coolhand's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Hesitation is expensive.

 

[coolhand]

Hesitation is expensive.

In both directions.

 

[coolhand]

What is you gut feeling: If you were all out, would it be wise to go all in now or wait a bit?

We are due for a pullback. This being the end of the quarter makes it even more tricky after the big run-up we had. If you've got a trade left, I'd be looking for a better entry point. We could easily give back 5-8%, but still be good for more upside.

Of course, there's also the chance we don't get that much selling either. Right now, things are holding up pretty well, but it could change quickly.

Sorry if I'm sounding a little wishy-washy here, but this is still a bear market even with the buy signal from the seven sentinels.

 

[Warrenlm]

When in great doubt, a phrase I have heard on Squawk Box and from Oscar, before he got semi bullish, was "I'd rather be on the outside wishing I was in than on the inside wishing I was out".

 

[Warrenlm]

Hesitation is expensive.

But when you recast the timeframe as your grandchildren's retirement......that changes risk tolerance.

 

[coolhand]

Once a crook, always a crook.

These guys are just gamblers with our freakin' money!

http://www.nypost.com/seven/03252009/business/double_dippers_161157.htm?dbk

 

[coolhand]

When in great doubt, a phrase I have heard on Squawk Box and from Oscar, before he got semi bullish, was "I'd rather be on the outside wishing I was in than on the inside wishing I was out".

Yeah...after missing some of that up-leg, I'm okay with being an outsider at the moment. :cheesy:

 

[JTH]

Sorry if I'm sounding a little wishy-washy here, but this is still a bear market even with the buy signal from the seven sentinels.

I happen to agree here. I'd rather buy into a pullback where we test & bounce off of support. It's easy to get caught up in the market's daily drama, so here is a simple weekly chart.

If anyone was to enter in now would you be happy with the upside potential? I myself would like to see tested support before I'm ready to jump in.

View attachment 6103

 

[mdszj]

Coolhand

Just saw your post about the 7 Sentinels, thx for the link. I will check out further over the weekend. I am familiar with the trin and trinq and actually use the trin a lot for day trades in an IRA I have.

Right now I am 100 G and have been looking recently to get in C/S, but I am thinking time for a pullback - maybe in a couple days? (of course, probably when March is ended and then I have to use an April IFT).

How has using the 7 sentinels worked out for you in the past, especially with respect to the TSP and the trading constraints (2x/month)?

thx

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand

How has using the 7 sentinels worked out for you in the past, especially with respect to the TSP and the trading constraints (2x/month)?

thx

Although I have only recently begun to use them as part of my trading strategy, I have been watching them for over a year. Had I been using them during that time I would have done much better last year. They are an intermediate term indicator, so they actually work very well with our limited IFTs.

 

[CrabClaw]

Coolhand

Just saw your post about the 7 Sentinels, thx for the link.

Coolhand, I could not find the seven sentinels link in a brief search of your thread, could you repost it?

Thanks,
CC

 

[tsptalk]

CC -

Click on the link in his signature.

 

[CrabClaw]

Thanks..

 

[coolhand]

Pulled this off of Trader's Talk:

RealMoney.com runs a poll every weekend. I track it. It's a passable fade when they are really leaning.

At the moment, it would APPEAR that they are really, really leaning, with 79% Bears.

That said, I smell a big rat. They normally do a couple thousand votes, though recently they've been getting 4000 or even 5000, but today they show over 20,000 votes.

I think that someone is trying to game their poll.

I just don't think that there are that many Bears out there, who are Bullish on gold and Bearish on the banks and that they all decided to show up this weekend to vote in the poll.


Just a heads up.

 

[alevin]

RealMoney.com runs a poll every weekend. I track it. I smell a big rat. I think that someone is trying to game their poll.

I just don't think that there are that many Bears out there, who are Bullish on gold and Bearish on the banks and that they all decided to show up this weekend to vote in the poll.


Just a heads up.

I don't watch the RealMoney.com poll, but glad you've watched it long enough to spot the anomaly. Gold Star, friend, Gold Star and thanks!

 

[mdszj]

I checked out the 7 sentinels after the close today (3/30) and it looks like they are all giving a sell signal. However, it does not look like there was a divergence between price and CCI/MACD since both price as well as CCI/MACD went down today.

In a case like this do you just stay with the previous signal (long) until all the sell signals are accompanied by divergence in the chart?

Did I interpret this correctly?

thx

 

[coolhand]

I checked out the 7 sentinels after the close today (3/30) and it looks like they are all giving a sell signal. However, it does not look like there was a divergence between price and CCI/MACD since both price as well as CCI/MACD went down today.

In a case like this do you just stay with the previous signal (long) until all the sell signals are accompanied by divergence in the chart?

Did I interpret this correctly?

thx

I had mentioned in Uptrend's account talk a little while ago that Don (the guy who developed the SS) said the SS went to sell mode today, but that when I looked at them I didn't see it. I see it now. They look to be all in sell mode.

Don says he's going to get back to the board on the latest sell signal this evening, so I'm waiting to hear back from him.

At this moment however, I'm looking at this as a sell signal unless he thinks otherwise.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Cramer just said he doesn't expect the sell off to be a big one. I tend to agree. I might get a signal to buy back in Wed. Might not though..............

Man this place is totally changed after a year. Everybody wants you to buy something that worked for a couple of months. Capitalism at work!!

 

[coolhand]

Cramer just said he doesn't expect the sell off to be a big one. I tend to agree. I might get a signal to buy back in Wed. Might not though..............

Man this place is totally changed after a year. Everybody wants you to buy something that worked for a couple of months. Capitalism at work!!

I can tell you that the SS have been pretty reliable in the time I've been watching them.

From Don this evening:

I was somewhat surprised to see that the Seven Sentinels went to a sell signal at the close today. What started as a 60 minute sell on Friday morning developed into a full SSSS by today's close. I still regard this as a primary bear market, and thus must respect the SS signal. For the record, I am selling my SSO and QLD at tomorrows open, and buying SDS and DXD. Good Trading, D

 

[coolhand]

It is unusual for the Seven Sentinels to flip back to a sell as quick as this one did. Here is a question posed to Don about the Seven Sentinels and his reply:

"Don, are you saying the buy signal only lasted for only 14 days? Does the market go down as soon as the SSSS is triggered or can the market still rally for couple more weeks before going down?"

"YES. That surprised me. If the signal is valid, it will be immediate. Could pause (minor consolidation or one or two very small up days) then big push down, but that's about it. There have been times in the past where there was one more push to new marginal highs after the SSSS- then a new sell signal, but those occurred in the last primary bull market cycle. So while possible, of course, that scenario seems unlikely to me in this primary bear market."