coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The bears put up a fight last week to keep price from trending higher. I had said over the past week or so that the rising 50 dma was nearing a positive cross of the 200, which is technically bullish. This is certainly not lost on the bears, who are trying to turn this market around (lower). The 200 dma is also a key area in this fight.




Volume was elevated on Friday as price closed below the 200 dma on both charts. This is a another test of support. The trend is up, but a battle is in progress to change that. Momentum is falling



Breadth flipped negative on Friday's action.

TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral, which is not surprising. NAAIM was moderately bullish on Thursday.

The up and down action the past few weeks has traders and money managers running in both directions. With price now below the 200 dma once again, we may very well see the bulls mount another upside attack. NAAIM supports this possibility. I think we can expect more volatile action in the current market environment.

I remain bullish, but what happens this week may change my sentiment. We'll see how it goes.

 

[coolhand]

The bears tried to press their advantage today after tanking the market on Wednesday, but the bulls drove price back to the neutral line after early weakness and pressed price to the upside in the final hour of trading to give them a solid gain on the day.




Price is now in the middle of the short term trading range, but that 200 dma remains not far below. And with the 50 dma creeping closer to the 200, we may see more attempts to sell the market down. I am sure the bulls know this and may have their own counter to any serious selling. I'm not saying the selling will happen, but there is a lot going on in the chart that could influence price direction (as I've articulated in previous recent posts).



Breadth managed to turn up on the day and is back to a bullish condition (for now).

NAAIM came in less bullish, but as a group they are still bullish; just less so. The bears among them are showing little conviction. That's good news for the bulls.

It may be uncomfortable watching the price action of late, but the smart money certainly seems to indicate that the bulls are likely to prevail (to this point). For this reason, I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

While the battle over the 200 dma continues, the latest NAAIM reading shows a decrease in bullishness, but still bullish nonetheless. I am not seeing serious shorting among these money manager, so I suspect some managers that got less bullish went neutral rather than bearish.

Bottom line is that the reading is moderately bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The battle over the 200 dma is back in focus again as stock prices fell sharply lower today.




The 200 dma did not get tested on the SPX, but it did come close. The DWCPF shows that price did fall under it intraday, but managed to close pretty much right on it. Momentum is falling.



Breadth took a hit and is now neutral.

NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I don't get the impression that this market is going to find it easy to get back to new highs. The are battle lines drawn in the political sphere that can impact our financial health (positively or negatively). So, what I am saying here is that we may have more surprises (volatility) in the weeks ahead as the election draws ever closer. That may sound bearish, but that's not necessarily so. It just depends on control and so far the bulls have had that control.

I remain tentatively bullish till I see that next NAAIM reading.

 

[coolhand]

But the 50day is about to ‘golden cross’ the 200day.
Isn’t that supposed to be a green light for the market to surge ahead?

There is currently a battle for control over market direction. It may not be a daily battle, but the bears do not want a "golden cross", because it makes it more difficult for them to push price lower. This is because the bulls will take the golden cross as a positive sign, which it is, but it may not go unchallenged by the bears. The battle over the 200 dma is another example, and that battle is happening all over again today. The DWCPF is already under it, while the S&P is not far from falling under it.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

But the 50day is about to ‘golden cross’ the 200day.
Isn’t that supposed to be a green light for the market to surge ahead?

 

[coolhand]

We aren't moving fast, but if you're a bull, you are moving in the right direction right now. But I'd really like to see a breakout to the upside rather than dancing not far above the 200 dma.




Upward momentum is still rather flat. That 50 dma continues to close on the 200 (of course). A positive cross is likely to occur in about a week or so, assuming we don't sell down. That could trigger some volatility, but we'll see what happens when we get there.



Breadth is still bullish, of course.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

It wasn't an exciting trading day, but the bulls did manage to post gains by the close.




Price is tracking sideways right now, but as long as the 200 dma holds it won't be a problem. Note the rising 50 dma approaching the 200. We could see fireworks if it crosses or gets close to crossing. The bears don't want to see a bullish sign like that as it would likely create additional headwinds for them.



Breath ticked up a bit and remains bullish.

I remain bullish given the recent NAAIM reading and the successful test of support at the 200 dma more than a week ago.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

The market posted pretty decent gains last week, but it wasn't obvious early on how the week would go as the 200 dma was being attacked from the previous week. To this point, the bulls have so far defended that key average. Will it hold? Well, NAAIM came in pretty bullish and that's about as strong an indicator as I can point to. Keep in mind that the smart money does not have a crystal ball, but they do have contacts and info that we generally do not. That's part of what makes them smart money.




Price is holding up fairly well since the 200 dma test. I don't think the bears are going to go away, but they are not in control. However, volatility may remain with us for a time.



Breadth is still positive, but it is not marching higher at the moment.

TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish, which aligns with the bullish NAAIM reading.

