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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Wooo....hooo. Ride Em Cowboy!!! :cheesy:
coolhand
Well-known member
Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish
It sure does. But the bears seem to be desperate and may counter again. I do think that at some point they will be humiliated (bears). I just don't see them winning back control of price at this time.
It sure does. But the bears seem to be desperate and may counter again. I do think that at some point they will be humiliated (bears). I just don't see them winning back control of price at this time.
coolhand
Well-known member
Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish
If you haven't noticed, the up one day and down the next market has seen 6 reversals in as many tradings days (S&P). The slug-fest continued today with the bulls landing the latest punch.
Price on the S&P did close at a fresh high, though it had a higher intra-day high the prior trading day. I'd say the bears are losing this battle; albeit in drawn out fashion.
Breadth remains positive.
So, price is very close to hitting the June high (again). We have the smart money on our side, so closing above that June high is probably not far off.
I remain bullish.
If you haven't noticed, the up one day and down the next market has seen 6 reversals in as many tradings days (S&P). The slug-fest continued today with the bulls landing the latest punch.
Price on the S&P did close at a fresh high, though it had a higher intra-day high the prior trading day. I'd say the bears are losing this battle; albeit in drawn out fashion.
Breadth remains positive.
So, price is very close to hitting the June high (again). We have the smart money on our side, so closing above that June high is probably not far off.
I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
Things were going swimmingly for the bulls for a good part of the trading day, but as price hit the previous top on the S&P the bears came in and swamped the boat. Price fell well into negative territory as a result of the ambush.
So, nothing has really changed. The bulls and bears continue their tug-of-war (literally).
Breadth fell, but not by much and remains technically bullish.
The bears are not going to make it easy, which will get frustrating for many of us. But the smart money isn't betting on the downside and that's a big deal. Sure, things can change, but they aren't smart money for nothing. Sooner or later one side or the other is going to get pulled into the mud and I'm betting it's the bears. I just don't know the timing.
That's where things stand with the current indicators. I remain bullish.
So, nothing has really changed. The bulls and bears continue their tug-of-war (literally).
Breadth fell, but not by much and remains technically bullish.
The bears are not going to make it easy, which will get frustrating for many of us. But the smart money isn't betting on the downside and that's a big deal. Sure, things can change, but they aren't smart money for nothing. Sooner or later one side or the other is going to get pulled into the mud and I'm betting it's the bears. I just don't know the timing.
That's where things stand with the current indicators. I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bulls had a good week last week with Friday's action closing out on a positive note.
There is no breakout yet, but price does remain at or near the top of its trading range. Momentum remains rather flat. The 50 dma has now crossed the 200 on the S&P 500. The DWCPF is not far behind.
Breadth rose on Friday and put the signal back in a bullish configuration, but it also remains in a sideways pattern.
TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish. We already saw NAAIM get decidedly bullish on Thursday. I have to expect more positive action on this sentiment. Something (news) has to push price higher and get the market back on an upward bias. We do have resistance overhead, but NAAIM suggests this is not likely to be a problem. Will that upside catalyst happen this week? I hope so, but it may take longer.
I remain bullish.
There is no breakout yet, but price does remain at or near the top of its trading range. Momentum remains rather flat. The 50 dma has now crossed the 200 on the S&P 500. The DWCPF is not far behind.
Breadth rose on Friday and put the signal back in a bullish configuration, but it also remains in a sideways pattern.
TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish. We already saw NAAIM get decidedly bullish on Thursday. I have to expect more positive action on this sentiment. Something (news) has to push price higher and get the market back on an upward bias. We do have resistance overhead, but NAAIM suggests this is not likely to be a problem. Will that upside catalyst happen this week? I hope so, but it may take longer.
I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
The market remains caught in a back and forth struggle between the bulls and bears for control of market direction. While price has largely been tracking sideways in a range since early June, it is currently dancing around at the upper end of that range (getting ready for a upward push?).
The good news for today is that the bulls closed the market well off the lows of the day. And there is no technical damage, just a sideways battle.
Breadth flipped negative, but we can see by the chart that this signal has also been up and down, so until this sideways pattern is broken, I can't get excited about a positive or negative signal by this measure.
But as I posted earlier this afternoon, the bulls got good news in that NAAIM got more bullish as long positions were added to and short positions were reduced. The bears among them are not excited about their prospects for making money on the short side. But the bulls are highly leveraged on the long side. Remember, this is smart money. I get the impression that they may know that something is coming (news) that is going to push this market to the upside. That doesn't necessarily mean a moon shot, as we have no way of knowing how much of a rally we might see (assuming we do indeed see one). NAAIM is a sentiment indicator, and a pretty good one for the most part. And while it was modestly bullish last week, it is at least moderately so now. Their long positioning in stocks is obvious.
