coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

We got another shoot out today, with the bears once again striking early, but the bulls countering later in the trading session to send price back near the neutral line (mixed).




The market is in a range around the June high. Momentum is flat.



Breadth dipped again and you can see that this chart is ragged, but biased higher (and bullish).

So, the action is not inspiring to bulls or bears, but the bulls are showing a lot of resilience. And as we saw with the latest NAAIM reading yesterday, the smart money expects the bulls to eventually win and march price higher.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

The bears jumped on the market at the open, gapping price lower after the opening bell. But they couldn't press the downside as the bulls were able to begin recovering the market after about an hour of trading.




And while the bulls weren't able to get the indexes into the green, they didn't close it all that far below the neutral line either (resilience).

Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

The latest sentiment reading from NAAIM showed little change (bullish), but I did note that the bears among them reduced their short exposure. This group is very bullish overall.

The upside bias remains, but the back and forth battle for control of market direction continues. The smart money says the bulls will continue to win that battle (eventually).

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

The latest NAAIM reading was largely unchanged, but I did note that what little shorting was going on among this smart money was reduced again. In other words, these money managers expect higher prices (eventually).

Today's action was just more of the slug-fest we've come to expect between the bulls and bears. Let's see how the market ends the day as we may have bottomed (today).

 

[coolhand]

The bulls posted some pretty good gains today. In fact, the DWCPF was up over 2%.




That index (DWCPF) saw price close just above its previous closing high by just a hair. The S&P is not far from its own high. But momentum is largely flat and that's why price seems to be moving in a sideways fashion.



Breadth posted a fresh high and remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The way things are going, a fresh all-time high on the S&P may take till Christmas. Yes, we are biasing higher, but it's like watching the grass grow.




Price continues to test support at the June peak.

Breadth dipped, but remains bullish and we know that the smart money is bullish.

I'd like to see the bulls take more control, but the indicators still point higher.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls began the new week by erasing some of the losses from late last week.




So, price is trying to retake the June high again. Aside from the sometimes up/down nature of the market, the indicators continue to point to an overall bias to the upside. Breadth ticked higher today and remains bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The week started off well enough as the market began to add to gains from the previous week, but the bears sent the market lower at the end of the week. The S&P and DWCPF both closed out with a modest weekly loss overall.




Still, the charts remain bullish. No market goes straight up and we do have a bias higher over the intermediate to longer term.



Breadth has turned down, but does remain bullish.

The bullish NAAIM reading does not generally give quick gratification. I use it to get a sense of weekly expectations. With the smart money bullish, I expect the upward trend to continue. TSP Talk remains bullish as well.

I continue to remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Market Snaps Back - Posted by Coolhand

Today's pullback was not unusual. The market had advanced enough over the past few trading days to expect one.




It appears that price is testing support at the February peak (was resistance) on the S&P 500. The DWCPF had not established itself above the February peak for very long, so I would not call it support yet. I will say that the DWCPF held up better than the S&P today, so that's a bullish aspect for today's trading action.



Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

NAAIM came in a bit more bullish this week. Aside from anticipated pullbacks here and there, I continue to expect price to bias to the upside.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in a bit more bullish this week. This market should continue to edge higher.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I like NAAIM. What I really value is that it is the sentiment of companies in this group that report their exposure to equities each week. This Investor's Sentiment (contrarian)indicator often seems more right than wrong, although I've never studied the correlation to actual gains or losses that occur within a week of the sentiment reported.

https://financestrategysystem.com/naaim-exposure-index/

 

[Bullitt]

If we're in a melt up, I hope we're closer to the beginning than end.

RE: NAAIM; certainly more of an art than a science and we'll see how many algo traders piled in (or bought to cover) this week with the S&P 500 breakout. Weekly gap at 3350 to be filled sooner than later.

 

[coolhand]

BTW, the melt up was predicted by the NAAIM reading. And to think their website warns you not to use their sentiment for determining market direction.

Yeah, right.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Looks like we may have a melt up in progress as the bulls closed out the session with moderate gains today.




The charts look very good right now.



Breadth looks very good too.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Price continued to advance today, though a late day swoon erased the bulk of session gains.




We aren't off to the races, but as long as price is steadily moving higher who's going to complain? There is still more resistance above that will need to be dealt with, but I doubt it will happen in the short term. The February peak (all-time high) is near the 3400 mark on the S&P, so the index has about 140 points to go yet to get to that level (assuming we get there).



Breadth has joined the party with a fresh high and remains bullish.

Aside from normal pullbacks associated with a price that is advancing overall, I see no reason not to remain bullish. A fresh NAAIM reading is just 2 days away.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Did you notice? The S&P 500 hit a fresh high today, and yes it was above the June peak. Hopefully, it sticks.




While the S&P has had a modest breakout, the DWCPF is still a hair away from it's own fresh high. I'm sure it will get there.



Breadth dipped very modestly, but remains bullish.

So, it's playing out to plan so far. I fully expect more gains in the future, but of course it won't be a straight shot. I remain bullish.

 

[nnuut]

NO, NO, NO, I don't smoke it No more!

 

[coolhand]

The bulls are knocking on the door of a potential upside breakout.




We can see that price on both charts are close to the June peak, which is resistance.



Breadth looks much the same, with the signal near the June peak.

The TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish again. NAAIM is also bullish and that's the one that counts in my book. We didn't get a breakout last week, but the market is poised for one at any time. Of course, we could see a rejection at resistance, but I am of the opinion that as long as the smart money is bullish, we should be too.

 

[coolhand]

The upside breakout remained elusive today as stocks pulled back a bit.




Looking at the charts we can see that price remains not far off the June peak. Volume was lower than usual. It's like the market is waiting for something. Some bit of news before popping higher.

Breadth dipped modestly, but remains bullish.

NAAIM came in a bit more bullish. You won't find many bears among them right now.

I remain steadfastly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in a bit more bullish than last week. It remains a green light for stocks by this smart money sentiment.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Market Snaps Back - Posted by Coolhand

The bulls followed up yesterday's right hook with an upper cut today, but the bears didn't quite go down. They were heavily staggered though with a trickle of blood oozing down the left side of the nose. The referee had to step in and check to see if the bears could go on, but then the bell rang and the trading session ended. :laugh:




Price on the S&P bumped up against resistance at the June peak again, and while it didn't break it, it closed pretty much right on it. The DWCPF is close behind.



Breadth is rising and is now looking decidedly bullish to my eye.

What I am seeing has me thinking an upside breakout may be coming very soon. It might even be imminent. And tomorrow we'll get a fresh NAAIM read.

The bears are wounded and battered. Can they stop the bulls? I'm thinking not, but we'll know soon enough. I remain bullish.