I am bullish as we head into the new week.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

The tug-of-war continued (no surprise) today as the S&P 500 and Wilshire closed near the neutral line.




The charts remain bullish overall despite the volatilty.



Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

NAAIM got more bullish this week. I suspect that when the 200 dma held, they saw that as proof that the bulls had control. There is not much shorting going on with this group. So, they are solidly bullish.

I am moving from neutral to modestly bullish to just plain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Another somewhat volatile day and this time the bears won the battle. Losses were limited, however. Still, we can see that both sides continue to fight for control of price direction, but the bulls have been the winner over time.




Volume was lower than average. We still need to watch that 200 dma.



Breadth pulled back, but remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. That will help shape our perspective for another few days. I remain neutral to modestly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

We got another volatile session today, but this time the bulls took immediate control to the upside and bears tried to bring it back down. Of course, the bulls won the battle with some decent gains on the day.




We can see that about half the losses have been retraced and perhaps a bit more than that.



Breadth continues to rise and remains bullish.

So far, the 200 dma has held and the highs are not far off. I am looking for a continued bias higher, but the bears might have other ideas in the short term.

I am now neutral to modestly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Wow, keep your head down because the "bullets" are flying. The war between the bulls and bears continued today, with the bears drawing first blood, but the bulls fought back to bring price back into positive territory in late afternoon trade.




So far, the bulls appear to be winning the battle over support at the 200 dma to this point, but the tug-of-war may not be over.



Breadth ticked higher today and remains bullish.

I am remaining neutral given the volatile nature of trading at the moment, but I suspect the bulls will prevail eventually. That's just a hunch, but it's based on my perspective formed from sources outside financial circles.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls got jumped by the bears last week and all 3 TSP stock funds were hammered as a result. It isn't normal market behavior, but then again when was the last time we saw normal?




Support at the 200 dma on both charts was broken last Thursday, but the bulls bounced the market on Friday, though it was a volatile trading day. The bulls need to seize control soon or risk bigger losses.



Breadth bounced as well and remains bullish, but under attack.

So, NAAIM was less bullish last Thursday, but they were still bullish as a group. Thursday's decline puts their bullishness into question, but we only get 1 sentiment reading a week. Keep in mind that they got bullish when the 200 dma was claimed by the bulls. Now that same average is being challenged, so I suspect NAAIM may be neutral right now, but that's an educated guess.

I am going to a neutral stance on stocks until I can see whether the 200 dma does in fact provide support. This may be an interesting week.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I called recent selling pressure consolidation. Today, I'm calling it an attack (by the bears). The action was quite bearish.




That huge gap down is reminiscent of how the big sell-off started back in late February, but this one is more pronounced. Price closed below the 200 dma (support) on both charts. Momentum is falling (quickly). Volume was high (not good).



Breadth remains bullish (not today, but overall), but that's small consolidation given how fast it's fallen.

I reported earlier today that NAAIM was less bullish, but they were still bullish overall as a group. My concern is that something may have changed that may influence the smart money and we won't know about it till next Thursday.

I would not be so concerned except the action is suspicious. Like a switch was pulled (which is what I said at the start of February's deep decline).

It's possible that since the 200 dma was broken, a lot of bulls may have jumped off the train. It could be a bear trap. Maybe. Futures are flat to modestly bullish right now, but a lot technical damage has been done and it may take a few more trading days to get a better idea of where the market is going. If the market doesn't firm up fairly quickly, we could see much lower prices.

I was bullish largely because the smart money finally flipped bullish last week. And I am going to remain tentatively bullish for now, but this market has to convince me (soon) that there really is a floor under it.

 

[coolhand]

The bears have ambushed the bulls and the 200 dma is now being tested on the S&P.

NAAIM came in less bullish, but still bullish. This reading suggests the uptrend remains in place, but weaker bulls will get tested.

 

[coolhand]

Stocks continued to consolidate today as prices tumbled.




The S&P hasn't lost much, while the DWCPF has fared a bit worse, but that is not unusual for small-mid caps. I suspect that price may continue to consolidate, which could mean a price range for a time once a bottom has been made, followed by a resumption of the march to higher prices.



Breadth is also falling back, but it does remain bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market pulled back today, which was needed after the past week's worth of gains.




The charts remain quite bullish, of course.

Breadth dipped, but also remains very bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

This is a Spectacular run up. Never seen anything like this! Wow! :banana:

 

[coolhand]

The market picked up this week where it left off last week, with more gains.




Price is moving swiftly to the upside as the 200 dma fades into the distance on both charts. Volume remains heavy and momentum continued to build steam to the upside.



It's not often we see such a dramatic move in breadth on the NYSE. This chart says it all and it remains seriously bullish.

While a pullback could come at any time, it isn't wise to step in front of a moving train (that's picking up steam).

I remain bullish.