It's been about 5 weeks since the June peak, maybe a breakout is getting near? It's very possible and even likely based on the NAAIM reading. It's all about risk and right now risk favors the bulls.
I remain bullish.
The good news for today is that the bulls closed the market well off the lows of the day. And there is no technical damage, just a sideways battle.
Breadth flipped negative, but we can see by the chart that this signal has also been up and down, so until this sideways pattern is broken, I can't get excited about a positive or negative signal by this measure.
But as I posted earlier this afternoon, the bulls got good news in that NAAIM got more bullish as long positions were added to and short positions were reduced. The bears among them are not excited about their prospects for making money on the short side. But the bulls are highly leveraged on the long side. Remember, this is smart money. I get the impression that they may know that something is coming (news) that is going to push this market to the upside. That doesn't necessarily mean a moon shot, as we have no way of knowing how much of a rally we might see (assuming we do indeed see one). NAAIM is a sentiment indicator, and a pretty good one for the most part. And while it was modestly bullish last week, it is at least moderately so now. Their long positioning in stocks is obvious.
It's been about 5 weeks since the June peak, maybe a breakout is getting near? It's very possible and even likely based on the NAAIM reading. It's all about risk and right now risk favors the bulls.
I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
NAAIM came in sharply more bullish today. The bears among them have backed off on their shorts, which were not substantial to begin with. My guess is that they collectively may be expecting some news to hit over the next few days that is likely to push stocks higher. This is just an educated guess, but technically, stocks may be coiling for a jump past the June high. We are, after all, still in a bull market. So, those are my thoughts for this week's reading.
coolhand
Well-known member
Market Snaps Back - Posted by Coolhand
The bears could not keep it going after yesterday's moderate sell-off as the bulls got back about half of Tuesday's losses.
View attachment 46624
View attachment 46622
There isn't much to say about the charts. Price continues to meander up and down, though it does seem to be biased higher at a very slow rate. Resistance is not far above. The 50 dma continues to rise and is about even with the 200 dma on the S&P.
Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish, but continues to track in a sideways fashion.
NAAIM reports tomorrow, so we'll get a fresh read from the smart money. I remain bullish.
The bears could not keep it going after yesterday's moderate sell-off as the bulls got back about half of Tuesday's losses.
View attachment 46624
View attachment 46622
There isn't much to say about the charts. Price continues to meander up and down, though it does seem to be biased higher at a very slow rate. Resistance is not far above. The 50 dma continues to rise and is about even with the 200 dma on the S&P.
Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish, but continues to track in a sideways fashion.
NAAIM reports tomorrow, so we'll get a fresh read from the smart money. I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
As I said yesterday, the market was due for a pullback. Obviously, we got a pullback today.
Price didn't fall a lot, but weakness may not be over yet either. Volume is still on the low side. The 50 dma is now in the process of having a positive cross through the 200 dma. I am not anticipating that this by itself will drive a rally, but we should note that it is happening as it is bullish.
Breadth remains bullish, but did fall on the negative action.
So, price still remains caught between the June peak (about a month ago) and the 200 dma area. Maybe that 50 dma cross will have a more immediate impact than I am anticipating, but I'd rather see where NAAIM is when the next sentiment survey is released. I remain bullish.
Price didn't fall a lot, but weakness may not be over yet either. Volume is still on the low side. The 50 dma is now in the process of having a positive cross through the 200 dma. I am not anticipating that this by itself will drive a rally, but we should note that it is happening as it is bullish.
Breadth remains bullish, but did fall on the negative action.
So, price still remains caught between the June peak (about a month ago) and the 200 dma area. Maybe that 50 dma cross will have a more immediate impact than I am anticipating, but I'd rather see where NAAIM is when the next sentiment survey is released. I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bulls kept the rally going today, posting solid gains by the close.
Price on both charts continues to put the 200 dma further in the rear view mirror, but potential resistance looms not far above. The goods news is that price has broken above the medium term range, so now its the previous peak made in June that needs to be tested and hopefully broken to the upside. Volume remains on the light side, but momentum is starting to turn up a bit.
Breadth remains bullish.
We could see a pullback anytime now, given how much the market has recovered over the past week or so. Any pullback would likely be a buying opportunity, but it could be a tricky play with resistance overhead. Then again, it may not matter if the bulls power this market forward. We'll see what happens this week.
I remain bullish.
Price on both charts continues to put the 200 dma further in the rear view mirror, but potential resistance looms not far above. The goods news is that price has broken above the medium term range, so now its the previous peak made in June that needs to be tested and hopefully broken to the upside. Volume remains on the light side, but momentum is starting to turn up a bit.
