coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

On Friday, they said the technical picture was good on SPX-as in above it's 10 DMA and only 2 distribution days. We went from Market in Uptrend to Market in Correction overnight, unreal. I know that most of the time those distribution days are subjective, meaning big volume while spinning wheels, railroad tracks, and closing up but at the low of the day, but they haven't been mentioning caution.

The Nasdaq does have 5 if today's volume was higher than Friday. If it is, it's barely more volume. There's times when they'll not count options X volume because it's not accurate. I wonder how they've managed to factor in flash trade volume.

One last note before I call a night. I agree that the market likes to fool the most people, but today's deep decline may not be what it appears to a contrarian. With all the hype of "recession over" and "new bull market" how can we feel comfortable that we'll turn quickly?

I am not making any predictions here. I have a sell signal now that I'm honoring until the next buy. I've said I could see both sides of the argument, but that sell signal is where I'm putting my money now.

GLTA!

 

[poolman]

One last note before I call a night. I agree that the market likes to fool the most people, but today's deep decline may not be what it appears to a contrarian. With all the hype of "recession over" and "new bull market" how can we feel comfortable that we'll turn quickly?

I am not making any predictions here. I have a sell signal now that I'm honoring until the next buy. I've said I could see both sides of the argument, but that sell signal is where I'm putting my money now.

GLTA!

I don't blame you a bit. I feel that the sell-off today was a bit extreme.

I didn't realize that the SS has only issued 5 signals all year. That is pretty scary in itself.

Right Now I am on the Roller coaster and I hope it heads uphill tomorrow. The only bright side I can see right now is that the Futures are Up.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

 

[coolhand]

I've been watching the top 25% on the tracker and I find it interesting that no one has made a move in the last 3 days. I thought I might see some selling on strength today, or lightening up, but that has not happened.

Interesting.

I don't know what to make of that as I have no historical data, but I thought I'd mention it as an interesting side note.

 

[Handballer]

I noticed the same thing last night. I think I jumped the gun yesterday and fled to the high ground to early. I should of taken Birch's advise. He has been very acurate lately.

I've been watching the top 25% on the tracker and I find it interesting that no one has made a move in the last 3 days. I thought I might see some selling on strength today, or lightening up, but that has not happened.

Interesting.

I don't know what to make of that as I have no historical data, but I thought I'd mention it as an interesting side note.

 

[poolman]

I've been watching the top 25% on the tracker and I find it interesting that no one has made a move in the last 3 days. I thought I might see some selling on strength today, or lightening up, but that has not happened.

Interesting.

I don't know what to make of that as I have no historical data, but I thought I'd mention it as an interesting side note.

I lightened up today. I do respect the SS. I'm hoping I can ease myself out the best I can. As everyone knows it is not easy getting out with noon cut off time and 2 IFT'S per month.

I normally give a little more time for those interested but I was not exactly sure what to do.

I did notice Turbo23dog was able to make the move also. Good Job.

 

[WorkFE]

CH,
On the complete opposite side of that, those looking for an entry point balked at the idea that yesterday was sufficient. I'm confused in both directions.

 

[coolhand]

CH,
On the complete opposite side of that, those looking for an entry point balked at the idea that yesterday was sufficient. I'm confused in both directions.

I'm sure part of the problem may be a lack of IFTs, which severely limits decision making. By this time of month many have already used one IFT, so there's a reluctance to commit to a buy or sell.

 

[WorkFE]

True. That is the single biggest reason I stuck it out yesterday.
(having some breathing room certainly helps)

 

[JTH]

I've been watching the top 25% on the tracker and I find it interesting that no one has made a move in the last 3 days. I thought I might see some selling on strength today, or lightening up, but that has not happened.

Interesting.

I don't know what to make of that as I have no historical data, but I thought I'd mention it as an interesting side note.

I guess when you're up over 15% a -2% drop doesn't seem as scary. But if your down -7% like me, you'd probably run for shelter.

 

[coolhand]

I guess when you're up over 15% a -2% drop doesn't seem as scary. But if your down -7% like me, you'd probably run for shelter.

That's a good point too.

 

[Boghie]

I guess when you're up over 15% a -2% drop doesn't seem as scary. But if your down -7% like me, you'd probably run for shelter.

Personally, I think August will be August. Me thinks August will not be October, eh

Sturm and Drang.

We will most likely end up on August 30 where we started on August 1. It is probably not a market worth being in, but being in why get out. Why blow my last IFT on a partial bailout maneuver in the middle of the month.

I am far more concerned about September and October. Those are ugly months. But, with the sturm and drang of the town hall meetings one can expect government gridlock rather than government growth. And that is a good thing. A very good thing

 

[coolhand]

Latest look at the SS.

View attachment 6684

 

[turbo23dog]

You really do have to respect the SS signals. Amazing record this far...

 

[airlift]

CH,
I think that the 7 Sentinels is a a very good program. Aside from minimal "false" signals in this volatile and liquidity-driven market, it is coming through with flying colors. Naturally, I always like to corroborate as much as humanly possible if the signals are generally consistent with others' opinions or systems. This is the case with Uptrend, whose system was also calling for a correction. Thanks!

 

[coolhand]

CH,
I think that the 7 Sentinels is a a very good program. Aside from minimal "false" signals in this volatile and liquidity-driven market, it is coming through with flying colors. Naturally, I always like to corroborate as much as humanly possible if the signals are generally consistent with others' opinions or systems. This is the case with Uptrend, whose system was also calling for a correction. Thanks!

As Tom pointed out and as BT also alluded to, the system should be followed with minimal, if any, interpretation. My bad.

I've hit the reset button.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.profitconfidential.com/index.html

 

[coolhand]

Watch ADX/CMF. They're approaching sell-off territory.

View attachment 6686

 

[fedgolfer]

http://www.sevensentinels.com/Intermediate_Trend.html

on this intermediate term chart on the 7 sentinels website, if it was up to date it would show the SPX above the 13 month moving average, or, on the onset of a bull market. I realize that isn't the 7 sentinels trading strategy, but I thought I'd raise that point since the chart on the homepage (http://www.sevensentinels.com/Home.html) shows the May SSSS experience a high above that sell signal, and the July SSBS not being as optimally timed as previous SSBS. I know they say don't read into the fluff, but that could be because that is the onset of a bull. I'm curious to see if August is a lot like May regarding the SSSS and SSBS.

Oh, and doesn't the 21 day rule cancel out/invalidate the May sell signal? I'll have to re-read the rule.

 

[fedgolfer]

I love the $BPCOMPQ (13,.89) chart from 7 sentinels... although i'm leaning on the bull side of the fence that it may not pierce the lower bollinger like it did in may, leaving a possibility for a high above the sell signal.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p00210748467

 

[KevinD]

Why do your URL's not show up as links?