipitated this mess - now we all suffer. The Obama administration now has an extra $250B - let's increase those welfare checks so these people can pay their mortgages - that's my less painful solution.
 
Not true now, most of the foreclosures now are regular prime loans, from people who have been laid off, or can't pay their medical bills.
 
Birchtree said:
Let's face reality here - the true risk was taken by giving subprime mortgages to the at risk minority popluation. They are the ones walking away from their responsibilities - heading back to public housing. Blame the liberal Donkey policies that precipitated this mess - now we all suffer. The Obama administration now has an extra $250B - let's increase those welfare checks so these people can pay their mortgages - that's my less painful solution.
Click to expand...
The clever minds after commissions no matter what in the financial services companies and the immoral mortgage brokers were just as greedy or more so....and they knew what they were doing. See the smirk on the financial guy's face on the Faber CNBC report when asked if he knew better. His defense: had to do it to remain competitive, just as the broker said. And throw in government tipping too far toward letting the free market, despite human tendencies, run it's way. Government, ostensibly for us, took a risk too. How about get the 2,000 "wall streeters" who should be in New England pillories or better yet Saudi jails awaiting Koran justice. OK, better now.
 
Silverbird said:
Not true now, most of the foreclosures now are regular prime loans, from people who have been laid off, or can't pay their medical bills.
Click to expand...

Of even larger consequence is those folks who bought at the top, can still pay their mortgages, but are so far underwater in equity that walking away from the property appears to be a very attractive option.

And they're leaving.

Check this out.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/hidden-backlog-of-foreclosures.html

My Son-in-Law and Stepfather have been waiting for their respective banks to foreclose on their properties for over a year. This is reality. That's partly what Mish is saying in that arcticle. This market is all about emotion and raking in cash. It has nothing to do with fundamentals at the moment. And that's why this market won't go down. It's easy pickings right now for the bulls. And the bears better figure it out sooner rather than later.
 
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Uptrend said:
Yeah, tell the banks to get off their trading desks trying to make their money back from us working class Americans from the ridiculous risks they took, and get back to loaning money to business and consumers.
Click to expand...


Exactly.

My only point was if enough people are convinced that things are getting better we'll be headed lower. Probably in a big way too. But it would appear we are just not there yet.
 
coolhand said:
Exactly.

My only point was if enough people are convinced that things are getting better we'll be headed lower. Probably in a big way too. But it would appear we are just not there yet.
Click to expand...

Just one guys opinion and he is going defensive thru stocks, but he kinda feels the same way as the other link.

http://www.fool.com/investing/divid...-this-before-the-green-shoot-bubble-pops.aspx

Interesting read, I know, I've been buying more defensive/dividend stocks the past 6 months of so.

Have a good one, :D
CB
 
Birchtree said:
http://www.slopeofhope.com/
Click to expand...

He's not alone.

Fortunately for me, I've got three ROTH IRAs that have had a 100% stock position from beginning to end, so at least I'm getting a better return there at the moment.

But it's only a matter of time before I have my day with TSP. The last two missteps with the SS cost me at least 10%. But I didn't lose any capital. I just missed an opportunity.
 
CountryBoy said:
Just one guys opinion and he is going defensive thru stocks, but he kinda feels the same way as the other link.

http://www.fool.com/investing/divid...-this-before-the-green-shoot-bubble-pops.aspx

Interesting read, I know, I've been buying more defensive/dividend stocks the past 6 months of so.

Have a good one, :D
CB
Click to expand...

Things are just too screwed up in a major way for the rally to be permanent. The fact that Ben is so cautious in his optimism is a big clue. At least he's hedging his words. This market is still on very shaky ground, but right now the banks are having their way with the market. Eventually they'll go short again and take out a lot of the bulls. Of course that won't happen until after the bears have had their portfolios demolished. :suspicious:

But being flat right now is a whole lot better than being short. So it's not all bad for those simply on the sidelines.
 
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