Breadth remains bullish.
We could see a pullback anytime now, given how much the market has recovered over the past week or so. Any pullback would likely be a buying opportunity, but it could be a tricky play with resistance overhead. Then again, it may not matter if the bulls power this market forward. We'll see what happens this week.
I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bulls have had a good week as we head into the holiday weekend.
Price is back to the top of the trading range on the S&P, while a bit under it on the DWCPF. Volume was underwhelming.
Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.
As I pointed out in my previous post today, NAAIM got less bullish, but not by a lot. Overall, they are still collectively bullish, just modestly so. I noted that the bulls are much more leveraged than the bears, which is means there is more conviction among the bulls.
I anticipate more back and forth action on the latest NAAIM reading, but remain bullish overall.
Price is back to the top of the trading range on the S&P, while a bit under it on the DWCPF. Volume was underwhelming.
Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.
As I pointed out in my previous post today, NAAIM got less bullish, but not by a lot. Overall, they are still collectively bullish, just modestly so. I noted that the bulls are much more leveraged than the bears, which is means there is more conviction among the bulls.
I anticipate more back and forth action on the latest NAAIM reading, but remain bullish overall.
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coolhand
Well-known member
Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish
The latest NAAIM reading shows a small decline in bullishness and modest rise in short positions. The reading overall looks modestly bullish. It shows bulls much more leveraged than bears (conviction). However, because they are not overly bullish as a group, I anticipate that this market will continue to see up/down action. The trend remains up, so we don't want to lose sight of that. We just can't get impatient or complacent.
The latest NAAIM reading shows a small decline in bullishness and modest rise in short positions. The reading overall looks modestly bullish. It shows bulls much more leveraged than bears (conviction). However, because they are not overly bullish as a group, I anticipate that this market will continue to see up/down action. The trend remains up, so we don't want to lose sight of that. We just can't get impatient or complacent.
coolhand
Well-known member
Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish
We got a choppy day today.
Price eked higher by the close. Momentum is flat. Price is also creeping toward the upper end of its current medium term range (past few weeks). Note that the 50 dma is getting very close to having a positive cross of the 200 dma on the S&P 500.
Breadth was flat, but remains bullish overall. Keep in mind that while it's technically bullish it's not tracking higher (like price).
NAAIM reports tomorrow.
So far, the bulls have kept the bears at bay. I remain bullish.
We got a choppy day today.
Price eked higher by the close. Momentum is flat. Price is also creeping toward the upper end of its current medium term range (past few weeks). Note that the 50 dma is getting very close to having a positive cross of the 200 dma on the S&P 500.
Breadth was flat, but remains bullish overall. Keep in mind that while it's technically bullish it's not tracking higher (like price).
NAAIM reports tomorrow.
So far, the bulls have kept the bears at bay. I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish
A headline I just saw late this afternoon said that the market just closed out the best quarter in decades. I would not have expected that if I wasn't told.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
The bulls kept it going today as price closed out with decent gains.
Price is now in the middle of the current short term range.
Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.
So far, so good for the bulls, but they need to eventually push price past the previous peak. I still believe we get there eventually.
I remain bullish.
A headline I just saw late this afternoon said that the market just closed out the best quarter in decades. I would not have expected that if I wasn't told.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
The bulls kept it going today as price closed out with decent gains.
Price is now in the middle of the current short term range.
Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.
So far, so good for the bulls, but they need to eventually push price past the previous peak. I still believe we get there eventually.
I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
Yesterday, I said that since price fell (closed) below the 200 dma that the bulls may mount another upside attack. Sure enough, the week started out with a rally that pushed price back above the 200 dma. Maybe there's more.
So, price has now closed above the 200 dma on both charts, but not by a lot. Momentum has not yet turned back up either, but it's a start if the bulls continue to press. I still think we may be in for a battle.
Breadth got back into a positive configuration, but with price more or less tracking sideways (in volatile fashion) over the past 3 weeks or so, it doesn't mean a whole lot.
I suspect the battle over control of price will continue. If the bulls can push price to a new high, which is still at least 150 points higher, it may weaken the bears resolve. I do believe we get there eventually.
I remain bullish, but not complacent.
So, price has now closed above the 200 dma on both charts, but not by a lot. Momentum has not yet turned back up either, but it's a start if the bulls continue to press. I still think we may be in for a battle.
Breadth got back into a positive configuration, but with price more or less tracking sideways (in volatile fashion) over the past 3 weeks or so, it doesn't mean a whole lot.
I suspect the battle over control of price will continue. If the bulls can push price to a new high, which is still at least 150 points higher, it may weaken the bears resolve. I do believe we get there eventually.
I remain bullish, but not complacent.
